------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/desinils/Desirée's PCR team Dropbox/Desirée Nilsson/2012-2014/Forskningsprojekt/
> Jihadist Peace/Negotiation and religion/Islamist Claims & Recurrence/Submission-ISQ/Resubmission-ISQ
> /Intractability_final_submitted/Replication files-Intractability-ISQ/Intractability-replication-zip-
> files/Log-Intractability-ISQ.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  22 Jun 2021, 10:51:14

. do "/Users/desinils/Desirée's PCR team Dropbox/Desirée Nilsson/2012-2014/Forskningsprojekt/Jihadis
> t Peace/Negotiation and religion/Islamist Claims & Recurrence/Submission-ISQ/Resubmission-ISQ/Intrac
> tability_final_submitted/Replication files-Intractability-ISQ/Intractability-replication-zip-files/T
> ermination-analysis-ISQ.do"

. clear all

. 
. /***************************************************************************************************
> *
>                 
> Replication file 1 out of 3 for:
> "The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies: Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War"
> Desirée Nilsson & Isak Svensson
> International Studies Quarterly
> Last updated: 20 April 2021
> Note that dyadep 18502 has been replaced with 28502 due to an error in original termination data
> 
> ***************************************************************************************************/
. 
. 
. *To run the do-file you need to install the following:
. 
. *1. To generate summary statistics:
. //ssc install unique, replace all
. 
. *2. To generate graphs:
. //ssc install blindschemes, replace all
. //set scheme plottig, permanently
. 
. *3. To generate tables: 
. //ssc install outreg
. //ssc install outreg2
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
. 
. use "Termination-data-ISQ.dta"

. sort dyadid year

. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
. ************************************************
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_con) enter(time start_of_segment) failure
> (term==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  term == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_con

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      1,923  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      1,923  observations remaining, representing
        386  subjects
        519  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  2,393.136  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
. ************************************************
. 
. 
. *Islamist conflicts and termination
. unique dyadid if islamist==1 | islamist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  386
Number of records is  1923

. *386
. unique dyadid if islamist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  64
Number of records is  398

. *64
. unique dyadid if islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  322
Number of records is  1525

. *322
. unique dyadid if term==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  367
Number of records is  519

. *367
. 
. 
. *Islamist conflicts and foreign fighters*
. unique dyadid if foreignfighter==1 & islamist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  30
Number of records is  205

. *30 out of 64, 47%
. unique dyadid if islamist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  64
Number of records is  398

. 
. unique dyadid if foreignfighter==1 & islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  54
Number of records is  315

. *54 out of 322, 17%
. unique dyadid if islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  322
Number of records is  1525

. 
. 
. *Islamist conflicts and govmilsupport*
. unique dyadid if govmilsupport==1 & islamist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  28
Number of records is  138

. * 28 out of 64, 44%
. unique dyadid if islamist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  64
Number of records is  398

. 
. unique dyadid if govmilsupport==1 & islamist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  48
Number of records is  156

. * 48 out of 322, 15%
. unique dyadid if islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  322
Number of records is  1525

. 
. 
. *Leftist*
. unique dyadid if leftist==1 //61
Number of unique values of dyadid is  61
Number of records is  544

. unique dyadid if leftist==0 //321
Number of unique values of dyadid is  321
Number of records is  1368

. 
. 
. *Leftist and foreign fighters*
. unique dyadid if foreignfighter==1 & leftist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  11
Number of records is  152

. *11 out of 61, 18%
. unique dyadid if leftist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  61
Number of records is  544

. 
. unique dyadid if foreignfighter==1 & leftist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  72
Number of records is  367

. *72 out of 321, 22%
. unique dyadid if leftist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  321
Number of records is  1368

. 
. 
. *Leftist and govmilsupport*
. unique dyadid if govmilsupport==1 & leftist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  8
Number of records is  46

. * 8 out of 61, 13%
. unique dyadid if leftist==1 //
Number of unique values of dyadid is  61
Number of records is  544

. 
. unique dyadid if govmilsupport==1 & leftist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  69
Number of records is  248

. *69 out of 321, 21,5%
. unique dyadid if leftist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  321
Number of records is  1368

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CREATE LABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. label variable term "Termination"

. label variable islamist "Islamist claim"

. label variable territory "Territory"

. label variable duration "Duration"

. label variable intensitylevel "War"

. label variable number_group "Number of groups"

. label variable strongstart "Strong rebels"

. label variable anostart "Anocracy"

. label variable lngdppcstart "GDP per capita"

. label variable lnpopstart "Population"

. label variable muslimajstart "Muslim majority"

. label variable oilstart "Oil"

. label variable youthstartap "Youth bulge/adult pop."

. label variable anocracy "Anocracy over time"

. label variable lngdppc "GDP per capita over time"

. label variable lnpop "Population over time"

. label variable foreignfighter "Foreign fighters"

. label variable govmilsupport "Government support"

. label variable leftist "Leftist"

. label variable nonislamistrel "Non-Islamist religious claims"

. label variable muslimid "Muslim identity"

. label variable secsup_govgov "Government secondary support"

. label variable rebextpartdummy "Rebel support"

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CONTROL VARIABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. global X1 territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart

. global X2 _yrs _yrs_sq _yrs_cu

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A1
. ************************************************
. 
. *Summary statistics*
. su islamist territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart lngdppcstart anostart lnpopsta
> rt foreignfighter duration intensitylevel leftist term muslimid nonislamistrel anocracy lngdppc lnpo
> p govmilsupport number_group secsup_govgov rebextpartdummy

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    islamist |      1,923    .2069683     .405238          0          1
   territory |      1,923    .4321373    .4955021          0          1
 strongstart |      1,830    .0721311    .2587757          0          1
    oilstart |      1,853    10.83837    9.993383          0   25.31365
youthstartap |      1,755    32.53959    4.037659   15.64565    39.4916
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
muslimajst~t |      1,923    .3359334    .4724386          0          1
lngdppcstart |      1,561     6.58538    1.317979   4.265055   10.62235
    anostart |      1,731    .3564414    .4790861          0          1
  lnpopstart |      1,816     16.9939    1.477058   12.81063   20.99929
foreignfig~r |      1,923    .2704108    .4442876          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    duration |      1,923    4.955278    6.622737          0         40
intensityl~l |      1,923    1.199688    .3998698          1          2
     leftist |      1,912    .2845188     .451303          0          1
        term |      1,923    .2698908    .4440183          0          1
    muslimid |      1,923    .4945398    .5001002          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
nonislamis~l |      1,923    .0920437    .2891628          0          1
    anocracy |      1,820    .3456044    .4756956          0          1
     lngdppc |      1,887     6.66904    1.362328   4.255866   10.72365
       lnpop |      1,887    17.14472    1.483506   12.81063   20.99929
govmilsupp~t |      1,923    .1528861    .3599713          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
number_group |      1,923     1.76131    1.299852          1          8
secsup_gov~v |      1,787    .0844992    .2782128          0          1
rebextpart~y |      1,731    .1686886    .3745849          0          1

. //keep term islamist territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart lngdppcstart anostart
>  lnpopstart foreignfighter duration intensitylevel leftist term muslimid nonislamistrel anocracy lng
> dppc lnpop govmilsupport number_group secsup_govgov rebextpartdummy
. //outreg2 using appendix-A1.doc, replace sum(log) keep (term islamist territory strongstart oilstart
>  youthstartap muslimajstart lngdppcstart anostart lnpopstart foreignfighter duration intensitylevel 
> leftist muslimid nonislamistrel anocracy lngdppc lnpop govmilsupport number_group secsup_govgov rebe
> xtpartdummy)
. //reload data after this line
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 1
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*     
. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       11.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1814.5599             Prob > chi2      =      0.0783

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7055442   .0951759    -2.59   0.010     .5416261    .9190706
    territory |   .9617325   .1099845    -0.34   0.733     .7686173    1.203368
  strongstart |   1.125558   .1531191     0.87   0.385     .8621278    1.469481
     oilstart |   1.003349   .0042407     0.79   0.429     .9950717    1.011695
 youthstartap |   1.016061   .0123997     1.31   0.192     .9920467    1.040657
muslimajstart |   1.074298    .109897     0.70   0.484     .8791233    1.312803
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using termination-t1.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standa
> rd errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.706              
                                                          (0.095)**            
                       Territory                            0.962              
                                                           (0.110)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.126              
                                                           (0.153)             
                       Oil                                  1.003              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.016              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.074              
                                                           (0.110)             
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.5858
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.5599
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.5599
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.5599

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       11.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1814.5599             Prob > chi2      =      0.0783

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.3487859   .1348971    -2.59   0.010    -.6131794   -.0843924
    territory |   -.039019   .1143608    -0.34   0.733    -.2631621    .1851241
  strongstart |   .1182787   .1360384     0.87   0.385    -.1483518    .3849091
     oilstart |   .0033434   .0042265     0.79   0.429    -.0049405    .0116272
 youthstartap |   .0159336   .0122037     1.31   0.192    -.0079851    .0398524
muslimajstart |   .0716674   .1022965     0.70   0.484    -.1288302    .2721649
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.04810         0.96        1         0.3278
      territory   |     -0.00994         0.04        1         0.8476
      strongstart |     -0.03767         0.40        1         0.5292
      oilstart    |     -0.04688         0.60        1         0.4393
      youthstartap|      0.03449         0.41        1         0.5198
      muslimajst~t|      0.01427         0.08        1         0.7772
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.89        6         0.6914
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * FIGURE 1
. ************************************************
. 
. *Kaplan meier graph with confidence intervals, strata not possible
. sts graph, legend (cols(1)) by(islamist) ci 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

. *minor adjustments made manually, e.g.  set background region to grayscale 15, set labels*
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 2
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       21.87
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.9134             Prob > chi2      =      0.0052

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |    .834758   .1114119    -1.35   0.176     .6426197    1.084344
     territory |   .8504494   .0988621    -1.39   0.163     .6771718    1.068066
   strongstart |   1.182317   .1686339     1.17   0.240      .893978    1.563654
      oilstart |    1.00035    .004364     0.08   0.936     .9918336     1.00894
  youthstartap |   1.014797   .0122578     1.22   0.224     .9910539    1.039108
 muslimajstart |   1.133752   .1177762     1.21   0.227     .9248981    1.389769
foreignfighter |    .746836   .0848706    -2.57   0.010     .5977155    .9331597
 govmilsupport |   .6616679   .1005202    -2.72   0.007     .4912765    .8911567
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using termination-t2.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standa
> rd errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.835              
                                                           (0.111)             
                       Territory                            0.850              
                                                           (0.099)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.182              
                                                           (0.169)             
                       Oil                                  1.000              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.015              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.134              
                                                           (0.118)             
                       Foreign fighters                     0.747              
                                                           (0.085)*            
                       Government support                   0.662              
                                                          (0.101)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoe
> nfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9648
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9134
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9134
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9134

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       21.87
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.9134             Prob > chi2      =      0.0052

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |  -.1806135   .1334661    -1.35   0.176    -.4422021    .0809752
     territory |  -.1619904   .1162469    -1.39   0.163    -.3898302    .0658494
   strongstart |   .1674757   .1426301     1.17   0.240    -.1120741    .4470255
      oilstart |   .0003504   .0043625     0.08   0.936    -.0081999    .0089007
  youthstartap |   .0146883   .0120791     1.22   0.224    -.0089863     .038363
 muslimajstart |   .1255328   .1038818     1.21   0.227    -.0780717    .3291373
foreignfighter |  -.2919097   .1136402    -2.57   0.010    -.5146405    -.069179
 govmilsupport |  -.4129916   .1519194    -2.72   0.007    -.7107482    -.115235
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.04380         0.74        1         0.3913
      territory   |     -0.01084         0.04        1         0.8362
      strongstart |     -0.04279         0.57        1         0.4488
      oilstart    |     -0.04814         0.68        1         0.4095
      youthstartap|      0.02729         0.25        1         0.6176
      muslimajst~t|      0.02211         0.19        1         0.6605
      foreignfig~r|      0.01860         0.11        1         0.7448
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.00771         0.02        1         0.8856
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.47        8         0.8123
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 3
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox leftist $X1 govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       40.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1803.5009             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   .5982067   .0704492    -4.36   0.000     .4749058    .7535205
     territory |   .7375976   .0861563    -2.61   0.009     .5866696    .9273538
   strongstart |   1.085027   .1680383     0.53   0.598     .8009671    1.469827
      oilstart |   1.001959   .0040273     0.49   0.626      .994097    1.009884
  youthstartap |   1.014788   .0130043     1.15   0.252     .9896175    1.040599
 muslimajstart |   1.015428   .1023842     0.15   0.879     .8333429    1.237299
 govmilsupport |   .5831273   .0858111    -3.67   0.000     .4370221    .7780783
foreignfighter |   .6874913   .0809657    -3.18   0.001     .5457847    .8659903
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using termination-t3.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standa
> rd errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Leftist                              0.598              
                                                          (0.070)**            
                       Territory                            0.738              
                                                          (0.086)**            
                       Strong rebels                        1.085              
                                                           (0.168)             
                       Oil                                  1.002              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.015              
                                                           (0.013)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.015              
                                                           (0.102)             
                       Government support                   0.583              
                                                          (0.086)**            
                       Foreign fighters                     0.687              
                                                          (0.081)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1 govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoen
> feld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1803.5815
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1803.5009
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1803.5009
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1803.5009

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       40.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1803.5009             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |  -.5138189   .1177674    -4.36   0.000    -.7446388    -.282999
     territory |  -.3043569   .1168066    -2.61   0.009    -.5332936   -.0754202
   strongstart |   .0816046   .1548702     0.53   0.598    -.2219354    .3851445
      oilstart |   .0019575   .0040195     0.49   0.626    -.0059205    .0098355
  youthstartap |   .0146797   .0128148     1.15   0.252    -.0104367    .0397962
 muslimajstart |   .0153103   .1008286     0.15   0.879    -.1823101    .2129306
 govmilsupport |  -.5393498   .1471566    -3.67   0.000    -.8277716   -.2509281
foreignfighter |  -.3747062   .1177698    -3.18   0.001    -.6055308   -.1438815
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.03392         0.39        1         0.5348
      territory   |     -0.02025         0.15        1         0.6990
      strongstart |     -0.04968         0.95        1         0.3308
      oilstart    |     -0.04324         0.46        1         0.4984
      youthstartap|      0.03725         0.52        1         0.4717
      muslimajst~t|      0.05081         0.97        1         0.3256
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.00177         0.00        1         0.9742
      foreignfig~r|      0.01431         0.07        1         0.7865
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.14        8         0.7423
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. ****ROBUSTNESS****
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A2
. ************************************************
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A3
. ************************************************
. 
. *alternative survival models*
. 
. *Model 1* weibull instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       18.00
Log pseudolikelihood =   -534.81558             Prob > chi2      =      0.0062

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .6386113   .0896092    -3.20   0.001     .4850616    .8407681
    territory |   .8591459   .1163668    -1.12   0.262     .6588342     1.12036
  strongstart |   1.191427   .2613266     0.80   0.425      .775114    1.831341
     oilstart |   1.002542   .0053887     0.47   0.637      .992036     1.01316
 youthstartap |   1.016729   .0157398     1.07   0.284      .986343    1.048051
muslimajstart |   1.171828   .1409388     1.32   0.187     .9257372    1.483338
        _cons |   .1522651   .0823894    -3.48   0.001     .0527256    .4397224
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_p |   -.071308   .0313623    -2.27   0.023     -.132777    -.009839
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            p |    .931175   .0292038                      .8756603    .9902092
          1/p |   1.073912   .0336804                      1.009888    1.141995
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A3a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                 analysis time when record ends  Islamist claim             0.639   
                                                                          (0.090)** 
                                                 Territory                  0.859   
                                                                           (0.116)  
                                                 Strong rebels              1.191   
                                                                           (0.261)  
                                                 Oil                        1.003   
                                                                           (0.005)  
                                                 Youth bulge/adult pop.     1.017   
                                                                           (0.016)  
                                                 Muslim majority            1.172   
                                                                           (0.141)  
                 /                               ln_p                       0.931   
                                                                          (0.029)*  
                 N                                                          1,657   
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog
. 
. *Model 2* exponential instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       20.31
Log pseudolikelihood =    -536.8951             Prob > chi2      =      0.0024

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .6263861   .0903368    -3.24   0.001      .472153     .831001
    territory |   .8307614   .1166222    -1.32   0.187     .6309352    1.093876
  strongstart |   1.209341   .2952735     0.78   0.436     .7494087    1.951545
     oilstart |   1.002249   .0058668     0.38   0.701     .9908162    1.013814
 youthstartap |   1.016069   .0167029     0.97   0.332     .9838538    1.049339
muslimajstart |   1.195114   .1556188     1.37   0.171     .9259175    1.542576
        _cons |   .1334224    .077639    -3.46   0.001     .0426493    .4173939
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A3b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.626              
                                                          (0.090)**            
                       Territory                            0.831              
                                                           (0.117)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.209              
                                                           (0.295)             
                       Oil                                  1.002              
                                                           (0.006)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.016              
                                                           (0.017)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.195              
                                                           (0.156)             
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =           .
Log pseudolikelihood =   -525.66031             Prob > chi2      =           .

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.4446134   .1596249    -2.79   0.005    -.7574724   -.1317544
    territory |  -.0932853   .1543337    -0.60   0.546    -.3957738    .2092032
  strongstart |   .2466841    .213776     1.15   0.249    -.1723091    .6656773
     oilstart |   .0036829    .006127     0.60   0.548    -.0083258    .0156917
 youthstartap |   .0184494   .0175039     1.05   0.292    -.0158576    .0527564
muslimajstart |   .1582242   .1357486     1.17   0.244    -.1078381    .4242865
              |
        order |
           2  |  -.5259464   .1317063    -3.99   0.000    -.7840859   -.2678068
           3  |   -.455844   .1880615    -2.42   0.015    -.8244378   -.0872501
           4  |  -.1218642   .1768014    -0.69   0.491    -.4683886    .2246602
           5  |  -.2876308   .3624866    -0.79   0.427    -.9980915    .4228299
           6  |   .3091867   .2675659     1.16   0.248    -.2152329    .8336062
           7  |  -.8424303   .1792248    -4.70   0.000    -1.193704   -.4911562
              |
        _cons |  -1.994597   .6198471    -3.22   0.001    -3.209475   -.7797186
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A4 & A5
. ************************************************
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A6
. ************************************************
. 
. //See separate dataset and do-file, two-year-gap//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7a - Foreign fighters
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. gen islamistff=islamist*foreignfighter

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.9125             Prob > chi2      =      0.0070

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .8309015   .1283965    -1.20   0.231     .6137849     1.12482
     territory |   .8502287   .0980253    -1.41   0.159     .6782633    1.065794
   strongstart |   1.181792   .1688215     1.17   0.242     .8931926    1.563641
      oilstart |   1.000333   .0043625     0.08   0.939     .9918189     1.00892
  youthstartap |    1.01478   .0122015     1.22   0.222     .9911453    1.038978
 muslimajstart |   1.133359   .1180083     1.20   0.229     .9241406    1.389942
    islamistff |   1.012343    .241988     0.05   0.959     .6336636    1.617324
foreignfighter |   .7442709   .0917036    -2.40   0.017     .5845912    .9475667
 govmilsupport |    .661543   .1001736    -2.73   0.006     .4916609    .8901241
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7a-term.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust sta
> ndard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.831              
                                                           (0.128)             
                       Territory                            0.850              
                                                           (0.098)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.182              
                                                           (0.169)             
                       Oil                                  1.000              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.015              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.133              
                                                           (0.118)             
                       islamistff                           1.012              
                                                           (0.242)             
                       Foreign fighters                     0.744              
                                                           (0.092)*            
                       Government support                   0.662              
                                                          (0.100)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(
> sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9692
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9125
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9125
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.9125

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.9125             Prob > chi2      =      0.0070

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   -.185244   .1545267    -1.20   0.231    -.4881108    .1176227
     territory |  -.1622499   .1152929    -1.41   0.159    -.3882197      .06372
   strongstart |   .1670319   .1428521     1.17   0.242    -.1129531     .447017
      oilstart |   .0003327    .004361     0.08   0.939    -.0082148    .0088802
  youthstartap |   .0146719   .0120237     1.22   0.222    -.0088942     .038238
 muslimajstart |   .1251857   .1041227     1.20   0.229     -.078891    .3292623
    islamistff |   .0122678   .2390375     0.05   0.959    -.4562371    .4807727
foreignfighter |  -.2953502   .1232126    -2.40   0.017    -.5368425   -.0538579
 govmilsupport |  -.4131802   .1514241    -2.73   0.006    -.7099661   -.1163944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.03941         0.52        1         0.4723
      territory   |     -0.01262         0.06        1         0.8084
      strongstart |     -0.04269         0.58        1         0.4475
      oilstart    |     -0.04866         0.69        1         0.4045
      youthstartap|      0.02598         0.23        1         0.6346
      muslimajst~t|      0.02191         0.19        1         0.6630
      islamistff  |      0.00092         0.00        1         0.9869
      foreignfig~r|      0.01639         0.07        1         0.7914
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.00887         0.03        1         0.8678
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.43        9         0.8808
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(8)       =       18.12
Log likelihood  =   -1809.9134                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0203

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      1.islamist |    .834758   .1259321    -1.20   0.231     .6210804     1.12195
1.foreignfighter |    .746836   .1044436    -2.09   0.037     .5677881    .9823452
       territory |   .8504494   .1108434    -1.24   0.214     .6587293    1.097969
     strongstart |   1.182317    .206672     0.96   0.338      .839347    1.665429
        oilstart |    1.00035   .0055595     0.06   0.950     .9895131    1.011307
    youthstartap |   1.014797   .0152699     0.98   0.329     .9853053    1.045171
   muslimajstart |   1.133752   .1262408     1.13   0.260     .9114625    1.410255
   govmilsupport |   .6616679    .115506    -2.37   0.018     .4699456    .9316065
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       18.12
Log likelihood  =   -1809.9125                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0338

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   .8309015   .1555637    -0.99   0.322     .5756854    1.199262
       1.foreignfighter |   .7442709   .1207938    -1.82   0.069     .5414803    1.023009
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |   1.012343   .2965104     0.04   0.967     .5701841    1.797383
                        |
              territory |   .8502287   .1109316    -1.24   0.214      .658381     1.09798
            strongstart |   1.181792   .2069649     0.95   0.340     .8384397    1.665752
               oilstart |   1.000333   .0055749     0.06   0.952     .9894657    1.011319
           youthstartap |    1.01478   .0152768     0.97   0.330     .9852756    1.045168
          muslimajstart |   1.133359   .1265656     1.12   0.262     .9105655    1.410664
          govmilsupport |    .661543   .1155129    -2.37   0.018      .469817    .9315099
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      0.00
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.9666

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       18.12
Log likelihood  =   -1809.9125                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0338

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   .8309015   .1555637    -0.99   0.322     .5756854    1.199262
       1.foreignfighter |   .7442709   .1207938    -1.82   0.069     .5414803    1.023009
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |   1.012343   .2965104     0.04   0.967     .5701841    1.797383
                        |
              territory |   .8502287   .1109316    -1.24   0.214      .658381     1.09798
            strongstart |   1.181792   .2069649     0.95   0.340     .8384397    1.665752
               oilstart |   1.000333   .0055749     0.06   0.952     .9894657    1.011319
           youthstartap |    1.01478   .0152768     0.97   0.330     .9852756    1.045168
          muslimajstart |   1.133359   .1265656     1.12   0.262     .9105655    1.410664
          govmilsupport |    .661543   .1155129    -2.37   0.018      .469817    .9315099
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.foreignfighter=1.islamist#1.foreignfighter

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.foreignfighter - 1.islamist#1.foreignfighter = 0

           chi2(  1) =    0.00
         Prob > chi2 =    0.9666

. 
. *Model 2 and 3*
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7b - Foreign fighters is absent
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1, when Foreign Fighter is 0*
. gen foreignfighter0=.
(1,923 missing values generated)

. recode foreignfighter0 .=1 if foreignfighter==0
(foreignfighter0: 1403 changes made)

. recode foreignfighter0 .=0 if foreignfighter==1
(foreignfighter0: 520 changes made)

. tab foreignfighter0 foreignfighter

foreignfig |   Foreign fighters
     hter0 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |         0        520 |       520 
         1 |     1,403          0 |     1,403 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     1,403        520 |     1,923 

. 
. gen islamistff0=islamist*foreignfighter0

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff0 foreignfighter0 govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.9125             Prob > chi2      =      0.0070

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   .8411576   .1752763    -0.83   0.406      .559124    1.265455
      territory |   .8502287   .0980253    -1.41   0.159     .6782633    1.065794
    strongstart |   1.181792   .1688215     1.17   0.242     .8931926    1.563641
       oilstart |   1.000333   .0043625     0.08   0.939     .9918189     1.00892
   youthstartap |    1.01478   .0122015     1.22   0.222     .9911453    1.038978
  muslimajstart |   1.133359   .1180083     1.20   0.229     .9241406    1.389942
    islamistff0 |   .9878071   .2361229    -0.05   0.959     .6183055    1.578124
foreignfighter0 |   1.343597   .1655481     2.40   0.017     1.055335    1.710597
  govmilsupport |    .661543   .1001736    -2.73   0.006     .4916609    .8901241
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7b-term.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust sta
> ndard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.841              
                                                           (0.175)             
                       Territory                            0.850              
                                                           (0.098)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.182              
                                                           (0.169)             
                       Oil                                  1.000              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.015              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.133              
                                                           (0.118)             
                       islamistff0                          0.988              
                                                           (0.236)             
                       foreignfighter0                      1.344              
                                                           (0.166)*            
                       Government support                   0.662              
                                                          (0.100)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *Model 2 and 3*
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7c - Govmilsupport
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. gen islamistgovmil=islamist*govmilsupport

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.2397             Prob > chi2      =      0.0073

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .9014908   .1323116    -0.71   0.480     .6761306    1.201965
     territory |   .8449781   .0980447    -1.45   0.147     .6730986    1.060748
   strongstart |   1.171673   .1658134     1.12   0.263     .8878622    1.546205
      oilstart |   1.000198   .0043798     0.05   0.964     .9916504    1.008819
  youthstartap |    1.01356   .0122492     1.11   0.265     .9898339    1.037854
 muslimajstart |   1.150791   .1186277     1.36   0.173     .9402672    1.408449
islamistgovmil |   .6669229   .2138992    -1.26   0.207     .3556916    1.250483
 govmilsupport |   .7567648   .1277537    -1.65   0.099     .5435817    1.053554
foreignfighter |   .7458624      .0849    -2.58   0.010     .5967166    .9322862
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7c-term.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust sta
> ndard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.901              
                                                           (0.132)             
                       Territory                            0.845              
                                                           (0.098)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.172              
                                                           (0.166)             
                       Oil                                  1.000              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.014              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.151              
                                                           (0.119)             
                       islamistgovmil                       0.667              
                                                           (0.214)             
                       Government support                   0.757              
                                                           (0.128)+            
                       Foreign fighters                     0.746              
                                                          (0.085)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaled
> sch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.4169
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2402
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2397
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2397

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.2397             Prob > chi2      =      0.0073

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |  -.1037055   .1467698    -0.71   0.480     -.391369    .1839581
     territory |  -.1684446   .1160322    -1.45   0.147    -.3958635    .0589743
   strongstart |   .1584324   .1415185     1.12   0.263    -.1189388    .4358036
      oilstart |   .0001979   .0043789     0.05   0.964    -.0083846    .0087803
  youthstartap |   .0134686   .0120853     1.11   0.265    -.0102182    .0371553
 muslimajstart |   .1404491   .1030837     1.36   0.173    -.0615912    .3424894
islamistgovmil |  -.4050808   .3207254    -1.26   0.207    -1.033691    .2235296
 govmilsupport |  -.2787028   .1688156    -1.65   0.099    -.6095753    .0521696
foreignfighter |  -.2932142    .113828    -2.58   0.010    -.5163129   -.0701155
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.02123         0.18        1         0.6756
      territory   |     -0.01298         0.06        1         0.8047
      strongstart |     -0.03843         0.45        1         0.5026
      oilstart    |     -0.03690         0.42        1         0.5153
      youthstartap|      0.02997         0.30        1         0.5828
      muslimajst~t|      0.02404         0.22        1         0.6370
      islamistgo~l|      0.02820         0.29        1         0.5904
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.00703         0.02        1         0.9025
      foreignfig~r|      0.02029         0.13        1         0.7194
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.75        9         0.8551
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(8)       =       18.12
Log likelihood  =   -1809.9134                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0203

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     1.islamist |    .834758   .1259321    -1.20   0.231     .6210804     1.12195
1.govmilsupport |   .6616679    .115506    -2.37   0.018     .4699456    .9316065
      territory |   .8504494   .1108434    -1.24   0.214     .6587293    1.097969
    strongstart |   1.182317    .206672     0.96   0.338      .839347    1.665429
       oilstart |    1.00035   .0055595     0.06   0.950     .9895131    1.011307
   youthstartap |   1.014797   .0152699     0.98   0.329     .9853053    1.045171
  muslimajstart |   1.133752   .1262408     1.13   0.260     .9114625    1.410255
 foreignfighter |    .746836   .1044436    -2.09   0.037     .5677881    .9823452
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       19.47
Log likelihood  =   -1809.2397                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0215

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   .9014908   .1458478    -0.64   0.522     .6565223    1.237864
       1.govmilsupport |   .7567648   .1534955    -1.37   0.169     .5085231    1.126189
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   .6669229   .2347869    -1.15   0.250     .3345141    1.329649
                       |
             territory |   .8449781   .1104524    -1.29   0.198     .6540026     1.09172
           strongstart |   1.171673   .2048936     0.91   0.365     .8316764    1.650662
              oilstart |   1.000198   .0055735     0.04   0.972     .9893334    1.011182
          youthstartap |    1.01356   .0153473     0.89   0.374     .9839216    1.044091
         muslimajstart |   1.150791   .1284588     1.26   0.208     .9246547    1.432231
        foreignfighter |   .7458624   .1044353    -2.09   0.036     .5668574    .9813944
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      1.35
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.2457

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          309                  Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures =          433
Time at risk    =  2060.906982
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       19.47
Log likelihood  =   -1809.2397                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0215

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   .9014908   .1458478    -0.64   0.522     .6565223    1.237864
       1.govmilsupport |   .7567648   .1534955    -1.37   0.169     .5085231    1.126189
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   .6669229   .2347869    -1.15   0.250     .3345141    1.329649
                       |
             territory |   .8449781   .1104524    -1.29   0.198     .6540026     1.09172
           strongstart |   1.171673   .2048936     0.91   0.365     .8316764    1.650662
              oilstart |   1.000198   .0055735     0.04   0.972     .9893334    1.011182
          youthstartap |    1.01356   .0153473     0.89   0.374     .9839216    1.044091
         muslimajstart |   1.150791   .1284588     1.26   0.208     .9246547    1.432231
        foreignfighter |   .7458624   .1044353    -2.09   0.036     .5668574    .9813944
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.govmilsupport=1.islamist#1.govmilsupport

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.govmilsupport - 1.islamist#1.govmilsupport = 0

           chi2(  1) =    1.32
         Prob > chi2 =    0.2499

. 
. *Model 2 and 3*
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7d - Govmilsupport is absent
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1, when Govmil support is 1*
. gen govmilsupport0=.
(1,923 missing values generated)

. recode govmilsupport0 .=1 if govmilsupport==0
(govmilsupport0: 1629 changes made)

. recode govmilsupport0 .=0 if govmilsupport==1
(govmilsupport0: 294 changes made)

. tab govmilsupport0 govmilsupport

govmilsupp |  Government support
      ort0 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |         0        294 |       294 
         1 |     1,629          0 |     1,629 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     1,629        294 |     1,923 

. 
. gen islamistgovmil0=islamist*govmilsupport0

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil0 govmilsupport0 foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolo
> g

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.2397             Prob > chi2      =      0.0073

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   .6012249   .1719002    -1.78   0.075     .3432924    1.052955
      territory |   .8449781   .0980447    -1.45   0.147     .6730986    1.060748
    strongstart |   1.171673   .1658134     1.12   0.263     .8878622    1.546205
       oilstart |   1.000198   .0043798     0.05   0.964     .9916504    1.008819
   youthstartap |    1.01356   .0122492     1.11   0.265     .9898339    1.037854
  muslimajstart |   1.150791   .1186277     1.36   0.173     .9402672    1.408449
islamistgovmil0 |   1.499424   .4809033     1.26   0.207     .7996913    2.811424
 govmilsupport0 |   1.321415   .2230754     1.65   0.099     .9491678     1.83965
 foreignfighter |   .7458624      .0849    -2.58   0.010     .5967166    .9322862
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7d-term.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust sta
> ndard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.601              
                                                           (0.172)+            
                       Territory                            0.845              
                                                           (0.098)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.172              
                                                           (0.166)             
                       Oil                                  1.000              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.014              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.151              
                                                           (0.119)             
                       islamistgovmil0                      1.499              
                                                           (0.481)             
                       govmilsupport0                       1.321              
                                                           (0.223)+            
                       Foreign fighters                     0.746              
                                                          (0.085)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil0 govmilsupport0 foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scal
> edsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.4169
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2402
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2397
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1809.2397

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       22.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1809.2397             Prob > chi2      =      0.0073

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |  -.5087862   .2859167    -1.78   0.075    -1.069173    .0516002
      territory |  -.1684446   .1160322    -1.45   0.147    -.3958635    .0589743
    strongstart |   .1584324   .1415185     1.12   0.263    -.1189388    .4358036
       oilstart |   .0001979   .0043789     0.05   0.964    -.0083846    .0087803
   youthstartap |   .0134686   .0120853     1.11   0.265    -.0102182    .0371553
  muslimajstart |   .1404491   .1030837     1.36   0.173    -.0615912    .3424894
islamistgovmil0 |   .4050808   .3207254     1.26   0.207    -.2235296    1.033691
 govmilsupport0 |   .2787028   .1688156     1.65   0.099    -.0521696    .6095753
 foreignfighter |  -.2932142    .113828    -2.58   0.010    -.5163129   -.0701155
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.04468         0.67        1         0.4130
      territory   |     -0.01298         0.06        1         0.8047
      strongstart |     -0.03843         0.45        1         0.5026
      oilstart    |     -0.03690         0.42        1         0.5153
      youthstartap|      0.02997         0.30        1         0.5828
      muslimajst~t|      0.02404         0.22        1         0.6370
      islamistgo~0|     -0.02820         0.29        1         0.5904
      govmilsupp~0|      0.00703         0.02        1         0.9025
      foreignfig~r|      0.02029         0.13        1         0.7194
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.75        9         0.8551
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Model 2 and 3*
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A8
. ************************************************
. 
. *alternative measures of secondary support*
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebextpartdummy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          278             Number of obs    =       1,479
No. of failures      =          364
Time at risk         =  1771.287354
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       29.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1490.4728             Prob > chi2      =      0.0003

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 278 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   .8541927   .1343814    -1.00   0.316     .6275453    1.162697
      territory |    .931566   .1285925    -0.51   0.608     .7107463    1.220992
    strongstart |   1.303065   .1705882     2.02   0.043     1.008167    1.684222
       oilstart |   1.000874   .0051605     0.17   0.865     .9908105    1.011039
   youthstartap |   1.013682   .0145942     0.94   0.345     .9854781    1.042694
  muslimajstart |   1.182528   .1266197     1.57   0.117      .958669    1.458661
  secsup_govgov |   .5787661   .1387593    -2.28   0.023     .3617657    .9259314
rebextpartdummy |   .6105244   .1083561    -2.78   0.005      .431153    .8645192
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A8a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   analysis time when record ends 
                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                    Islamist claim                             0.854              
                                                              (0.134)             
                    Territory                                  0.932              
                                                              (0.129)             
                    Strong rebels                              1.303              
                                                              (0.171)*            
                    Oil                                        1.001              
                                                              (0.005)             
                    Youth bulge/adult pop.                     1.014              
                                                              (0.015)             
                    Muslim majority                            1.183              
                                                              (0.127)             
                    Government secondary support               0.579              
                                                              (0.139)*            
                    Rebel support                              0.611              
                                                             (0.108)**            
                    N                                          1,479              
                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebextpartdummy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) scho
> enfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1501.2822
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1490.7187
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1490.4732
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1490.4728
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1490.4728

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          278             Number of obs    =       1,479
No. of failures      =          364
Time at risk         =  1771.287354
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       29.34
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1490.4728             Prob > chi2      =      0.0003

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 278 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |  -.1575984   .1573197    -1.00   0.316    -.4659394    .1507426
      territory |  -.0708882    .138039    -0.51   0.608    -.3414398    .1996633
    strongstart |   .2647189   .1309131     2.02   0.043      .008134    .5213038
       oilstart |   .0008735    .005156     0.17   0.865     -.009232     .010979
   youthstartap |   .0135896   .0143972     0.94   0.345    -.0146284    .0418076
  muslimajstart |   .1676546   .1070754     1.57   0.117    -.0422094    .3775186
  secsup_govgov |  -.5468568   .2397502    -2.28   0.023    -1.016759   -.0769551
rebextpartdummy |  -.4934369   .1774804    -2.78   0.005    -.8412922   -.1455817
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.03640         0.49        1         0.4827
      territory   |      0.01290         0.06        1         0.8027
      strongstart |     -0.02502         0.13        1         0.7210
      oilstart    |     -0.07318         1.76        1         0.1841
      youthstartap|      0.04399         0.65        1         0.4192
      muslimajst~t|      0.04768         0.69        1         0.4078
      secsup_gov~v|     -0.00627         0.01        1         0.9078
      rebextpart~y|      0.04496         0.61        1         0.4356
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.84        8         0.6653
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 2 and 3*
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A9
. ************************************************
. 
. *gdp, population and anocracy*
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          291             Number of obs    =       1,403
No. of failures      =          400
Time at risk         =  1749.087158
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1656.6848             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 291 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7043364   .0990732    -2.49   0.013     .5346242    .9279224
    territory |   .9693489   .1147774    -0.26   0.793     .7685854    1.222554
  strongstart |   1.013958   .1422254     0.10   0.921     .7702365      1.3348
     oilstart |   1.018142   .0055702     3.29   0.001     1.007283    1.029118
 youthstartap |   1.004104   .0126456     0.33   0.745     .9796229    1.029198
muslimajstart |   .9240272   .1021228    -0.71   0.475     .7440646    1.147516
 lngdppcstart |   .9219212   .0406809    -1.84   0.065     .8455387    1.005204
   lnpopstart |    .847676   .0316167    -4.43   0.000     .7879193    .9119648
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A9.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard 
> errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.704              
                                                           (0.099)*            
                       Territory                            0.969              
                                                           (0.115)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.014              
                                                           (0.142)             
                       Oil                                  1.018              
                                                          (0.006)**            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.004              
                                                           (0.013)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.924              
                                                           (0.102)             
                       GDP per capita                       0.922              
                                                           (0.041)+            
                       Population                           0.848              
                                                          (0.032)**            
                       N                                    1,403              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1667.7502
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1656.7414
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1656.6848
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1656.6848
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1656.6848

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          291             Number of obs    =       1,403
No. of failures      =          400
Time at risk         =  1749.087158
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1656.6848             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 291 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.3504992   .1406618    -2.49   0.013    -.6261913   -.0748072
    territory |  -.0311307   .1184067    -0.26   0.793    -.2632036    .2009423
  strongstart |   .0138618   .1402676     0.10   0.921    -.2610576    .2887811
     oilstart |   .0179797   .0054709     3.29   0.001     .0072568    .0287025
 youthstartap |   .0040961   .0125939     0.33   0.745    -.0205875    .0287797
muslimajstart |  -.0790137   .1105192    -0.71   0.475    -.2956275       .1376
 lngdppcstart |  -.0812955   .0441263    -1.84   0.065    -.1677814    .0051904
   lnpopstart |  -.1652568   .0372981    -4.43   0.000    -.2383596   -.0921539
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.04561         0.85        1         0.3578
      territory   |     -0.06842         1.54        1         0.2145
      strongstart |     -0.03602         0.36        1         0.5497
      oilstart    |      0.00177         0.00        1         0.9781
      youthstartap|     -0.01175         0.03        1         0.8520
      muslimajst~t|     -0.01183         0.05        1         0.8177
      lngdppcstart|     -0.04917         0.67        1         0.4142
      lnpopstart  |     -0.02868         0.21        1         0.6478
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.67        8         0.7918
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,543
No. of failures      =          411
Time at risk         =  1926.057129
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       11.06
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1711.7282             Prob > chi2      =      0.1360

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7193474   .1105378    -2.14   0.032     .5322794    .9721598
    territory |   .9671156   .1095123    -0.30   0.768     .7746253    1.207439
  strongstart |   1.095657   .1463301     0.68   0.494     .8433203    1.423497
     oilstart |    1.00432   .0042903     1.01   0.313     .9959459    1.012764
 youthstartap |    1.01343   .0116451     1.16   0.246     .9908615    1.036513
muslimajstart |   1.078984   .1080494     0.76   0.448     .8866982    1.312969
     anostart |   1.144927    .095253     1.63   0.104     .9726607    1.347702
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A9.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard 
> errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       0.704                           0.719              
                                           (0.099)*                        (0.111)*            
       Territory                            0.969                           0.967              
                                           (0.115)                         (0.110)             
       Strong rebels                        1.014                           1.096              
                                           (0.142)                         (0.146)             
       Oil                                  1.018                           1.004              
                                          (0.006)**                        (0.004)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.004                           1.013              
                                           (0.013)                         (0.012)             
       Muslim majority                      0.924                           1.079              
                                           (0.102)                         (0.108)             
       GDP per capita                       0.922                                              
                                           (0.041)+                                            
       Population                           0.848                                              
                                          (0.032)**                                            
       Anocracy                                                             1.145              
                                                                           (0.095)             
       N                                    1,403                           1,543              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1715.8855
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1711.7518
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1711.7282
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1711.7282
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1711.7282

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          294             Number of obs    =       1,543
No. of failures      =          411
Time at risk         =  1926.057129
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       11.06
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1711.7282             Prob > chi2      =      0.1360

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 294 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.3294109    .153664    -2.14   0.032    -.6305868   -.0282351
    territory |  -.0334373    .113236    -0.30   0.768    -.2553758    .1885013
  strongstart |    .091354   .1335547     0.68   0.494    -.1704084    .3531165
     oilstart |   .0043102   .0042718     1.01   0.313    -.0040624    .0126829
 youthstartap |    .013341   .0114908     1.16   0.246    -.0091805    .0358626
muslimajstart |   .0760201   .1001399     0.76   0.448    -.1202506    .2722908
     anostart |   .1353407   .0831957     1.63   0.104    -.0277199    .2984013
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.02263         0.21        1         0.6448
      territory   |      0.00224         0.00        1         0.9673
      strongstart |     -0.04340         0.46        1         0.4965
      oilstart    |     -0.01874         0.08        1         0.7707
      youthstartap|      0.03618         0.38        1         0.5368
      muslimajst~t|      0.01661         0.09        1         0.7580
      anostart    |      0.08800         2.00        1         0.1578
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.50        7         0.8356
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.07
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1808.1074             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7460883    .097917    -2.23   0.026     .5768703    .9649445
    territory |   1.044764   .1167008     0.39   0.695     .8393407    1.300462
  strongstart |   1.053433   .1391258     0.39   0.693     .8131857     1.36466
     oilstart |   1.017042    .005358     3.21   0.001     1.006595    1.027598
 youthstartap |   1.017599   .0130252     1.36   0.173      .992388    1.043451
muslimajstart |   1.012305   .1005842     0.12   0.902      .833172    1.229952
      lngdppc |   .9278575   .0389428    -1.78   0.074      .854586    1.007411
        lnpop |   .8497366   .0326201    -4.24   0.000     .7881484    .9161375
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A9.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard 
> errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Islamist claim                         0.704                           0.719              
                                            (0.099)*                        (0.111)*            
      Territory                              0.969                           0.967              
                                            (0.115)                         (0.110)             
      Strong rebels                          1.014                           1.096              
                                            (0.142)                         (0.146)             
      Oil                                    1.018                           1.004              
                                           (0.006)**                        (0.004)             
      Youth bulge/adult pop.                 1.004                           1.013              
                                            (0.013)                         (0.012)             
      Muslim majority                        0.924                           1.079              
                                            (0.102)                         (0.108)             
      GDP per capita                         0.922                                              
                                            (0.041)+                                            
      Population                             0.848                                              
                                           (0.032)**                                            
      Anocracy                                                               1.145              
                                                                            (0.095)             
      GDP per capita over time                                                                  
                                                                                                
      Population over time                                                                      
                                                                                                
      N                                      1,403                           1,543              
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                     ------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 analysis time when record ends 
                     ------------------------------------------------------------
                      Islamist claim                         0.746              
                                                            (0.098)*            
                      Territory                              1.045              
                                                            (0.117)             
                      Strong rebels                          1.053              
                                                            (0.139)             
                      Oil                                    1.017              
                                                           (0.005)**            
                      Youth bulge/adult pop.                 1.018              
                                                            (0.013)             
                      Muslim majority                        1.012              
                                                            (0.101)             
                      GDP per capita                                            
                                                                                
                      Population                                                
                                                                                
                      Anocracy                                                  
                                                                                
                      GDP per capita over time               0.928              
                                                            (0.039)+            
                      Population over time                   0.850              
                                                           (0.033)**            
                      N                                      1,657              
                     ------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) noh
> r

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1808.1629
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1808.1074
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1808.1074
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1808.1074

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.07
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1808.1074             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.2929113   .1312405    -2.23   0.026    -.5501379   -.0356847
    territory |   .0437907   .1117007     0.39   0.695    -.1751386      .26272
  strongstart |   .0520546    .132069     0.39   0.693    -.2067958     .310905
     oilstart |   .0168986   .0052682     3.21   0.001     .0065731     .027224
 youthstartap |   .0174463      .0128     1.36   0.173    -.0076411    .0425338
muslimajstart |   .0122298   .0993615     0.12   0.902    -.1825152    .2069748
      lngdppc |  -.0748771   .0419706    -1.78   0.074    -.1571381    .0073838
        lnpop |  -.1628288   .0383885    -4.24   0.000    -.2380689   -.0875888
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.04774         0.92        1         0.3369
      territory   |     -0.01117         0.04        1         0.8374
      strongstart |     -0.03494         0.32        1         0.5731
      oilstart    |     -0.03916         0.41        1         0.5226
      youthstartap|      0.04637         0.70        1         0.4018
      muslimajst~t|      0.01536         0.09        1         0.7699
      lngdppc     |     -0.00639         0.01        1         0.9039
      lnpop       |     -0.00691         0.02        1         0.9011
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.64        8         0.7957
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 4*
. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       1,573
No. of failures      =          423
Time at risk         =  1975.057129
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       12.10
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1750.6898             Prob > chi2      =      0.0973

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7340062   .1054675    -2.15   0.031     .5538508    .9727622
    territory |   .9592383   .1106926    -0.36   0.718     .7650696    1.202686
  strongstart |   1.048859   .1435705     0.35   0.727     .8020515    1.371613
     oilstart |   1.003388   .0043046     0.79   0.430     .9949866    1.011861
 youthstartap |   1.012638   .0117083     1.09   0.277     .9899485    1.035848
muslimajstart |   1.094233   .1104295     0.89   0.372     .8978568    1.333561
     anocracy |   1.170372   .1072381     1.72   0.086     .9779812     1.40061
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A9.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard 
> errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Islamist claim                         0.704                           0.719              
                                            (0.099)*                        (0.111)*            
      Territory                              0.969                           0.967              
                                            (0.115)                         (0.110)             
      Strong rebels                          1.014                           1.096              
                                            (0.142)                         (0.146)             
      Oil                                    1.018                           1.004              
                                           (0.006)**                        (0.004)             
      Youth bulge/adult pop.                 1.004                           1.013              
                                            (0.013)                         (0.012)             
      Muslim majority                        0.924                           1.079              
                                            (0.102)                         (0.108)             
      GDP per capita                         0.922                                              
                                            (0.041)+                                            
      Population                             0.848                                              
                                           (0.032)**                                            
      Anocracy                                                               1.145              
                                                                            (0.095)             
      GDP per capita over time                                                                  
                                                                                                
      Population over time                                                                      
                                                                                                
      Anocracy over time                                                                        
                                                                                                
      N                                      1,403                           1,543              
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Islamist claim                         0.746                           0.734              
                                            (0.098)*                        (0.105)*            
      Territory                              1.045                           0.959              
                                            (0.117)                         (0.111)             
      Strong rebels                          1.053                           1.049              
                                            (0.139)                         (0.144)             
      Oil                                    1.017                           1.003              
                                           (0.005)**                        (0.004)             
      Youth bulge/adult pop.                 1.018                           1.013              
                                            (0.013)                         (0.012)             
      Muslim majority                        1.012                           1.094              
                                            (0.101)                         (0.110)             
      GDP per capita                                                                            
                                                                                                
      Population                                                                                
                                                                                                
      Anocracy                                                                                  
                                                                                                
      GDP per capita over time               0.928                                              
                                            (0.039)+                                            
      Population over time                   0.850                                              
                                           (0.033)**                                            
      Anocracy over time                                                     1.170              
                                                                            (0.107)+            
      N                                      1,657                           1,573              
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -1755.071
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1750.7086
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1750.6898
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1750.6898
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1750.6898

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       1,573
No. of failures      =          423
Time at risk         =  1975.057129
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       12.10
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1750.6898             Prob > chi2      =      0.0973

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.3092378   .1436874    -2.15   0.031      -.59086   -.0276156
    territory |  -.0416157   .1153964    -0.36   0.718    -.2677885     .184557
  strongstart |   .0477025   .1368826     0.35   0.727    -.2205825    .3159874
     oilstart |   .0033824   .0042901     0.79   0.430     -.005026    .0117907
 youthstartap |   .0125591   .0115622     1.09   0.277    -.0101024    .0352206
muslimajstart |   .0900539   .1009195     0.89   0.372    -.1077447    .2878524
     anocracy |   .1573216   .0916274     1.72   0.086    -.0222648    .3369079
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.03148         0.41        1         0.5235
      territory   |     -0.00359         0.00        1         0.9449
      strongstart |     -0.04479         0.55        1         0.4600
      oilstart    |     -0.03499         0.32        1         0.5718
      youthstartap|      0.02890         0.25        1         0.6158
      muslimajst~t|      0.01928         0.14        1         0.7132
      anocracy    |      0.01989         0.13        1         0.7191
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      2.58        7         0.9211
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A10 and A11
. ************************************************
. 
. *gdp, population and anocracy*
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A12
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox leftist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       19.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1812.5696             Prob > chi2      =      0.0041

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   .6486983   .0726132    -3.87   0.000     .5209092    .8078365
    territory |   .9032153    .102546    -0.90   0.370     .7230205    1.128319
  strongstart |   1.038218    .155681     0.25   0.802     .7738392    1.392921
     oilstart |    1.00399   .0040842     0.98   0.328     .9960171    1.012027
 youthstartap |   1.017102   .0134819     1.28   0.201     .9910179    1.043872
muslimajstart |   .9141119   .0880932    -0.93   0.351     .7567786    1.104155
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Leftist                              0.649              
                                                          (0.073)**            
                       Territory                            0.903              
                                                           (0.103)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.038              
                                                           (0.156)             
                       Oil                                  1.004              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.017              
                                                           (0.013)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.914              
                                                           (0.088)             
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1812.6096
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1812.5696
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1812.5696
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1812.5696

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       19.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1812.5696             Prob > chi2      =      0.0041

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |  -.4327875   .1119367    -3.87   0.000    -.6521795   -.2133956
    territory |  -.1017943   .1135344    -0.90   0.370    -.3243177    .1207291
  strongstart |   .0375058   .1499502     0.25   0.802    -.2563912    .3314028
     oilstart |   .0039822   .0040679     0.98   0.328    -.0039908    .0119552
 youthstartap |   .0169571   .0132552     1.28   0.201    -.0090227    .0429369
muslimajstart |  -.0898022   .0963703    -0.93   0.351    -.2786846    .0990801
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.03791         0.42        1         0.5164
      territory   |     -0.01613         0.09        1         0.7585
      strongstart |     -0.04839         0.79        1         0.3736
      oilstart    |     -0.03751         0.35        1         0.5529
      youthstartap|      0.03771         0.57        1         0.4511
      muslimajst~t|      0.05196         0.93        1         0.3357
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.11        6         0.6619
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        3.23
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1817.7108             Prob > chi2      =      0.7788

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     muslimid |   1.055834   .1463085     0.39   0.695     .8047178    1.385313
    territory |   .9824762   .1138337    -0.15   0.879     .7828857    1.232951
  strongstart |    1.13821   .1634452     0.90   0.367     .8589959    1.508181
     oilstart |   1.002376   .0042268     0.56   0.574     .9941253    1.010694
 youthstartap |    1.01729   .0130359     1.34   0.181      .992058    1.043163
muslimajstart |   .9485392   .1429473    -0.35   0.726     .7059551    1.274482
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Leftist                              0.649                                              
                                          (0.073)**                                            
       Territory                            0.903                           0.982              
                                           (0.103)                         (0.114)             
       Strong rebels                        1.038                           1.138              
                                           (0.156)                         (0.163)             
       Oil                                  1.004                           1.002              
                                           (0.004)                         (0.004)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.017                           1.017              
                                           (0.013)                         (0.013)             
       Muslim majority                      0.914                           0.949              
                                           (0.088)                         (0.143)             
       Muslim identity                                                      1.056              
                                                                           (0.146)             
       N                                    1,657                           1,657              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.7135
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.7108
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.7108
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.7108

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        3.23
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1817.7108             Prob > chi2      =      0.7788

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     muslimid |   .0543314   .1385714     0.39   0.695    -.2172636    .3259264
    territory |  -.0176792   .1158641    -0.15   0.879    -.2447685    .2094102
  strongstart |   .1294566   .1435985     0.90   0.367    -.1519912    .4109044
     oilstart |   .0023727   .0042168     0.56   0.574     -.005892    .0106375
 youthstartap |   .0171419   .0128143     1.34   0.181    -.0079737    .0422574
muslimajstart |  -.0528321   .1507026    -0.35   0.726    -.3482037    .2425394
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      muslimid    |     -0.03401         0.44        1         0.5069
      territory   |     -0.00643         0.02        1         0.9022
      strongstart |     -0.04331         0.59        1         0.4437
      oilstart    |     -0.04127         0.46        1         0.4975
      youthstartap|      0.02173         0.18        1         0.6725
      muslimajst~t|      0.05407         1.10        1         0.2932
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.28        6         0.7727
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox nonislamistrel $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        3.86
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1817.3431             Prob > chi2      =      0.6960

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |   .8291591   .1404258    -1.11   0.269     .5949481    1.155571
     territory |   1.000068    .114206     0.00   1.000     .7995102    1.250937
   strongstart |   1.124586   .1629486     0.81   0.418     .8465577    1.493925
      oilstart |   1.001984    .004251     0.47   0.640     .9936871    1.010351
  youthstartap |   1.017708   .0128238     1.39   0.164     .9928813    1.043155
 muslimajstart |   .9810711   .0914886    -0.20   0.838     .8171893    1.177818
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Leftist                                     0.649                                              
                                             (0.073)**                                            
   Territory                                   0.903                           0.982              
                                              (0.103)                         (0.114)             
   Strong rebels                               1.038                           1.138              
                                              (0.156)                         (0.163)             
   Oil                                         1.004                           1.002              
                                              (0.004)                         (0.004)             
   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      1.017                           1.017              
                                              (0.013)                         (0.013)             
   Muslim majority                             0.914                           0.949              
                                              (0.088)                         (0.143)             
   Muslim identity                                                             1.056              
                                                                              (0.146)             
   Non-Islamist religious claims                                                                  
                                                                                                  
   N                                           1,657                           1,657              
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   analysis time when record ends 
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                   Leftist                                                        
                                                                                  
                   Territory                                   1.000              
                                                              (0.114)             
                   Strong rebels                               1.125              
                                                              (0.163)             
                   Oil                                         1.002              
                                                              (0.004)             
                   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      1.018              
                                                              (0.013)             
                   Muslim majority                             0.981              
                                                              (0.091)             
                   Muslim identity                                                
                                                                                  
                   Non-Islamist religious claims               0.829              
                                                              (0.140)             
                   N                                           1,657              
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox nonislamistrel $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.3475
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.3431
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.3431
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1817.3431

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        3.86
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1817.3431             Prob > chi2      =      0.6960

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |  -.1873432   .1693592    -1.11   0.269    -.5192812    .1445948
     territory |   .0000684   .1141982     0.00   1.000     -.223756    .2238928
   strongstart |    .117415   .1448965     0.81   0.418    -.1665769    .4014069
      oilstart |   .0019824   .0042426     0.47   0.640    -.0063329    .0102977
  youthstartap |   .0175528   .0126007     1.39   0.164    -.0071442    .0422497
 muslimajstart |  -.0191104   .0932538    -0.20   0.838    -.2018845    .1636637
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      nonislamis~l|      0.03414         0.35        1         0.5564
      territory   |     -0.01461         0.08        1         0.7781
      strongstart |     -0.04391         0.61        1         0.4346
      oilstart    |     -0.03812         0.40        1         0.5284
      youthstartap|      0.01684         0.10        1         0.7493
      muslimajst~t|      0.04835         0.76        1         0.3848
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.12        6         0.7934
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Model 4-6*
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A13
. ************************************************
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A14
. ************************************************
. 
. *number_group*
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 number_group, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       13.47
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1814.2772             Prob > chi2      =      0.0614

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7242779   .1042512    -2.24   0.025     .5462418    .9603411
    territory |    .946668   .1095366    -0.47   0.636     .7545834    1.187649
  strongstart |    1.10048   .1511407     0.70   0.486     .8407704    1.440412
     oilstart |   1.002536   .0043751     0.58   0.562     .9939978    1.011148
 youthstartap |   1.015659   .0124867     1.26   0.206     .9914784     1.04043
muslimajstart |   1.083678   .1091533     0.80   0.425     .8895348    1.320192
 number_group |   .9658317   .0384619    -0.87   0.383     .8933145    1.044236
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A14a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.724              
                                                           (0.104)*            
                       Territory                            0.947              
                                                           (0.110)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.100              
                                                           (0.151)             
                       Oil                                  1.003              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.016              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.084              
                                                           (0.109)             
                       Number of groups                     0.966              
                                                           (0.038)             
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 number_group, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.3066
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.2772
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.2772
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1814.2772

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       13.47
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1814.2772             Prob > chi2      =      0.0614

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.3225802   .1439381    -2.24   0.025    -.6046936   -.0404668
    territory |  -.0548068   .1157076    -0.47   0.636    -.2815895    .1719758
  strongstart |   .0957462   .1373407     0.70   0.486    -.1734367    .3649291
     oilstart |   .0025331    .004364     0.58   0.562    -.0060202    .0110865
 youthstartap |   .0155381   .0122942     1.26   0.206    -.0085581    .0396343
muslimajstart |   .0803604   .1007248     0.80   0.425    -.1170567    .2777775
 number_group |  -.0347656   .0398226    -0.87   0.383    -.1128165    .0432852
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.03480         0.55        1         0.4591
      territory   |     -0.00913         0.03        1         0.8595
      strongstart |     -0.03974         0.44        1         0.5075
      oilstart    |     -0.03808         0.41        1         0.5200
      youthstartap|      0.03375         0.40        1         0.5265
      muslimajst~t|      0.01919         0.14        1         0.7089
      number_group|      0.01146         0.04        1         0.8411
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.83        7         0.7989
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A15
. ************************************************
. 
. *duration and intensity*
. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       29.00
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1807.4522             Prob > chi2      =      0.0003

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .7165088    .097708    -2.44   0.015     .5484613    .9360458
     territory |   .9880402   .1138969    -0.10   0.917     .7882281    1.238504
   strongstart |   1.146518   .1534927     1.02   0.307     .8819102    1.490519
      oilstart |   .9992838   .0042053    -0.17   0.865     .9910753     1.00756
  youthstartap |   1.015609   .0119132     1.32   0.187      .992526    1.039229
 muslimajstart |   1.067331   .1123765     0.62   0.536     .8683168    1.311958
      duration |   .9539003   .0176216    -2.55   0.011     .9199804    .9890708
intensitylevel |   .6105228   .0972284    -3.10   0.002     .4468321    .8341792
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A15a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.717              
                                                           (0.098)*            
                       Territory                            0.988              
                                                           (0.114)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.147              
                                                           (0.153)             
                       Oil                                  0.999              
                                                           (0.004)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.016              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.067              
                                                           (0.112)             
                       Duration                             0.954              
                                                           (0.018)*            
                       War                                  0.611              
                                                          (0.097)**            
                       N                                    1,657              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1818.9743
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1807.5964
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1807.4523
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1807.4522
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1807.4522

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,657
No. of failures      =          433
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       29.00
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1807.4522             Prob > chi2      =      0.0003

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |  -.3333647   .1363667    -2.44   0.015    -.6006386   -.0660909
     territory |  -.0120319   .1152756    -0.10   0.917    -.2379678    .2139041
   strongstart |   .1367295   .1338773     1.02   0.307    -.1256651    .3991242
      oilstart |  -.0007165   .0042084    -0.17   0.865    -.0089647    .0075317
  youthstartap |   .0154886   .0117301     1.32   0.187    -.0075021    .0384792
 muslimajstart |   .0651609   .1052874     0.62   0.536    -.1411987    .2715205
      duration |  -.0471962   .0184732    -2.55   0.011     -.083403   -.0109893
intensitylevel |  -.4934396   .1592543    -3.10   0.002    -.8055723    -.181307
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.05408         1.28        1         0.2584
      territory   |     -0.01123         0.05        1         0.8264
      strongstart |     -0.03803         0.40        1         0.5256
      oilstart    |     -0.06436         1.13        1         0.2876
      youthstartap|      0.03994         0.52        1         0.4712
      muslimajst~t|      0.00331         0.00        1         0.9454
      duration    |      0.11906         3.67        1         0.0555
      intensityl~l|     -0.03815         0.57        1         0.4519
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.54        8         0.4800
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A16
. ************************************************
. 
. //See do-file on recurrence//
. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
end of do-file

. do "/Users/desinils/Desirée's PCR team Dropbox/Desirée Nilsson/2012-2014/Forskningsprojekt/Jihadis
> t Peace/Negotiation and religion/Islamist Claims & Recurrence/Submission-ISQ/Resubmission-ISQ/Intrac
> tability_final_submitted/Replication files-Intractability-ISQ/Intractability-replication-zip-files/R
> ecurrence-analysis-ISQ.do"

. clear all 

. 
. /***************************************************************************************************
> *
>                 
> Replication file 2 out of 3 for:
> "The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies: Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War"
> Desirée Nilsson & Isak Svensson
> International Studies Quarterly
> Last updated: 20 April 2021
> Note that dyadep 18502 has been replaced with 28502 due to an error in original termination data
> ***************************************************************************************************/
. 
. 
. *To run the do-file you need to install the following:
. 
. *1. To generate summary statistics:
. //ssc install unique
. 
. *2. To generate graphs:
. //ssc install blindschemes, replace all
. 
. *3. To generate tables: 
. //ssc install outreg
. //ssc install outreg2
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
.  
. use "Recurrence-data-ISQ.dta"

. sort dyadid year

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS RECURRENCE as DV
. ************************************************
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS NEW-RECURRENCE as DV
. ************************************************
. 
. //stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) fai
> lure(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CREATE LABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. label variable firstrecur "Recurrence"

. label variable newrecur1 "Recurrence-new"

. label variable islamist "Islamist claim"

. label variable territory "Territory"

. label variable duration "Duration"

. label variable intensitylevel "War"

. label variable number_group "Number of groups"

. label variable transstart "Transnational constituency"

. label variable forinvstart "Foreign involvement"

. label variable strongstart "Strong rebels"

. label variable pa "Peace agreement"

. label variable ca "Ceasefire agreement"

. label variable lowcease "Low activity"

. 
. label variable govv "Government victory"

. label variable rebv "Rebel victory"

. label variable pko "Peacekeeping presence"

. label variable anostart "Anocracy"

. label variable lngdppcstart "GDP per capita"

. label variable lnpopstart "Population"

. label variable muslimajstart "Muslim majority"

. label variable oilstart "Oil"

. label variable youthstartap "Youth bulge/adult pop."

. label variable muslimid "Muslim identity"

. 
. label variable foreignfighter "Foreign fighters"

. label variable govmilsupport "Government support"

. label variable leftist "Leftist"

. label variable nonislamistrel "Non-Islamist religious claims"

. label variable muslimid "Muslim identity"

. 
. label variable anocracy "Anocracy over time"

. label variable lngdppc "GDP pc over time"

. label variable lnpop "Population over time"

. label variable secsup_govgov "Government secondary support"

. label variable rebext "Rebel support"

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CONTROL VARIABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. global X1 territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart

. global X2 _yrs _yrs_sq _yrs_cu

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
. ************************************************
. 
. *islamist conflicts*
. unique dyadid if islamist==1 | islamist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  367
Number of records is  6927

. *367
. 
. unique dyadid if islamist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  53
Number of records is  724

. *53*
. 
. unique dyadid if islamist==0 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  314
Number of records is  6203

. *314
. 
. unique dyadid if firstrecur==1 & islamist==1 
Number of unique values of dyadid is  20
Number of records is  35

. *20 out of 53
. 
. unique dyadid if firstrecur==1 & islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  78
Number of records is  137

. *78 out of 314
. 
. *number of recurrences-new and recurrences with Islamist actors*
. count if newrecur1==1 
  80

. *80
. count if newrecurislamist1==1
  23

. *23
. 
. count if firstrecur==1
  172

. *172
. count if firstrecur==1 & islamist==1
  35

. *35
. 
. *after 15 years of analysis time*
. unique dyadid if _t>15 & islamist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  25
Number of records is  206

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A2
. ************************************************
. 
. su firstrecur islamist newrecur1 territory strongstart anostart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart 
> lngdppcstart lnpopstart anostart foreignfighter duration intensitylevel leftist nonislamist pko ca g
> ovv rebv lowcease anocracy lngdppc lnpop govmilsupport number_group secsup_govgov rebext

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  firstrecur |      6,927    .0248304    .1556192          0          1
    islamist |      6,927    .1045186    .3059541          0          1
   newrecur1 |      6,927     .011549    .1068517          0          1
   territory |      6,927    .3334777    .4714896          0          1
 strongstart |      6,735     .138827    .3457916          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
    anostart |      6,396    .3636648    .4810914          0          1
    oilstart |      6,720     8.51009    9.839606          0   25.31365
youthstartap |      6,423    32.88206    4.095425   15.64565    39.4916
muslimajst~t |      6,927    .3649488    .4814505          0          1
lngdppcstart |      6,143    6.525022    1.286402   4.265055   10.38048
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
  lnpopstart |      6,619    16.39293    1.408266   12.81063   20.99929
    anostart |      6,396    .3636648    .4810914          0          1
foreignfig~r |      6,927    .1694817    .3752039          0          1
    duration |      6,927    2.786055    5.288458          0         40
intensityl~l |      6,927    1.120254    .3252819          1          2
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     leftist |      6,847    .1851906    .3884805          0          1
nonislamis~l |      6,927    .0531255    .2242998          0          1
         pko |      6,927     .255955    .4364281          0          1
          ca |      6,927    .1017757    .3023749          0          1
        govv |      6,927    .1947452     .396033          0          1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
        rebv |      6,927    .1049516    .3065132          0          1
    lowcease |      6,927     .459795    .4984169          0          1
    anocracy |      6,671    .3740069    .4839017          0          1
     lngdppc |      6,800    6.531416    1.320162   4.255866   10.38048
       lnpop |      6,800    16.48655    1.428173    12.8727   20.99929
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
govmilsupp~t |      6,927    .1209759    .3261228          0          1
number_group |      6,927    1.365671    .7038072          1          5
secsup_gov~v |      6,536    .0558446    .2296389          0          1
      rebext |      6,346    .0764261    .2656996          0          1

. //outreg2 using appendix-A2.doc, replace sum(log) keep (firstrecur newrecur1 islamist territory stro
> ngstart anostart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart lngdppcstart lnpopstart anostart foreignfighter
>  duration intensitylevel leftist nonislamist pko ca govv rebv lowcease anocracy lngdppc lnpop govmil
> support number_group secsup_govgov rebext)
. //reload data after this line
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * FIGURE 2
. ************************************************
. 
. *produce a plot with two survivor functions: with and without islamist, please note: without strata
. 
. set scheme plottig

. sts graph, legend (cols(1)) by(islamist) ci 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

. *minor adjustments made manually, e.g.  set background region to grayscale 15, set labels*
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 1
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1 see do-file on termination//
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       44.30
Log pseudolikelihood =   -640.54334             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.730462   .3505505     2.71   0.007     1.163399    2.573921
    territory |   2.288131   .5058548     3.74   0.000      1.48354    3.529089
  strongstart |   .9140046   .3298205    -0.25   0.803     .4505993    1.853985
     oilstart |   1.019184   .0102646     1.89   0.059     .9992632    1.039502
 youthstartap |   1.042066   .0195226     2.20   0.028     1.004496     1.08104
muslimajstart |   .8688527   .1776385    -0.69   0.492     .5819913    1.297107
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t1.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file recurrence-t1.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.730              
                                                          (0.351)**            
                       Territory                            2.288              
                                                          (0.506)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.914              
                                                           (0.330)             
                       Oil                                  1.019              
                                                           (0.010)+            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.042              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.869              
                                                           (0.178)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.72893
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.54343
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.54334
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.54334

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       44.30
Log pseudolikelihood =   -640.54334             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5483884   .2025763     2.71   0.007     .1513462    .9454306
    territory |   .8277353   .2210777     3.74   0.000     .3944309     1.26104
  strongstart |  -.0899197   .3608521    -0.25   0.803    -.7971769    .6173375
     oilstart |   .0190026   .0100714     1.89   0.059     -.000737    .0387421
 youthstartap |    .041205   .0187345     2.20   0.028      .004486    .0779239
muslimajstart |  -.1405816   .2044518    -0.69   0.492    -.5412997    .2601365
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.12148         3.15        1         0.0759
      territory   |     -0.02096         0.08        1         0.7725
      strongstart |      0.13245         3.75        1         0.0530
      oilstart    |     -0.01051         0.02        1         0.8880
      youthstartap|     -0.12254         1.51        1         0.2193
      muslimajst~t|      0.05235         0.57        1         0.4506
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      6.03        6         0.4198
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Model 3* NOTE: Alt DV: New groups
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       14.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -377.04618             Prob > chi2      =      0.0242

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |    1.71813   .4202402     2.21   0.027     1.063798    2.774935
    territory |   .5599733    .146519    -2.22   0.027     .3353107    .9351627
  strongstart |   1.065912   .2954512     0.23   0.818      .619133    1.835096
     oilstart |   .9810801    .010902    -1.72   0.086     .9599435    1.002682
 youthstartap |   .9770813   .0299283    -0.76   0.449      .920149    1.037536
muslimajstart |   .9969039   .2312683    -0.01   0.989     .6326827    1.570799
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t1.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.730                           1.718              
                                          (0.351)**                        (0.420)*            
       Territory                            2.288                           0.560              
                                          (0.506)**                        (0.147)*            
       Strong rebels                        0.914                           1.066              
                                           (0.330)                         (0.295)             
       Oil                                  1.019                           0.981              
                                           (0.010)+                        (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.042                           0.977              
                                           (0.020)*                        (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      0.869                           0.997              
                                           (0.178)                         (0.231)             
       N                                    6,194                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.15644
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.04622
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.04618
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.04618

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       14.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -377.04618             Prob > chi2      =      0.0242

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5412365   .2445916     2.21   0.027     .0618457    1.020627
    territory |  -.5798662   .2616535    -2.22   0.027    -1.092698   -.0670347
  strongstart |   .0638308   .2771816     0.23   0.818    -.4794352    .6070968
     oilstart |  -.0191012   .0111123    -1.72   0.086    -.0408809    .0026785
 youthstartap |  -.0231854   .0306303    -0.76   0.449    -.0832197     .036849
muslimajstart |  -.0031009   .2319866    -0.01   0.989    -.4577863    .4515844
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.16061         1.27        1         0.2605
      territory   |      0.08871         0.32        1         0.5698
      strongstart |      0.20672         2.07        1         0.1500
      oilstart    |      0.17189         1.54        1         0.2142
      youthstartap|     -0.04280         0.10        1         0.7481
      muslimajst~t|      0.03882         0.07        1         0.7881
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.18        6         0.5208
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 2
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1 see do-file on termination//
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2* foreign fighter & govmilsupport
. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       68.16
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.08868             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.481661    .331853     1.76   0.079     .9552175    2.298241
     territory |   2.580054   .5722577     4.27   0.000     1.670443    3.984978
   strongstart |   .8562859   .3058779    -0.43   0.664     .4251647    1.724569
      oilstart |   1.022248   .0102843     2.19   0.029     1.002289    1.042605
  youthstartap |   1.047867   .0202207     2.42   0.015     1.008975    1.088258
 muslimajstart |   .7943882   .1651441    -1.11   0.268     .5285399    1.193954
foreignfighter |   1.831248   .4203299     2.64   0.008     1.167802    2.871607
 govmilsupport |    .804722   .2136865    -0.82   0.413     .4782084    1.354174
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t2.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file recurrence-t2.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.482              
                                                           (0.332)+            
                       Territory                            2.580              
                                                          (0.572)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.856              
                                                           (0.306)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.794              
                                                           (0.165)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.831              
                                                          (0.420)**            
                       Government support                   0.805              
                                                           (0.214)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoe
> nfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.32332
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -637.0888
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.08868
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.08868

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       68.16
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.08868             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |    .393164   .2239736     1.76   0.079    -.0458162    .8321442
     territory |   .9478105   .2218007     4.27   0.000     .5130892    1.382532
   strongstart |  -.1551509   .3572146    -0.43   0.664    -.8552787    .5449769
      oilstart |    .022004   .0100604     2.19   0.029      .002286    .0417221
  youthstartap |   .0467568    .019297     2.42   0.015     .0089353    .0845783
 muslimajstart |   -.230183   .2078885    -1.11   0.268    -.6376369    .1772709
foreignfighter |   .6049975    .229532     2.64   0.008     .1551231    1.054872
 govmilsupport |  -.2172584   .2655407    -0.82   0.413    -.7377086    .3031918
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.08583         1.59        1         0.2080
      territory   |     -0.02309         0.09        1         0.7599
      strongstart |      0.13080         3.53        1         0.0603
      oilstart    |      0.00520         0.00        1         0.9443
      youthstartap|     -0.11099         1.22        1         0.2703
      muslimajst~t|      0.04837         0.49        1         0.4838
      foreignfig~r|      0.02029         0.06        1         0.8096
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.04648         0.20        1         0.6521
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.51        8         0.7017
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Model 3* NOTE: DV: New groups
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       27.38
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.63914             Prob > chi2      =      0.0006

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.349467   .3271536     1.24   0.216     .8390816    2.170304
     territory |   .6836992   .1849509    -1.41   0.160     .4023484    1.161791
   strongstart |   .9425859   .2567564    -0.22   0.828      .552659    1.607624
      oilstart |   .9836028   .0106786    -1.52   0.128     .9628942    1.004757
  youthstartap |   .9760411   .0298003    -0.79   0.427     .9193469    1.036232
 muslimajstart |   .8743121   .2114671    -0.56   0.579     .5442382    1.404572
foreignfighter |   1.864233   .4450334     2.61   0.009     1.167615    2.976465
 govmilsupport |   1.888495   .4570909     2.63   0.009     1.175145    3.034873
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t2.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.482                           1.349              
                                           (0.332)+                        (0.327)             
       Territory                            2.580                           0.684              
                                          (0.572)**                        (0.185)             
       Strong rebels                        0.856                           0.943              
                                           (0.306)                         (0.257)             
       Oil                                  1.022                           0.984              
                                           (0.010)*                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048                           0.976              
                                           (0.020)*                        (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      0.794                           0.874              
                                           (0.165)                         (0.211)             
       Foreign fighters                     1.831                           1.864              
                                          (0.420)**                       (0.445)**            
       Government support                   0.805                           1.888              
                                           (0.214)                        (0.457)**            
       N                                    6,194                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoe
> nfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.14674
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.64014
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.63914
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.63914

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       27.38
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.63914             Prob > chi2      =      0.0006

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |     .29971   .2424317     1.24   0.216    -.1754473    .7748673
     territory |  -.3802372    .270515    -1.41   0.160    -.9104369    .1499625
   strongstart |  -.0591282   .2723957    -0.22   0.828     -.593014    .4747576
      oilstart |  -.0165331   .0108566    -1.52   0.128    -.0378117    .0047455
  youthstartap |  -.0242506   .0305318    -0.79   0.427    -.0840917    .0355906
 muslimajstart |  -.1343179   .2418669    -0.56   0.579    -.6083683    .3397325
foreignfighter |   .6228498    .238722     2.61   0.009     .1549633    1.090736
 govmilsupport |   .6357804   .2420397     2.63   0.009     .1613912    1.110169
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.12234         0.66        1         0.4164
      territory   |      0.09958         0.40        1         0.5262
      strongstart |      0.16786         1.26        1         0.2622
      oilstart    |      0.15879         1.30        1         0.2546
      youthstartap|     -0.05166         0.15        1         0.6998
      muslimajst~t|      0.01234         0.01        1         0.9262
      foreignfig~r|     -0.02736         0.04        1         0.8374
      govmilsupp~t|      0.04356         0.08        1         0.7769
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.31        8         0.8281
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 3
. ************************************************
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *violations, leftist interacted with log of time
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1 govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoen
> feld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.81034
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -637.6937
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.69364
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.69364

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       50.90
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.69364             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   .2866363   .1906417     1.50   0.133    -.0870145    .6602871
     territory |    1.04976   .2091571     5.02   0.000     .6398197    1.459701
   strongstart |  -.1344106   .3576932    -0.38   0.707    -.8354763    .5666551
      oilstart |   .0219292    .009878     2.22   0.026     .0025686    .0412898
  youthstartap |   .0532677   .0200756     2.65   0.008     .0139203    .0926151
 muslimajstart |  -.1995696   .1977511    -1.01   0.313    -.5871545    .1880154
 govmilsupport |   -.087827   .2742856    -0.32   0.749    -.6254169    .4497629
foreignfighter |   .7399582   .2084482     3.55   0.000     .3314073    1.148509
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |     -0.19929         5.89        1         0.0153
      territory   |     -0.02427         0.09        1         0.7705
      strongstart |      0.10157         1.96        1         0.1611
      oilstart    |      0.00761         0.01        1         0.9233
      youthstartap|     -0.09686         1.00        1         0.3164
      muslimajst~t|      0.06926         0.90        1         0.3419
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.08753         0.78        1         0.3761
      foreignfig~r|      0.10125         1.38        1         0.2403
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      9.61        8         0.2933
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. gen leftistt=leftist*ln(_t)
(80 missing values generated)

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox leftist leftistt $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       70.51
Log pseudolikelihood =   -632.91993             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   5.032034   2.136434     3.81   0.000     2.189534    11.56472
      leftistt |   .4668785   .1006046    -3.53   0.000      .306044    .7122357
     territory |   2.919262   .6064261     5.16   0.000     1.942901    4.386271
   strongstart |   .9193098   .3262247    -0.24   0.813     .4585703    1.842968
      oilstart |   1.023217   .0100051     2.35   0.019     1.003794    1.043015
  youthstartap |   1.055456   .0210367     2.71   0.007      1.01502    1.097503
 muslimajstart |    .865804   .1680166    -0.74   0.458     .5918842    1.266492
foreignfighter |   2.099177   .4308376     3.61   0.000     1.403936    3.138706
 govmilsupport |   .8883689   .2346709    -0.45   0.654     .5293472    1.490892
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t3.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file recurrence-t3.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Leftist                              5.032              
                                                          (2.136)**            
                       leftistt                             0.467              
                                                          (0.101)**            
                       Territory                            2.919              
                                                          (0.606)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.919              
                                                           (0.326)             
                       Oil                                  1.023              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.055              
                                                          (0.021)**            
                       Muslim majority                      0.866              
                                                           (0.168)             
                       Foreign fighters                     2.099              
                                                          (0.431)**            
                       Government support                   0.888              
                                                           (0.235)             
                       N                                    6,193              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist leftistt $X1 govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca
> *) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -633.25708
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.92005
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.91993
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -632.91993

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       70.51
Log pseudolikelihood =   -632.91993             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   1.615824   .4245666     3.81   0.000     .7836889     2.44796
      leftistt |  -.7616863   .2154835    -3.53   0.000    -1.184026   -.3393463
     territory |   1.071331   .2077327     5.16   0.000     .6641823    1.478479
   strongstart |  -.0841322   .3548583    -0.24   0.813    -.7796416    .6113773
      oilstart |   .0229513    .009778     2.35   0.019     .0037867     .042116
  youthstartap |   .0539729   .0199314     2.71   0.007     .0149081    .0930376
 muslimajstart |  -.1440967   .1940584    -0.74   0.458    -.5244442    .2362508
 govmilsupport |  -.1183682   .2641592    -0.45   0.654    -.6361107    .3993744
foreignfighter |   .7415452   .2052412     3.61   0.000     .3392798    1.143811
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.10359         1.52        1         0.2180
      leftistt    |     -0.10776         1.48        1         0.2236
      territory   |     -0.05196         0.39        1         0.5330
      strongstart |      0.10114         1.93        1         0.1651
      oilstart    |      0.04285         0.28        1         0.5950
      youthstartap|     -0.10664         1.19        1         0.2763
      muslimajst~t|      0.04278         0.32        1         0.5719
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.06460         0.38        1         0.5379
      foreignfig~r|      0.10424         1.43        1         0.2324
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.13        9         0.8228
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox leftist $X1 foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       33.60
Log pseudolikelihood =   -372.92622             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   1.553218   .4070016     1.68   0.093     .9293633    2.595848
     territory |   .7665845   .2070883    -0.98   0.325     .4514534    1.301689
   strongstart |   1.009818   .2866921     0.03   0.973     .5788726    1.761584
      oilstart |    .985253   .0105689    -1.38   0.166     .9647545    1.006187
  youthstartap |   .9812634   .0307552    -0.60   0.546     .9227984    1.043433
 muslimajstart |   1.010495   .2318932     0.05   0.964     .6444608    1.584426
foreignfighter |   1.943133   .4670952     2.76   0.006     1.213078    3.112551
 govmilsupport |   2.023594   .4925115     2.90   0.004     1.255897    3.260564
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t3.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Leftist                              5.032                           1.553              
                                          (2.136)**                        (0.407)+            
       leftistt                             0.467                                              
                                          (0.101)**                                            
       Territory                            2.919                           0.767              
                                          (0.606)**                        (0.207)             
       Strong rebels                        0.919                           1.010              
                                           (0.326)                         (0.287)             
       Oil                                  1.023                           0.985              
                                           (0.010)*                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.055                           0.981              
                                          (0.021)**                        (0.031)             
       Muslim majority                      0.866                           1.010              
                                           (0.168)                         (0.232)             
       Foreign fighters                     2.099                           1.943              
                                          (0.431)**                       (0.467)**            
       Government support                   0.888                           2.024              
                                           (0.235)                        (0.493)**            
       N                                    6,193                           6,193              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1 govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoen
> feld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.29608
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.45527
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.92706
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.92622
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.92622
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.92622

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       33.60
Log pseudolikelihood =   -372.92622             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       leftist |   .4403288   .2620377     1.68   0.093    -.0732556    .9539132
     territory |  -.2658104   .2701441    -0.98   0.325    -.7952831    .2636624
   strongstart |   .0097701   .2839047     0.03   0.973    -.5466729    .5662132
      oilstart |  -.0148569   .0107271    -1.38   0.166    -.0358816    .0061678
  youthstartap |  -.0189143   .0313425    -0.60   0.546    -.0803445    .0425158
 muslimajstart |   .0104405   .2294847     0.05   0.964    -.4393413    .4602222
 govmilsupport |   .7048753   .2433845     2.90   0.004     .2278504      1.1819
foreignfighter |   .6643019   .2403824     2.76   0.006     .1931609    1.135443
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.17346         1.81        1         0.1783
      territory   |      0.13302         0.78        1         0.3762
      strongstart |      0.22998         2.51        1         0.1131
      oilstart    |      0.11910         0.69        1         0.4055
      youthstartap|     -0.07907         0.39        1         0.5336
      muslimajst~t|     -0.02187         0.03        1         0.8701
      govmilsupp~t|      0.04030         0.07        1         0.7865
      foreignfig~r|     -0.04612         0.14        1         0.7083
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.35        8         0.7199
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE 4
. ************************************************
. 
. *termination type and PKO*
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1* 
. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca govv rebv lowcease if outcome !=. , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       72.89
Log pseudolikelihood =   -629.12234             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.656182   .3351022     2.49   0.013     1.113989    2.462268
    territory |   2.061161   .4613306     3.23   0.001     1.329216     3.19616
  strongstart |   1.204273   .4793313     0.47   0.641     .5519822    2.627392
     oilstart |   1.022128   .0108009     2.07   0.038     1.001176    1.043518
 youthstartap |   1.035275   .0197394     1.82   0.069     .9973006    1.074696
muslimajstart |   .8486281   .1774341    -0.79   0.432     .5633071    1.278467
          pko |   .7365364   .1168045    -1.93   0.054     .5397658    1.005039
           ca |   1.518437   .5329624     1.19   0.234     .7631852    3.021089
         govv |    .532636   .2355869    -1.42   0.154     .2238417    1.267419
         rebv |   .5068647   .3433879    -1.00   0.316      .134346    1.912314
     lowcease |   1.853386   .5254075     2.18   0.030     1.063317    3.230494
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t4.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file recurrence-t4.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.656              
                                                           (0.335)*            
                       Territory                            2.061              
                                                          (0.461)**            
                       Strong rebels                        1.204              
                                                           (0.479)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.011)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.035              
                                                           (0.020)+            
                       Muslim majority                      0.849              
                                                           (0.177)             
                       Peacekeeping presence                0.737              
                                                           (0.117)+            
                       Ceasefire agreement                  1.518              
                                                           (0.533)             
                       Government victory                   0.533              
                                                           (0.236)             
                       Rebel victory                        0.507              
                                                           (0.343)             
                       Low activity                         1.853              
                                                           (0.525)*            
                       N                                    6,144              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca govv rebv lowcease if outcome !=. , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsc
> h(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.32354
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.90405
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -629.1295
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.12234
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.12234
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.12234

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       72.89
Log pseudolikelihood =   -629.12234             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5045151   .2023341     2.49   0.013     .1079476    .9010827
    territory |   .7232696   .2238207     3.23   0.001      .284589     1.16195
  strongstart |   .1858761   .3980254     0.47   0.641    -.5942394    .9659916
     oilstart |   .0218867   .0105671     2.07   0.038     .0011756    .0425978
 youthstartap |   .0346673   .0190668     1.82   0.069     -.002703    .0720375
muslimajstart |  -.1641342   .2090835    -0.79   0.432    -.5739303    .2456619
          pko |  -.3057966   .1585862    -1.93   0.054      -.61662    .0050267
           ca |   .4176813   .3509942     1.19   0.234    -.2702546    1.105617
         govv |   -.629917   .4423037    -1.42   0.154    -1.496816    .2369823
         rebv |  -.6795111   .6774744    -1.00   0.316    -2.007337    .6483143
     lowcease |   .6170143   .2834852     2.18   0.030     .0613936    1.172635
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.10703         2.41        1         0.1202
      territory   |      0.01222         0.03        1         0.8659
      strongstart |      0.09464         2.07        1         0.1501
      oilstart    |      0.01157         0.03        1         0.8736
      youthstartap|     -0.11041         1.23        1         0.2674
      muslimajst~t|      0.07231         1.10        1         0.2933
      pko         |      0.02112         0.05        1         0.8219
      ca          |     -0.06552         0.74        1         0.3897
      govv        |      0.02853         0.11        1         0.7360
      rebv        |     -0.00406         0.00        1         0.9549
      lowcease    |     -0.03708         0.18        1         0.6710
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.08       11         0.7929
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca govv rebv lowcease if outcome !=., cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =           69
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       28.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -358.50606             Prob > chi2      =      0.0030

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.711032   .4118111     2.23   0.026     1.067557    2.742365
    territory |    .475996   .1295575    -2.73   0.006      .279204    .8114935
  strongstart |   1.181025   .3702295     0.53   0.596     .6388858    2.183208
     oilstart |   .9841882   .0107098    -1.46   0.143     .9634196    1.005404
 youthstartap |   .9859362   .0299749    -0.47   0.641     .9289026    1.046471
muslimajstart |   .8684663   .2055647    -0.60   0.551     .5461034    1.381119
          pko |   1.575611   .3349988     2.14   0.032     1.038654    2.390162
           ca |   .9258601   .4671712    -0.15   0.879      .344386    2.489117
         govv |   .5062275   .2930346    -1.18   0.240      .162787    1.574243
         rebv |   1.419184   .7009297     0.71   0.478     .5390557    3.736319
     lowcease |   1.922169   .6373931     1.97   0.049     1.003535    3.681721
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using recurrence-t4.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.656                           1.711              
                                           (0.335)*                        (0.412)*            
       Territory                            2.061                           0.476              
                                          (0.461)**                       (0.130)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.204                           1.181              
                                           (0.479)                         (0.370)             
       Oil                                  1.022                           0.984              
                                           (0.011)*                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.035                           0.986              
                                           (0.020)+                        (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      0.849                           0.868              
                                           (0.177)                         (0.206)             
       Peacekeeping presence                0.737                           1.576              
                                           (0.117)+                        (0.335)*            
       Ceasefire agreement                  1.518                           0.926              
                                           (0.533)                         (0.467)             
       Government victory                   0.533                           0.506              
                                           (0.236)                         (0.293)             
       Rebel victory                        0.507                           1.419              
                                           (0.343)                         (0.701)             
       Low activity                         1.853                           1.922              
                                           (0.525)*                        (0.637)*            
       N                                    6,144                           6,144              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca govv rebv lowcease if outcome !=. , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsc
> h(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -370.67357
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.88111
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.50882
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.50606
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.50606
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.50606

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =           69
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(11)    =       28.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -358.50606             Prob > chi2      =      0.0030

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5370967   .2406799     2.23   0.026     .0653727    1.008821
    territory |  -.7423457    .272182    -2.73   0.006    -1.275813   -.2088789
  strongstart |   .1663828   .3134814     0.53   0.596    -.4480295    .7807952
     oilstart |  -.0159382   .0108819    -1.46   0.143    -.0372663    .0053899
 youthstartap |  -.0141637   .0304024    -0.47   0.641    -.0737514     .045424
muslimajstart |  -.1410265   .2366985    -0.60   0.551     -.604947     .322894
          pko |   .4546433   .2126151     2.14   0.032     .0379253    .8713613
           ca |  -.0770321   .5045807    -0.15   0.879    -1.065992    .9119279
         govv |  -.6807692   .5788595    -1.18   0.240    -1.815313    .4537746
         rebv |   .3500823   .4938961     0.71   0.478    -.6179363    1.318101
     lowcease |   .6534543   .3316009     1.97   0.049     .0035284     1.30338
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.09872         0.57        1         0.4500
      territory   |      0.10221         0.41        1         0.5240
      strongstart |      0.10963         0.69        1         0.4056
      oilstart    |      0.14574         1.08        1         0.2984
      youthstartap|     -0.01813         0.02        1         0.8953
      muslimajst~t|      0.03963         0.08        1         0.7758
      pko         |      0.13471         1.04        1         0.3087
      ca          |      0.07427         0.32        1         0.5741
      govv        |     -0.02503         0.05        1         0.8310
      rebv        |      0.06600         0.31        1         0.5797
      lowcease    |     -0.00407         0.00        1         0.9742
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.80       11         0.8864
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. ****ROBUSTNESS****
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A3
. ************************************************
. 
. //See do-file on termination//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A4
. ************************************************
. 
. *alternative survival models*
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1* weibull instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       69.79
Log pseudolikelihood =   -399.54621             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   2.328549    .655499     3.00   0.003      1.34112    4.042995
    territory |   3.103217   .8113634     4.33   0.000     1.858909    5.180436
  strongstart |   .9373996   .3859185    -0.16   0.875     .4183052    2.100663
     oilstart |   1.034224   .0127918     2.72   0.007     1.009453    1.059601
 youthstartap |   1.056857   .0269449     2.17   0.030     1.005343    1.111009
muslimajstart |   .7753205   .2151429    -0.92   0.359     .4500722    1.335612
        _cons |   .0031855   .0028705    -6.38   0.000     .0005447    .0186299
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_p |  -.2895539   .0492769    -5.88   0.000    -.3861349   -.1929729
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            p |   .7485975   .0368886                      .6796788    .8245044
          1/p |   1.335831   .0658257                       1.21285    1.471283
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A4a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A4a.doc not found)
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                 analysis time when record ends  Islamist claim             2.329   
                                                                          (0.655)** 
                                                 Territory                  3.103   
                                                                          (0.811)** 
                                                 Strong rebels              0.937   
                                                                           (0.386)  
                                                 Oil                        1.034   
                                                                          (0.013)** 
                                                 Youth bulge/adult pop.     1.057   
                                                                          (0.027)*  
                                                 Muslim majority            0.775   
                                                                           (0.215)  
                 /                               ln_p                       0.749   
                                                                          (0.037)** 
                 N                                                          6,194   
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =     2062.81
Log pseudolikelihood =    -381.9099             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t            |
     islamist |   .7177656   .2286657     3.14   0.002     .2695892    1.165942
    territory |   .8791587   .2406089     3.65   0.000     .4075739    1.350743
  strongstart |  -.0392199   .3845745    -0.10   0.919     -.792972    .7145322
     oilstart |   .0283079   .0109518     2.58   0.010     .0068427    .0497731
 youthstartap |   .0406591   .0197049     2.06   0.039     .0020382    .0792799
muslimajstart |   -.191045   .2279631    -0.84   0.402    -.6378444    .2557545
              |
        order |
           2  |   1.732073   .7957358     2.18   0.030     .1724595    3.291687
           3  |   3.288115   3.949878     0.83   0.405    -4.453503    11.02973
           4  |   3.720689   6.562324     0.57   0.571    -9.141229    16.58261
           5  |   15.29057   .4390628    34.83   0.000     14.43002    16.15111
           6  |  -5.186899   6.682581    -0.78   0.438    -18.28452    7.910719
           7  |  -17.28416   1.190611   -14.52   0.000    -19.61771    -14.9506
              |
        _cons |  -5.072181   .6685507    -7.59   0.000    -6.382516   -3.761845
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_p          |
        order |
           2  |  -.3943411   .4245908    -0.93   0.353    -1.226524    .4378417
           3  |  -1.186888   2.644097    -0.45   0.654    -6.369223    3.995447
           4  |  -1.088532   4.176447    -0.26   0.794    -9.274218    7.097153
           5  |  -11.35028   .6332122   -17.92   0.000    -12.59136   -10.10921
           6  |   1.192847   .9674001     1.23   0.218    -.7032226    3.088916
           7  |  -8.119782   .0444673  -182.60   0.000    -8.206936   -8.032627
              |
        _cons |  -.4330893   .0444673    -9.74   0.000    -.5202435   -.3459351
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2* exponential instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       77.84
Log pseudolikelihood =   -407.44574             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   2.535658   .7101196     3.32   0.001     1.464566    4.390081
    territory |   3.071462   .8066551     4.27   0.000     1.835671    5.139199
  strongstart |   .9780591   .4048311    -0.05   0.957     .4345522    2.201346
     oilstart |   1.036538   .0128921     2.89   0.004     1.011576    1.062117
 youthstartap |   1.055872   .0267248     2.15   0.032      1.00477    1.109572
muslimajstart |    .749261   .2094965    -1.03   0.302     .4331453    1.296083
        _cons |   .0014574   .0012777    -7.45   0.000     .0002614    .0081253
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A4b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A4b.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       2.536              
                                                          (0.710)**            
                       Territory                            3.071              
                                                          (0.807)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.978              
                                                           (0.405)             
                       Oil                                  1.037              
                                                          (0.013)**            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.056              
                                                           (0.027)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.749              
                                                           (0.209)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      633.00
Log pseudolikelihood =   -398.30711             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .8284534   .2529703     3.27   0.001     .3326408    1.324266
    territory |   .9440724   .2550645     3.70   0.000     .4441551     1.44399
  strongstart |  -.0138756   .3933237    -0.04   0.972    -.7847758    .7570246
     oilstart |   .0328134   .0116963     2.81   0.005      .009889    .0557378
 youthstartap |   .0478942   .0214886     2.23   0.026     .0057774    .0900111
muslimajstart |  -.2448626   .2502775    -0.98   0.328    -.7353976    .2456724
              |
        order |
           2  |   .6568441   .2307637     2.85   0.004     .2045555    1.109133
           3  |   .5506608   .3389148     1.62   0.104    -.1135999    1.214922
           4  |   .9368758   .4910616     1.91   0.056    -.0255873    1.899339
           5  |   1.474267   .6511843     2.26   0.024     .1979696    2.750565
           6  |  -.0142165   .9312754    -0.02   0.988    -1.839483     1.81105
           7  |  -10.63924   1.208745    -8.80   0.000    -13.00834   -8.270144
              |
        _cons |  -6.415256   .7456879    -8.60   0.000    -7.876777   -4.953734
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A5
. ************************************************
. 
. *alternative survival models*
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1* weibull instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(6)       =        9.36
Log likelihood  =   -310.07553                  Prob > chi2      =      0.1541

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   2.109395    .659304     2.39   0.017     1.143167    3.892297
    territory |   .6587326   .2164839    -1.27   0.204     .3459177    1.254427
  strongstart |   1.079827   .3705601     0.22   0.823     .5511253    2.115718
     oilstart |    .987385   .0129234    -0.97   0.332     .9623778    1.013042
 youthstartap |   .9848378   .0346459    -0.43   0.664     .9192211    1.055138
muslimajstart |   .9389031   .2555115    -0.23   0.817     .5507775    1.600536
        _cons |   .1449344   .1794242    -1.56   0.119     .0128059    1.640333
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_p |  -.9967507   .1165899    -8.55   0.000    -1.225263   -.7682387
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            p |   .3690767   .0430306                      .2936805    .4638293
          1/p |   2.709464   .3158962                      2.155966    3.405061
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A5a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A5a.doc not found)
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                 analysis time when record ends  Islamist claim             2.109   
                                                                          (0.659)*  
                                                 Territory                  0.659   
                                                                           (0.216)  
                                                 Strong rebels              1.080   
                                                                           (0.371)  
                                                 Oil                        0.987   
                                                                           (0.013)  
                                                 Youth bulge/adult pop.     0.985   
                                                                           (0.035)  
                                                 Muslim majority            0.939   
                                                                           (0.256)  
                 /                               ln_p                       0.369   
                                                                          (0.043)** 
                 N                                                          6,194   
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. streg islamist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      318.79
Log pseudolikelihood =    -307.6892             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t            |
     islamist |   .7345479   .2555945     2.87   0.004     .2335919    1.235504
    territory |  -.4640375   .2570052    -1.81   0.071    -.9677583    .0396834
  strongstart |   .0796856   .2838721     0.28   0.779    -.4766934    .6360647
     oilstart |  -.0121725   .0112915    -1.08   0.281    -.0343034    .0099583
 youthstartap |  -.0170248   .0301156    -0.57   0.572    -.0760503    .0420006
muslimajstart |  -.0539033   .2388961    -0.23   0.821    -.5221309    .4143244
              |
        order |
           2  |   .9187357   2.202696     0.42   0.677    -3.398469     5.23594
           3  |  -2.073855   1.666892    -1.24   0.213    -5.340903    1.193192
           4  |  -5.115277   .3532877   -14.48   0.000    -5.807708   -4.422846
           5  |  -.6638623   5.363669    -0.12   0.901    -11.17646    9.848736
           6  |   -5.00152   .5848557    -8.55   0.000    -6.147817   -3.855224
           7  |  -4.905511   1.035769    -4.74   0.000    -6.935581   -2.875441
              |
        _cons |  -1.877053   1.053105    -1.78   0.075    -3.941101    .1869952
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_p          |
        order |
           2  |  -.3621535   1.403711    -0.26   0.796    -3.113376    2.389069
           3  |   .7075685   .4592526     1.54   0.123    -.1925501    1.607687
           4  |  -11.14554   .0321313  -346.87   0.000    -11.20851   -11.08256
           5  |   1.046668   1.351007     0.77   0.438    -1.601257    3.694594
           6  |  -11.00202    .032648  -336.99   0.000    -11.06601   -10.93803
           7  |  -10.92351   .0180208  -606.16   0.000    -10.95883   -10.88819
              |
        _cons |  -1.017746   .0180179   -56.49   0.000     -1.05306   -.9824314
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 2* exponential instead of cox, without strata
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       19.66
Log pseudolikelihood =   -363.91543             Prob > chi2      =      0.0032

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   2.484975   .6474534     3.49   0.000     1.491228    4.140953
    territory |   .6611521     .16832    -1.63   0.104     .4014186    1.088943
  strongstart |   1.149361   .3345923     0.48   0.633     .6496234    2.033532
     oilstart |   .9931344   .0117749    -0.58   0.561     .9703221    1.016483
 youthstartap |   .9878442   .0310495    -0.39   0.697      .928825    1.050614
muslimajstart |    .928955   .2255207    -0.30   0.761     .5772315    1.494993
        _cons |   .0170975   .0188336    -3.69   0.000     .0019738    .1481042
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. outreg using appendix-A5b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A5b.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       2.485              
                                                          (0.647)**            
                       Territory                            0.661              
                                                           (0.168)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.149              
                                                           (0.335)             
                       Oil                                  0.993              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.988              
                                                           (0.031)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.929              
                                                           (0.226)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. streg islamist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =     1953.08
Log pseudolikelihood =    -360.5593             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .9567868   .2856043     3.35   0.001     .3970126    1.516561
    territory |    -.33338   .2660598    -1.25   0.210    -.8548476    .1880876
  strongstart |   .1279328   .2927332     0.44   0.662    -.4458138    .7016793
     oilstart |  -.0036081   .0119872    -0.30   0.763    -.0271026    .0198864
 youthstartap |  -.0101095   .0307122    -0.33   0.742    -.0703043    .0500854
muslimajstart |  -.0803833   .2539946    -0.32   0.752    -.5782036     .417437
              |
        order |
           2  |  -.3220935   .3344161    -0.96   0.335    -.9775371    .3333501
           3  |  -1.362447   1.035897    -1.32   0.188    -3.392768    .6678735
           4  |   -13.7371   .3781408   -36.33   0.000    -14.47824   -12.99596
           5  |   1.215705   .9469902     1.28   0.199    -.6403614    3.071772
           6  |  -13.73465   .6231663   -22.04   0.000    -14.95603   -12.51326
           7  |  -13.59364   1.049439   -12.95   0.000     -15.6505   -11.53678
              |
        _cons |  -4.104077   1.076548    -3.81   0.000    -6.214072   -1.994082
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A6
. ************************************************
. 
. //See separate dataset and do-file, two-year-gap//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7a - Foreign fighters
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1, see do-file on termination//
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. gen islamistff=islamist*foreignfighter

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       67.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.06551             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.427314   .3833735     1.32   0.185     .8431185    2.416298
     territory |   2.575952     .56859     4.29   0.000     1.671291    3.970302
   strongstart |   .8573053   .3071927    -0.43   0.667     .4247467    1.730378
      oilstart |     1.0223   .0102974     2.19   0.029     1.002315    1.042683
  youthstartap |   1.048157    .020089     2.45   0.014     1.009513     1.08828
 muslimajstart |   .7932533   .1641989    -1.12   0.263     .5287106    1.190161
    islamistff |    1.10004   .4972102     0.21   0.833      .453598    2.667752
foreignfighter |   1.772042    .539038     1.88   0.060     .9762174    3.216631
 govmilsupport |   .8005417   .2148874    -0.83   0.407     .4730402    1.354783
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7a-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A7a-recur.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.427              
                                                           (0.383)             
                       Territory                            2.576              
                                                          (0.569)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.857              
                                                           (0.307)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.793              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistff                           1.100              
                                                           (0.497)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.772              
                                                           (0.539)+            
                       Government support                   0.801              
                                                           (0.215)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(
> sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.29469
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -637.0657
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.06551
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -637.06551

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       67.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.06551             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .3557944   .2685979     1.32   0.185    -.1706477    .8822366
     territory |   .9462192     .22073     4.29   0.000     .5135963    1.378842
   strongstart |  -.1539611   .3583235    -0.43   0.667    -.8562624    .5483401
      oilstart |   .0220547   .0100728     2.19   0.029     .0023124     .041797
  youthstartap |   .0470333   .0191661     2.45   0.014     .0094685    .0845981
 muslimajstart |  -.2316127   .2069943    -1.12   0.263     -.637314    .1740886
    islamistff |   .0953461    .451993     0.21   0.833     -.790544    .9812362
foreignfighter |   .5721323   .3041904     1.88   0.060    -.0240699    1.168335
 govmilsupport |  -.2224667   .2684275    -0.83   0.407     -.748575    .3036416
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.08983         1.63        1         0.2015
      territory   |     -0.04120         0.31        1         0.5767
      strongstart |      0.07591         1.49        1         0.2220
      oilstart    |      0.00348         0.00        1         0.9623
      youthstartap|     -0.09308         0.85        1         0.3552
      muslimajst~t|      0.02628         0.16        1         0.6922
      islamistff  |     -0.04026         0.40        1         0.5283
      foreignfig~r|      0.04694         0.45        1         0.5016
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.03030         0.09        1         0.7595
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.23        9         0.8139
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. streg islamist##foreignfighter $X1  govmilsupport, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =      109.87
Log pseudolikelihood =    -392.9057             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                          (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        |               Robust
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   1.794246    .642962     1.63   0.103     .8889081    3.621656
       1.foreignfighter |   2.271302   .8979576     2.08   0.038     1.046533    4.929431
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |   1.096665   .6174092     0.16   0.870      .363796    3.305904
                        |
              territory |   3.669396   .9315028     5.12   0.000     2.231059    6.035014
            strongstart |   .8368416   .3540624    -0.42   0.674     .3651785    1.917703
               oilstart |    1.03744   .0125153     3.05   0.002     1.013198    1.062262
           youthstartap |    1.06608   .0276275     2.47   0.014     1.013283    1.121628
          muslimajstart |   .6997968   .1930671    -1.29   0.196     .4075057    1.201739
          govmilsupport |   .8609224   .2737636    -0.47   0.638     .4616274    1.605597
                  _cons |   .0019468   .0018471    -6.58   0.000     .0003032    .0125002
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  /ln_p |  -.2862783    .049622    -5.77   0.000    -.3835356   -.1890209
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                      p |   .7510536   .0372688                      .6814478    .8277692
                    1/p |   1.331463   .0660698                      1.208066    1.467464
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(8)       =       41.74
Log likelihood  =   -637.08868                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      1.islamist |   1.481661   .3277853     1.78   0.076     .9603713    2.285908
1.foreignfighter |   1.831248   .4343072     2.55   0.011     1.150462    2.914889
       territory |   2.580054   .5765534     4.24   0.000     1.665001    3.998003
     strongstart |   .8562859   .3127143    -0.42   0.671     .4185634    1.751767
        oilstart |   1.022248   .0098624     2.28   0.023       1.0031    1.041762
    youthstartap |   1.047867   .0248606     1.97   0.049     1.000257    1.097744
   muslimajstart |   .7943882   .1599125    -1.14   0.253     .5354065    1.178642
   govmilsupport |    .804722   .2937792    -0.60   0.552      .393458    1.645862
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       41.79
Log likelihood  =   -637.06551                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   1.427314   .4047743     1.25   0.210     .8187022     2.48836
       1.foreignfighter |   1.772042   .5028535     2.02   0.044      1.01608    3.090438
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |    1.10004   .4880335     0.21   0.830     .4610755    2.624488
                        |
              territory |   2.575952   .5753914     4.24   0.000     1.662664    3.990901
            strongstart |   .8573053   .3132083    -0.42   0.673     .4189452     1.75434
               oilstart |     1.0223   .0098545     2.29   0.022     1.003167    1.041798
           youthstartap |   1.048157   .0249231     1.98   0.048     1.000429    1.098161
          muslimajstart |   .7932533   .1599952    -1.15   0.251     .5342306    1.177864
          govmilsupport |   .8005417   .2927626    -0.61   0.543     .3909262    1.639355
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      0.05
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.8296

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       41.79
Log likelihood  =   -637.06551                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   1.427314   .4047743     1.25   0.210     .8187022     2.48836
       1.foreignfighter |   1.772042   .5028535     2.02   0.044      1.01608    3.090438
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |    1.10004   .4880335     0.21   0.830     .4610755    2.624488
                        |
              territory |   2.575952   .5753914     4.24   0.000     1.662664    3.990901
            strongstart |   .8573053   .3132083    -0.42   0.673     .4189452     1.75434
               oilstart |     1.0223   .0098545     2.29   0.022     1.003167    1.041798
           youthstartap |   1.048157   .0249231     1.98   0.048     1.000429    1.098161
          muslimajstart |   .7932533   .1599952    -1.15   0.251     .5342306    1.177864
          govmilsupport |   .8005417   .2927626    -0.61   0.543     .3909262    1.639355
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.foreignfighter=1.islamist#1.foreignfighter

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.foreignfighter - 1.islamist#1.foreignfighter = 0

           chi2(  1) =    0.05
         Prob > chi2 =    0.8298

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       30.18
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.56654             Prob > chi2      =      0.0004

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.199594   .4128817     0.53   0.597     .6110321    2.355075
     territory |   .6805247   .1832101    -1.43   0.153     .4014989    1.153462
   strongstart |   .9388932   .2547089    -0.23   0.816     .5516922    1.597848
      oilstart |   .9831453   .0106893    -1.56   0.118     .9624162    1.004321
  youthstartap |   .9759764   .0297923    -0.80   0.426     .9192971     1.03615
 muslimajstart |    .870734   .2110396    -0.57   0.568      .541477    1.400203
    islamistff |   1.259922    .563073     0.52   0.605     .5247254    3.025206
foreignfighter |   1.754693   .5114112     1.93   0.054     .9910953    3.106609
 govmilsupport |   1.892938   .4534234     2.66   0.008     1.183708     3.02711
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7a-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) append

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.427              
                                                           (0.383)             
                       Territory                            2.576              
                                                          (0.569)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.857              
                                                           (0.307)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.793              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistff                           1.100              
                                                           (0.497)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.772              
                                                           (0.539)+            
                       Government support                   0.801              
                                                           (0.215)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                       Islamist claim                       1.200              
                                                           (0.413)             
                       Territory                            0.681              
                                                           (0.183)             
                       Strong rebels                        0.939              
                                                           (0.255)             
                       Oil                                  0.983              
                                                           (0.011)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.976              
                                                           (0.030)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.871              
                                                           (0.211)             
                       islamistff                           1.260              
                                                           (0.563)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.755              
                                                           (0.511)+            
                       Government support                   1.893              
                                                          (0.453)**            
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(
> sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.39404
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.57332
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.56654
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.56654
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.56654

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       30.18
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.56654             Prob > chi2      =      0.0004

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .1819833   .3441844     0.53   0.597    -.4926058    .8565724
     territory |  -.3848911   .2692189    -1.43   0.153    -.9125505    .1427683
   strongstart |  -.0630535   .2712863    -0.23   0.816     -.594765    .4686579
      oilstart |  -.0169984   .0108726    -1.56   0.118    -.0383083    .0043115
  youthstartap |  -.0243169   .0305256    -0.80   0.426    -.0841459    .0355122
 muslimajstart |  -.1384188   .2423697    -0.57   0.568    -.6134547    .3366172
    islamistff |   .2310496   .4469111     0.52   0.605    -.6448802    1.106979
foreignfighter |   .5622936   .2914534     1.93   0.054    -.0089446    1.133532
 govmilsupport |   .6381301   .2395342     2.66   0.008     .1686517    1.107608
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.01347         0.01        1         0.9283
      territory   |      0.10979         0.48        1         0.4863
      strongstart |      0.17715         1.38        1         0.2395
      oilstart    |      0.16428         1.42        1         0.2326
      youthstartap|     -0.05195         0.15        1         0.6964
      muslimajst~t|      0.00121         0.00        1         0.9927
      islamistff  |     -0.10989         0.50        1         0.4800
      foreignfig~r|      0.04155         0.11        1         0.7413
      govmilsupp~t|      0.05289         0.12        1         0.7266
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.93        9         0.8408
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(8)       =       17.72
Log likelihood  =   -373.63914                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0235

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      1.islamist |   1.349467   .4426797     0.91   0.361     .7094699    2.566793
1.foreignfighter |   1.864233   .5345292     2.17   0.030     1.062763    3.270123
       territory |   .6836992   .2437426    -1.07   0.286     .3399437    1.375065
     strongstart |   .9425859   .3294127    -0.17   0.866     .4751656    1.869807
        oilstart |   .9836028   .0128461    -1.27   0.206     .9587444    1.009106
    youthstartap |   .9760411   .0352654    -0.67   0.502     .9093128    1.047666
   muslimajstart |   .8743121   .2447063    -0.48   0.631     .5051594    1.513228
   govmilsupport |   1.888495   .6027892     1.99   0.046     1.010231    3.530296
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       17.86
Log likelihood  =   -373.56654                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0368

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   1.199594   .5524941     0.40   0.693     .4864056     2.95849
       1.foreignfighter |   1.754693   .5808161     1.70   0.089     .9171641    3.357028
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |   1.259922   .7684474     0.38   0.705      .381225    4.163952
                        |
              territory |   .6805247   .2423756    -1.08   0.280     .3385947    1.367753
            strongstart |   .9388932   .3280321    -0.18   0.857     .4733931    1.862132
               oilstart |   .9831453   .0128686    -1.30   0.194      .958244    1.008694
           youthstartap |   .9759764   .0353026    -0.67   0.501     .9091803     1.04768
          muslimajstart |    .870734   .2446556    -0.49   0.622     .5020166    1.510264
          govmilsupport |   1.892938   .6013503     2.01   0.045     1.015607    3.528149
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      0.15
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.7032

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.foreignfighter $X1 govmilsupport, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       17.86
Log likelihood  =   -373.56654                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0368

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             1.islamist |   1.199594   .5524941     0.40   0.693     .4864056     2.95849
       1.foreignfighter |   1.754693   .5808161     1.70   0.089     .9171641    3.357028
                        |
islamist#foreignfighter |
                   1 1  |   1.259922   .7684474     0.38   0.705      .381225    4.163952
                        |
              territory |   .6805247   .2423756    -1.08   0.280     .3385947    1.367753
            strongstart |   .9388932   .3280321    -0.18   0.857     .4733931    1.862132
               oilstart |   .9831453   .0128686    -1.30   0.194      .958244    1.008694
           youthstartap |   .9759764   .0353026    -0.67   0.501     .9091803     1.04768
          muslimajstart |    .870734   .2446556    -0.49   0.622     .5020166    1.510264
          govmilsupport |   1.892938   .6013503     2.01   0.045     1.015607    3.528149
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.foreignfighter=1.islamist#1.foreignfighter

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.foreignfighter - 1.islamist#1.foreignfighter = 0

           chi2(  1) =    0.14
         Prob > chi2 =    0.7048

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7b - Foreign fighters is absent
. ************************************************
. 
. **Model 2 and 3, when Foreign Fighter is 0*
. gen foreignfighter0=.
(6,927 missing values generated)

. recode foreignfighter0 .=1 if foreignfighter==0
(foreignfighter0: 5753 changes made)

. recode foreignfighter0 .=0 if foreignfighter==1
(foreignfighter0: 1174 changes made)

. tab foreignfighter0 foreignfighter

foreignfig |   Foreign fighters
     hter0 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |         0      1,174 |     1,174 
         1 |     5,753          0 |     5,753 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     5,753      1,174 |     6,927 

. 
. gen islamistff0=islamist*foreignfighter0

. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff0 foreignfighter0 govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       67.53
Log pseudolikelihood =   -637.06551             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   1.570102   .5981048     1.18   0.236     .7441773    3.312678
      territory |   2.575952     .56859     4.29   0.000     1.671291    3.970302
    strongstart |   .8573053   .3071927    -0.43   0.667     .4247467    1.730378
       oilstart |     1.0223   .0102974     2.19   0.029     1.002315    1.042683
   youthstartap |   1.048157    .020089     2.45   0.014     1.009513     1.08828
  muslimajstart |   .7932533   .1641989    -1.12   0.263     .5287106    1.190161
    islamistff0 |   .9090582    .410888    -0.21   0.833     .3748474    2.204595
foreignfighter0 |   .5643209    .171661    -1.88   0.060     .3108843    1.024362
  govmilsupport |   .8005417   .2148874    -0.83   0.407     .4730402    1.354783
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7b-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A7b-recur.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.570              
                                                           (0.598)             
                       Territory                            2.576              
                                                          (0.569)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.857              
                                                           (0.307)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.793              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistff0                          0.909              
                                                           (0.411)             
                       foreignfighter0                      0.564              
                                                           (0.172)+            
                       Government support                   0.801              
                                                           (0.215)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistff0 foreignfighter0 govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       30.18
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.56654             Prob > chi2      =      0.0004

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   1.511395   .4878864     1.28   0.201     .8027965    2.845446
      territory |   .6805247   .1832101    -1.43   0.153     .4014989    1.153462
    strongstart |   .9388932   .2547089    -0.23   0.816     .5516922    1.597848
       oilstart |   .9831453   .0106893    -1.56   0.118     .9624162    1.004321
   youthstartap |   .9759764   .0297923    -0.80   0.426     .9192971     1.03615
  muslimajstart |    .870734   .2110396    -0.57   0.568      .541477    1.400203
    islamistff0 |   .7937001   .3547134    -0.52   0.605      .330556    1.905759
foreignfighter0 |   .5699004   .1660994    -1.93   0.054     .3218944    1.008985
  govmilsupport |   1.892938   .4534234     2.66   0.008     1.183708     3.02711
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7b-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) append

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.570              
                                                           (0.598)             
                       Territory                            2.576              
                                                          (0.569)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.857              
                                                           (0.307)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.793              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistff0                          0.909              
                                                           (0.411)             
                       foreignfighter0                      0.564              
                                                           (0.172)+            
                       Government support                   0.801              
                                                           (0.215)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                       Islamist claim                       1.511              
                                                           (0.488)             
                       Territory                            0.681              
                                                           (0.183)             
                       Strong rebels                        0.939              
                                                           (0.255)             
                       Oil                                  0.983              
                                                           (0.011)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.976              
                                                           (0.030)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.871              
                                                           (0.211)             
                       islamistff0                          0.794              
                                                           (0.355)             
                       foreignfighter0                      0.570              
                                                           (0.166)+            
                       Government support                   1.893              
                                                          (0.453)**            
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7c - Govmilsupport
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1, see do-file on termination//
. 
. *violations, strongstart interacted with time
. gen strongstartt=strongstart*(_t)
(192 missing values generated)

. gen islamistgovmil=islamist*govmilsupport

. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil foreignfighter govmilsupport strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strata(
> order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       68.44
Log pseudolikelihood =   -635.75033             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.396892   .3060586     1.53   0.127     .9092117    2.146154
     territory |   2.572903   .5739206     4.24   0.000     1.661696     3.98378
   strongstart |   .5384992   .2596056    -1.28   0.199     .2093286    1.385293
      oilstart |    1.02197   .0103164     2.15   0.031     1.001949    1.042391
  youthstartap |   1.048489   .0200885     2.47   0.013     1.009846     1.08861
 muslimajstart |   .7650808   .1640219    -1.25   0.212     .5025999    1.164641
islamistgovmil |   2.049765   1.161852     1.27   0.205     .6748771    6.225635
foreignfighter |   1.838471   .4250221     2.63   0.008     1.168622    2.892275
 govmilsupport |   .5748621   .2471975    -1.29   0.198     .2474782    1.335336
  strongstartt |   1.080431   .0628947     1.33   0.184     .9639322     1.21101
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7c-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A7c-recur.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.397              
                                                           (0.306)             
                       Territory                            2.573              
                                                          (0.574)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.538              
                                                           (0.260)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.765              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistgovmil                       2.050              
                                                           (1.162)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.838              
                                                          (0.425)**            
                       Government support                   0.575              
                                                           (0.247)             
                       strongstartt                         1.080              
                                                           (0.063)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil foreignfighter govmilsupport strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strata(
> order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -636.20061
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -635.75331
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -635.75033
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -635.75033
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -635.75033

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       68.44
Log pseudolikelihood =   -635.75033             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .3342501   .2190996     1.53   0.127    -.0951773    .7636774
     territory |   .9450348   .2230634     4.24   0.000     .5078385    1.382231
   strongstart |  -.6189692    .482091    -1.28   0.199     -1.56385    .3259118
      oilstart |   .0217319   .0100946     2.15   0.031     .0019468    .0415169
  youthstartap |     .04735   .0191595     2.47   0.013     .0097981    .0849018
 muslimajstart |  -.2677738   .2143851    -1.25   0.212    -.6879608    .1524132
islamistgovmil |   .7177254   .5668217     1.27   0.205    -.3932247    1.828675
foreignfighter |   .6089342   .2311824     2.63   0.008      .155825    1.062043
 govmilsupport |  -.5536251   .4300118    -1.29   0.198    -1.396433    .2891826
  strongstartt |   .0773602   .0582126     1.33   0.184    -.0367344    .1914547
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.06969         0.99        1         0.3208
      territory   |     -0.01718         0.06        1         0.8117
      strongstart |      0.03886         0.21        1         0.6491
      oilstart    |      0.01456         0.04        1         0.8430
      youthstartap|     -0.09420         0.85        1         0.3571
      muslimajst~t|      0.02326         0.12        1         0.7250
      islamistgo~l|      0.06335         0.49        1         0.4819
      foreignfig~r|      0.01743         0.05        1         0.8308
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.08003         0.84        1         0.3581
      strongstartt|      0.02394         0.12        1         0.7265
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.42       10         0.9698
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter strongstartt, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       43.43
Log likelihood  =    -636.2434                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     1.islamist |   1.483451   .3279569     1.78   0.074     .9618162    2.287991
1.govmilsupport |   .7909529   .2888912    -0.64   0.521      .386593    1.618256
      territory |   2.558476   .5710749     4.21   0.000     1.651907    3.962572
    strongstart |   .5181438   .2822733    -1.21   0.227     .1781289    1.507184
       oilstart |   1.022708   .0099032     2.32   0.020     1.003481    1.042303
   youthstartap |   1.047911   .0248594     1.97   0.049     1.000303    1.097785
  muslimajstart |   .7841664   .1587563    -1.20   0.230     .5273276      1.1661
 foreignfighter |   1.848569   .4388376     2.59   0.010     1.160824    2.943778
   strongstartt |   1.080008   .0577726     1.44   0.150     .9725095    1.199389
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter strongstartt, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(10)      =       44.42
Log likelihood  =   -635.75033                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   1.396892   .3247535     1.44   0.151     .8856726    2.203194
       1.govmilsupport |   .5748621   .3014246    -1.06   0.291      .205704    1.606515
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   2.049765   1.486926     0.99   0.322     .4945743    8.495262
                       |
             territory |   2.572903   .5763591     4.22   0.000     1.658612    3.991187
           strongstart |   .5384992   .2929283    -1.14   0.255     .1854196     1.56392
              oilstart |    1.02197   .0098763     2.25   0.025     1.002795    1.041511
          youthstartap |   1.048489   .0248124     2.00   0.045     1.000968    1.098266
         muslimajstart |   .7650808   .1571226    -1.30   0.192     .5115621    1.144238
        foreignfighter |   1.838471   .4357033     2.57   0.010      1.15539    2.925398
          strongstartt |   1.080431   .0574547     1.45   0.146     .9734917    1.199118
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      0.99
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.3207

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter strongstartt, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =          149
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(10)      =       44.42
Log likelihood  =   -635.75033                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   1.396892   .3247535     1.44   0.151     .8856726    2.203194
       1.govmilsupport |   .5748621   .3014246    -1.06   0.291      .205704    1.606515
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   2.049765   1.486926     0.99   0.322     .4945743    8.495262
                       |
             territory |   2.572903   .5763591     4.22   0.000     1.658612    3.991187
           strongstart |   .5384992   .2929283    -1.14   0.255     .1854196     1.56392
              oilstart |    1.02197   .0098763     2.25   0.025     1.002795    1.041511
          youthstartap |   1.048489   .0248124     2.00   0.045     1.000968    1.098266
         muslimajstart |   .7650808   .1571226    -1.30   0.192     .5115621    1.144238
        foreignfighter |   1.838471   .4357033     2.57   0.010      1.15539    2.925398
          strongstartt |   1.080431   .0574547     1.45   0.146     .9734917    1.199118
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.govmilsupport=1.islamist#1.govmilsupport

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.govmilsupport - 1.islamist#1.govmilsupport = 0

           chi2(  1) =    0.98
         Prob > chi2 =    0.3225

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       29.41
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.60532             Prob > chi2      =      0.0006

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.287874   .3651363     0.89   0.372     .7388252     2.24494
     territory |   .6861377   .1856664    -1.39   0.164      .403719     1.16612
   strongstart |   .9614379   .2699842    -0.14   0.889     .5544889    1.667054
      oilstart |   .9835009   .0106182    -1.54   0.123     .9629083    1.004534
  youthstartap |   .9765657   .0298095    -0.78   0.437     .9198535    1.036774
 muslimajstart |    .868161   .2123259    -0.58   0.563      .537554    1.402098
islamistgovmil |   1.186422   .5753234     0.35   0.724     .4586397    3.069068
foreignfighter |   1.861616   .4419098     2.62   0.009     1.169047    2.964477
 govmilsupport |   1.786208   .5555831     1.87   0.062      .970899    3.286172
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7c-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) append

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.397              
                                                           (0.306)             
                       Territory                            2.573              
                                                          (0.574)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.538              
                                                           (0.260)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.765              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistgovmil                       2.050              
                                                           (1.162)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.838              
                                                          (0.425)**            
                       Government support                   0.575              
                                                           (0.247)             
                       strongstartt                         1.080              
                                                           (0.063)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                       Islamist claim                       1.288              
                                                           (0.365)             
                       Territory                            0.686              
                                                           (0.186)             
                       Strong rebels                        0.961              
                                                           (0.270)             
                       Oil                                  0.984              
                                                           (0.011)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.977              
                                                           (0.030)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.868              
                                                           (0.212)             
                       islamistgovmil                       1.186              
                                                           (0.575)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.862              
                                                          (0.442)**            
                       Government support                   1.786              
                                                           (0.556)+            
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil foreignfighter govmilsupport, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaled
> sch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.85184
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.63768
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.60538
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.60532
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -373.60532

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       29.41
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.60532             Prob > chi2      =      0.0006

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .2529925   .2835187     0.89   0.372     -.302694    .8086789
     territory |  -.3766769   .2705965    -1.39   0.164    -.9070363    .1536824
   strongstart |  -.0393254   .2808129    -0.14   0.889    -.5897086    .5110579
      oilstart |  -.0166367   .0107963    -1.54   0.123    -.0377971    .0045236
  youthstartap |  -.0237132   .0305249    -0.78   0.437    -.0835409    .0361144
 muslimajstart |  -.1413781   .2445697    -0.58   0.563     -.620726    .3379697
islamistgovmil |   .1709417   .4849232     0.35   0.724    -.7794904    1.121374
foreignfighter |   .6214449   .2373797     2.62   0.009     .1561893    1.086701
 govmilsupport |   .5800952   .3110404     1.87   0.062    -.0295329    1.189723
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.13763         0.89        1         0.3463
      territory   |      0.09871         0.40        1         0.5289
      strongstart |      0.18086         1.46        1         0.2264
      oilstart    |      0.15868         1.29        1         0.2569
      youthstartap|     -0.05009         0.14        1         0.7084
      muslimajst~t|      0.00464         0.00        1         0.9722
      islamistgo~l|      0.08611         0.31        1         0.5776
      foreignfig~r|     -0.03310         0.06        1         0.8034
      govmilsupp~t|     -0.00753         0.00        1         0.9577
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.50        9         0.8757
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *lrtest*
. stcox i.islamist i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(8)       =       17.72
Log likelihood  =   -373.63914                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0235

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     1.islamist |   1.349467   .4426797     0.91   0.361     .7094699    2.566793
1.govmilsupport |   1.888495   .6027892     1.99   0.046     1.010231    3.530296
      territory |   .6836992   .2437426    -1.07   0.286     .3399437    1.375065
    strongstart |   .9425859   .3294127    -0.17   0.866     .4751656    1.869807
       oilstart |   .9836028   .0128461    -1.27   0.206     .9587444    1.009106
   youthstartap |   .9760411   .0352654    -0.67   0.502     .9093128    1.047666
  muslimajstart |   .8743121   .2447063    -0.48   0.631     .5051594    1.513228
 foreignfighter |   1.864233   .5345292     2.17   0.030     1.062763    3.270123
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store main

. 
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       17.78
Log likelihood  =   -373.60532                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0378

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   1.287874   .4860726     0.67   0.503     .6146255    2.698584
       1.govmilsupport |   1.786208   .6933239     1.49   0.135     .8347086    3.822341
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   1.186422   .7791096     0.26   0.795     .3275403    4.297476
                       |
             territory |   .6861377   .2448466    -1.06   0.291     .3409275    1.380894
           strongstart |   .9614379   .3436345    -0.11   0.912     .4771854    1.937115
              oilstart |   .9835009   .0128343    -1.27   0.202     .9586651     1.00898
          youthstartap |   .9765657   .0353037    -0.66   0.512     .9097662     1.04827
         muslimajstart |    .868161    .244849    -0.50   0.616     .4994987     1.50892
        foreignfighter |   1.861616   .5322712     2.17   0.030     1.062956    3.260354
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. estimates store inter

. 
. lrtest main

Likelihood-ratio test                                 LR chi2(1)  =      0.07
(Assumption: main nested in inter)                    Prob > chi2 =    0.7948

. 
. *wald*
. stcox i.islamist##i.govmilsupport $X1 foreignfighter, strata(order) nolog 

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects =          306                  Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures =           71
Time at risk    =  6459.957031
                                                LR chi2(9)       =       17.78
Log likelihood  =   -373.60532                  Prob > chi2      =      0.0378

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            1.islamist |   1.287874   .4860726     0.67   0.503     .6146255    2.698584
       1.govmilsupport |   1.786208   .6933239     1.49   0.135     .8347086    3.822341
                       |
islamist#govmilsupport |
                  1 1  |   1.186422   .7791096     0.26   0.795     .3275403    4.297476
                       |
             territory |   .6861377   .2448466    -1.06   0.291     .3409275    1.380894
           strongstart |   .9614379   .3436345    -0.11   0.912     .4771854    1.937115
              oilstart |   .9835009   .0128343    -1.27   0.202     .9586651     1.00898
          youthstartap |   .9765657   .0353037    -0.66   0.512     .9097662     1.04827
         muslimajstart |    .868161    .244849    -0.50   0.616     .4994987     1.50892
        foreignfighter |   1.861616   .5322712     2.17   0.030     1.062956    3.260354
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. test 1.islamist#0.govmilsupport=1.islamist#1.govmilsupport

 ( 1)  1o.islamist#0b.govmilsupport - 1.islamist#1.govmilsupport = 0

           chi2(  1) =    0.07
         Prob > chi2 =    0.7946

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A7d - Govmilsupport absent
. ************************************************
. 
. 
. **Model 2 and 3, when Govmil support is 1*
. gen govmilsupport0=.
(6,927 missing values generated)

. recode govmilsupport0 .=1 if govmilsupport==0
(govmilsupport0: 6089 changes made)

. recode govmilsupport0 .=0 if govmilsupport==1
(govmilsupport0: 838 changes made)

. tab govmilsupport0 govmilsupport

govmilsupp |  Government support
      ort0 |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |         0        838 |       838 
         1 |     6,089          0 |     6,089 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     6,089        838 |     6,927 

. 
. gen islamistgovmil0=islamist*govmilsupport0

. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil0 foreignfighter govmilsupport0 strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strat
> a(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(10)    =       68.44
Log pseudolikelihood =   -635.75033             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   2.863302   1.769107     1.70   0.089      .852997    9.611402
      territory |   2.572903   .5739206     4.24   0.000     1.661696     3.98378
    strongstart |   .5384992   .2596056    -1.28   0.199     .2093286    1.385293
       oilstart |    1.02197   .0103164     2.15   0.031     1.001949    1.042391
   youthstartap |   1.048489   .0200885     2.47   0.013     1.009846     1.08861
  muslimajstart |   .7650808   .1640219    -1.25   0.212     .5025999    1.164641
islamistgovmil0 |   .4878607     .27653    -1.27   0.205     .1606262    1.481751
 foreignfighter |   1.838471   .4250221     2.63   0.008     1.168622    2.892275
 govmilsupport0 |   1.739548    .748026     1.29   0.198     .7488754     4.04076
   strongstartt |   1.080431   .0628947     1.33   0.184     .9639322     1.21101
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7d-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A7d-recur.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       2.863              
                                                           (1.769)+            
                       Territory                            2.573              
                                                          (0.574)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.538              
                                                           (0.260)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.765              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistgovmil0                      0.488              
                                                           (0.277)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.838              
                                                          (0.425)**            
                       govmilsupport0                       1.740              
                                                           (0.748)             
                       strongstartt                         1.080              
                                                           (0.063)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 islamistgovmil0 foreignfighter govmilsupport0, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolo
> g

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       29.41
Log pseudolikelihood =   -373.60532             Prob > chi2      =      0.0006

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
             _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       islamist |   1.527961   .6415375     1.01   0.313     .6709999    3.479382
      territory |   .6861377   .1856664    -1.39   0.164      .403719     1.16612
    strongstart |   .9614379   .2699842    -0.14   0.889     .5544889    1.667054
       oilstart |   .9835009   .0106182    -1.54   0.123     .9629083    1.004534
   youthstartap |   .9765657   .0298095    -0.78   0.437     .9198535    1.036774
  muslimajstart |    .868161   .2123259    -0.58   0.563      .537554    1.402098
islamistgovmil0 |   .8428707   .4087276    -0.35   0.724     .3258318    2.180361
 foreignfighter |   1.861616   .4419098     2.62   0.009     1.169047    2.964477
 govmilsupport0 |   .5598451   .1741345    -1.87   0.062     .3043055    1.029973
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A7d-recur.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust st
> andard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) append

                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       2.863              
                                                           (1.769)+            
                       Territory                            2.573              
                                                          (0.574)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.538              
                                                           (0.260)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.010)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.048              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.765              
                                                           (0.164)             
                       islamistgovmil0                      0.488              
                                                           (0.277)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.838              
                                                          (0.425)**            
                       govmilsupport0                       1.740              
                                                           (0.748)             
                       strongstartt                         1.080              
                                                           (0.063)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                       Islamist claim                       1.528              
                                                           (0.642)             
                       Territory                            0.686              
                                                           (0.186)             
                       Strong rebels                        0.961              
                                                           (0.270)             
                       Oil                                  0.984              
                                                           (0.011)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.977              
                                                           (0.030)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.868              
                                                           (0.212)             
                       islamistgovmil0                      0.843              
                                                           (0.409)             
                       Foreign fighters                     1.862              
                                                          (0.442)**            
                       govmilsupport0                       0.560              
                                                           (0.174)+            
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A8
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1, see do-file on termination//
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. 
. *violations, secsup_govgov interacted with log of time
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebext, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sc
> h*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -589.21067
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -570.76655
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -570.47513
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -570.47498
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -570.47498

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          273             Number of obs    =       5,593
No. of failures      =          138
Time at risk         =  5851.317383
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       45.28
Log pseudolikelihood =   -570.47498             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 273 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .4812024   .1764488     2.73   0.006     .1353691    .8270357
    territory |   .8351932   .2438968     3.42   0.001     .3571643    1.313222
  strongstart |   -.235402   .3453769    -0.68   0.496    -.9123282    .4415243
     oilstart |   .0209512    .011218     1.87   0.062    -.0010356    .0429381
 youthstartap |   .0533236   .0212044     2.51   0.012     .0117637    .0948836
muslimajstart |  -.2059929   .2158701    -0.95   0.340    -.6290905    .2171048
secsup_govgov |   .1890192   .4639951     0.41   0.684    -.7203945    1.098433
       rebext |   .4531913   .2293761     1.98   0.048     .0036223    .9027602
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.11618         1.92        1         0.1661
      territory   |     -0.03762         0.28        1         0.5985
      strongstart |      0.15161         5.44        1         0.0197
      oilstart    |      0.00066         0.00        1         0.9932
      youthstartap|     -0.18522         3.62        1         0.0571
      muslimajst~t|      0.00138         0.00        1         0.9848
      secsup_gov~v|      0.18519         9.96        1         0.0016
      rebext      |      0.03425         0.18        1         0.6681
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                     12.68        8         0.1234
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. gen secsup_govgovt=secsup_govgov*ln(_t)
(391 missing values generated)

. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebext secsup_govgovt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*
> ) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -589.21067
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -568.40865
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -568.00327
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -568.00133
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -568.00133
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -568.00133

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          273             Number of obs    =       5,593
No. of failures      =          138
Time at risk         =  5851.317383
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       54.68
Log pseudolikelihood =   -568.00133             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 273 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .4686062   .1769522     2.65   0.008     .1217863    .8154261
     territory |   .8543711   .2419889     3.53   0.000     .3800816    1.328661
   strongstart |  -.2276381    .351141    -0.65   0.517    -.9158618    .4605855
      oilstart |   .0221782   .0114262     1.94   0.052    -.0002167     .044573
  youthstartap |   .0564691   .0211947     2.66   0.008     .0149283    .0980099
 muslimajstart |  -.2195657   .2164758    -1.01   0.310    -.6438505    .2047191
 secsup_govgov |  -2.338442   .8623316    -2.71   0.007    -4.028581   -.6483034
        rebext |    .472886   .2364672     2.00   0.046     .0094187    .9363532
secsup_govgovt |   1.334391   .4391243     3.04   0.002     .4737234    2.195059
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.05894         0.44        1         0.5056
      territory   |     -0.00880         0.01        1         0.9044
      strongstart |      0.04918         0.50        1         0.4788
      oilstart    |      0.02140         0.08        1         0.7805
      youthstartap|     -0.12458         1.41        1         0.2353
      muslimajst~t|     -0.00984         0.02        1         0.8912
      secsup_gov~v|      0.06573         0.20        1         0.6511
      rebext      |     -0.00610         0.01        1         0.9383
      secsup_gov~t|     -0.02031         0.05        1         0.8243
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      2.10        9         0.9897
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebext secsup_govgovt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          273             Number of obs    =       5,593
No. of failures      =          138
Time at risk         =  5851.317383
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       54.68
Log pseudolikelihood =   -568.00133             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 273 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.597766   .2827281     2.65   0.008     1.129513    2.260139
     territory |   2.349896   .5686487     3.53   0.000     1.462404    3.775982
   strongstart |   .7964124    .279653    -0.65   0.517     .4001716    1.585002
      oilstart |   1.022426   .0116824     1.94   0.052     .9997834    1.045581
  youthstartap |   1.058094    .022426     2.66   0.008      1.01504    1.102974
 muslimajstart |   .8028674   .1738014    -1.01   0.310      .525266     1.22718
 secsup_govgov |   .0964778   .0831959    -2.71   0.007     .0177996    .5229322
        rebext |   1.604618   .3794397     2.00   0.046     1.009463    2.550663
secsup_govgovt |   3.797683   1.667655     3.04   0.002     1.605963    8.980532
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A8b, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard err
> ors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A8b.doc not found)
                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   analysis time when record ends 
                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                    Islamist claim                             1.598              
                                                             (0.283)**            
                    Territory                                  2.350              
                                                             (0.569)**            
                    Strong rebels                              0.796              
                                                              (0.280)             
                    Oil                                        1.022              
                                                              (0.012)+            
                    Youth bulge/adult pop.                     1.058              
                                                             (0.022)**            
                    Muslim majority                            0.803              
                                                              (0.174)             
                    Government secondary support               0.096              
                                                             (0.083)**            
                    Rebel support                              1.605              
                                                              (0.379)*            
                    secsup_govgovt                             3.798              
                                                             (1.668)**            
                    N                                          5,593              
                   ----------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *Model 3*
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebext, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          273             Number of obs    =       5,593
No. of failures      =           68
Time at risk         =  5851.317383
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -350.57031             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 273 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.373215   .3967947     1.10   0.272     .7794375    2.419334
    territory |   .5744914   .1637561    -1.94   0.052     .3285886    1.004418
  strongstart |   .9645715   .2742288    -0.13   0.899     .5525058    1.683961
     oilstart |   .9839836   .0117604    -1.35   0.177     .9612015    1.007306
 youthstartap |   .9989675   .0324322    -0.03   0.975     .9373817    1.064599
muslimajstart |   1.003771   .2410124     0.02   0.987     .6269822    1.606993
secsup_govgov |   1.774011    .594171     1.71   0.087     .9201584    3.420188
       rebext |   1.471085   .4772002     1.19   0.234      .778968    2.778153
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A8b, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard err
> ors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Islamist claim                             1.598                           1.373              
                                             (0.283)**                        (0.397)             
    Territory                                  2.350                           0.574              
                                             (0.569)**                        (0.164)+            
    Strong rebels                              0.796                           0.965              
                                              (0.280)                         (0.274)             
    Oil                                        1.022                           0.984              
                                              (0.012)+                        (0.012)             
    Youth bulge/adult pop.                     1.058                           0.999              
                                             (0.022)**                        (0.032)             
    Muslim majority                            0.803                           1.004              
                                              (0.174)                         (0.241)             
    Government secondary support               0.096                           1.774              
                                             (0.083)**                        (0.594)+            
    Rebel support                              1.605                           1.471              
                                              (0.379)*                        (0.477)             
    secsup_govgovt                             3.798                                              
                                             (1.668)**                                            
    N                                          5,593                           5,593              
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 secsup_govgov rebext, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sc
> h*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.47629
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -352.34222
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -350.61698
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -350.57038
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -350.57031
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -350.57031

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          273             Number of obs    =       5,593
No. of failures      =           68
Time at risk         =  5851.317383
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       31.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -350.57031             Prob > chi2      =      0.0001

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 273 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .3171548   .2889531     1.10   0.272    -.2491828    .8834924
    territory |  -.5542701   .2850454    -1.94   0.052    -1.112949    .0044086
  strongstart |  -.0360713   .2843011    -0.13   0.899    -.5932913    .5211486
     oilstart |   -.016146   .0119518    -1.35   0.177    -.0395712    .0072792
 youthstartap |   -.001033   .0324657    -0.03   0.975    -.0646647    .0625986
muslimajstart |   .0037638   .2401069     0.02   0.987    -.4668372    .4743648
secsup_govgov |    .573243   .3349309     1.71   0.087    -.0832095    1.229695
       rebext |   .3860004   .3243865     1.19   0.234    -.2497854    1.021786
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.06352         0.19        1         0.6621
      territory   |      0.11291         0.53        1         0.4685
      strongstart |      0.27866         3.79        1         0.0517
      oilstart    |      0.10638         0.56        1         0.4563
      youthstartap|     -0.14782         1.04        1         0.3073
      muslimajst~t|     -0.01810         0.02        1         0.8999
      secsup_gov~v|      0.03822         0.06        1         0.8118
      rebext      |     -0.22249         2.61        1         0.1061
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.65        8         0.4689
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A9
. ************************************************
. 
. *gdp, population and anocracy*
. 
. //See do-file on termination//
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A10
. ************************************************
. 
. *gdp, population and anocracy*
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          289             Number of obs    =       5,757
No. of failures      =          131
Time at risk         =  5981.127197
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       53.48
Log pseudolikelihood =   -547.80268             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 289 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.804141   .4084737     2.61   0.009      1.15758    2.811837
    territory |   2.557022   .6290319     3.82   0.000     1.578838    4.141251
  strongstart |   1.012768   .3724869     0.03   0.972     .4925444    2.082448
     oilstart |   1.008111   .0123806     0.66   0.511      .984135    1.032671
 youthstartap |   1.055806   .0288122     1.99   0.047     1.000819    1.113815
muslimajstart |   .9110598   .2186557    -0.39   0.698       .56919    1.458265
 lngdppcstart |    1.09469   .0883881     1.12   0.263     .9344649    1.282388
   lnpopstart |   1.068674   .0745186     0.95   0.341     .9321609    1.225179
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A10, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard err
> ors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A10.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.804              
                                                          (0.408)**            
                       Territory                            2.557              
                                                          (0.629)**            
                       Strong rebels                        1.013              
                                                           (0.372)             
                       Oil                                  1.008              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.056              
                                                           (0.029)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.911              
                                                           (0.219)             
                       GDP per capita                       1.095              
                                                           (0.088)             
                       Population                           1.069              
                                                           (0.075)             
                       N                                    5,757              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -566.59354
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -548.10363
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -547.80285
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -547.80268
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -547.80268

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          289             Number of obs    =       5,757
No. of failures      =          131
Time at risk         =  5981.127197
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       53.48
Log pseudolikelihood =   -547.80268             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 289 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5900848   .2264089     2.61   0.009     .1463314    1.033838
    territory |   .9388434   .2460017     3.82   0.000     .4566889    1.420998
  strongstart |   .0126868   .3677911     0.03   0.972    -.7081706    .7335442
     oilstart |   .0080782    .012281     0.66   0.511    -.0159922    .0321485
 youthstartap |   .0543049   .0272893     1.99   0.047     .0008189     .107791
muslimajstart |  -.0931467   .2400015    -0.39   0.698     -.563541    .3772475
 lngdppcstart |   .0904713   .0807425     1.12   0.263    -.0677812    .2487237
   lnpopstart |   .0664184     .06973     0.95   0.341    -.0702499    .2030866
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.07372         1.28        1         0.2570
      territory   |     -0.04120         0.36        1         0.5509
      strongstart |      0.10680         2.28        1         0.1313
      oilstart    |      0.00254         0.00        1         0.9728
      youthstartap|     -0.06048         0.57        1         0.4496
      muslimajst~t|      0.05493         0.68        1         0.4086
      lngdppcstart|      0.02596         0.10        1         0.7564
      lnpopstart  |      0.01465         0.03        1         0.8542
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.36        8         0.7180
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          292             Number of obs    =       5,905
No. of failures      =          141
Time at risk         =  6166.097168
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       49.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -597.26302             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 292 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |    1.64497   .3388623     2.42   0.016     1.098529    2.463229
    territory |   2.425544   .5685765     3.78   0.000     1.532066    3.840087
  strongstart |   .6531211   .2324863    -1.20   0.231     .3250861    1.312167
     oilstart |   1.020908   .0112586     1.88   0.061      .999078    1.043214
 youthstartap |   1.045074   .0189799     2.43   0.015     1.008529    1.082944
muslimajstart |   .8520878   .1754935    -0.78   0.437     .5690801    1.275837
     anostart |   1.111558   .2210414     0.53   0.595     .7527739    1.641345
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A10, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard err
> ors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.804                           1.645              
                                          (0.408)**                        (0.339)*            
       Territory                            2.557                           2.426              
                                          (0.629)**                       (0.569)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.013                           0.653              
                                           (0.372)                         (0.232)             
       Oil                                  1.008                           1.021              
                                           (0.012)                         (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.056                           1.045              
                                           (0.029)*                        (0.019)*            
       Muslim majority                      0.911                           0.852              
                                           (0.219)                         (0.175)             
       GDP per capita                       1.095                                              
                                           (0.088)                                             
       Population                           1.069                                              
                                           (0.075)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.112              
                                                                           (0.221)             
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -616.56144
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -597.65957
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -597.26373
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -597.26302
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -597.26302
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -597.26302

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          292             Number of obs    =       5,905
No. of failures      =          141
Time at risk         =  6166.097168
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       49.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -597.26302             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 292 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .4977223    .205999     2.42   0.016     .0939716     .901473
    territory |    .886056   .2344119     3.78   0.000     .4266171    1.345495
  strongstart |  -.4259927   .3559619    -1.20   0.231    -1.123665    .2716799
     oilstart |   .0206922    .011028     1.88   0.061    -.0009224    .0423067
 youthstartap |   .0440881   .0181613     2.43   0.015     .0084927    .0796835
muslimajstart |  -.1600657    .205957    -0.78   0.437    -.5637341    .2436026
     anostart |   .1057627   .1988572     0.53   0.595    -.2839903    .4955158
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.05205         0.39        1         0.5316
      territory   |     -0.02481         0.14        1         0.7062
      strongstart |      0.03855         0.14        1         0.7096
      oilstart    |      0.01410         0.03        1         0.8541
      youthstartap|     -0.08628         0.62        1         0.4324
      muslimajst~t|      0.00950         0.02        1         0.8946
      anostart    |     -0.07205         0.99        1         0.3186
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      2.18        7         0.9490
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       56.03
Log pseudolikelihood =    -640.1348             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.697784   .3655942     2.46   0.014     1.113238    2.589267
    territory |   2.193069   .5370138     3.21   0.001     1.357125    3.543928
  strongstart |   .9410426   .3421288    -0.17   0.867     .4614699    1.919001
     oilstart |     1.0134   .0122997     1.10   0.273     .9895773    1.037796
 youthstartap |   1.042604   .0257994     1.69   0.092     .9932446    1.094416
muslimajstart |   .8972097     .18322    -0.53   0.595     .6012697    1.338809
      lngdppc |   1.034632   .0801994     0.44   0.661     .8888017    1.204389
        lnpop |   1.063487    .071554     0.91   0.360     .9320974    1.213398
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A10.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.804                           1.645              
                                          (0.408)**                        (0.339)*            
       Territory                            2.557                           2.426              
                                          (0.629)**                       (0.569)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.013                           0.653              
                                           (0.372)                         (0.232)             
       Oil                                  1.008                           1.021              
                                           (0.012)                         (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.056                           1.045              
                                           (0.029)*                        (0.019)*            
       Muslim majority                      0.911                           0.852              
                                           (0.219)                         (0.175)             
       GDP per capita                       1.095                                              
                                           (0.088)                                             
       Population                           1.069                                              
                                           (0.075)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.112              
                                                                           (0.221)             
       GDP pc over time                                                                        
                                                                                               
       Population over time                                                                    
                                                                                               
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.698              
                                                           (0.366)*            
                       Territory                            2.193              
                                                          (0.537)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.941              
                                                           (0.342)             
                       Oil                                  1.013              
                                                           (0.012)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.043              
                                                           (0.026)+            
                       Muslim majority                      0.897              
                                                           (0.183)             
                       GDP per capita                                          
                                                                               
                       Population                                              
                                                                               
                       Anocracy                                                
                                                                               
                       GDP pc over time                     1.035              
                                                           (0.080)             
                       Population over time                 1.063              
                                                           (0.072)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) noh
> r

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.38166
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood =  -640.1349
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood =  -640.1348
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood =  -640.1348

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       56.03
Log pseudolikelihood =    -640.1348             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5293237   .2153361     2.46   0.014     .1072727    .9513748
    territory |    .785302   .2448686     3.21   0.001     .3053683    1.265236
  strongstart |  -.0607669   .3635636    -0.17   0.867    -.7733384    .6518046
     oilstart |   .0133107    .012137     1.10   0.273    -.0104774    .0370989
 youthstartap |   .0417213   .0247452     1.69   0.092    -.0067784     .090221
muslimajstart |  -.1084656   .2042109    -0.53   0.595    -.5087116    .2917804
      lngdppc |   .0340454    .077515     0.44   0.661    -.1178812     .185972
        lnpop |   .0615532   .0672824     0.91   0.360     -.070318    .1934243
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.09791         2.34        1         0.1261
      territory   |      0.00778         0.02        1         0.8973
      strongstart |      0.09848         2.35        1         0.1250
      oilstart    |      0.02808         0.18        1         0.6696
      youthstartap|     -0.07205         0.98        1         0.3232
      muslimajst~t|      0.05734         0.66        1         0.4177
      lngdppc     |     -0.03447         0.25        1         0.6157
      lnpop       |     -0.03462         0.31        1         0.5749
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.74        8         0.6759
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 4*
. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          298             Number of obs    =       6,023
No. of failures      =          147
Time at risk         =  6288.047119
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       45.27
Log pseudolikelihood =   -626.73597             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 298 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |    1.76813   .3622186     2.78   0.005     1.183416    2.641746
    territory |   2.310646   .5332216     3.63   0.000     1.469955    3.632143
  strongstart |   .8603651   .3058733    -0.42   0.672      .428615    1.727024
     oilstart |   1.017263   .0101528     1.71   0.086     .9975573    1.037358
 youthstartap |    1.04022   .0188827     2.17   0.030     1.003861    1.077896
muslimajstart |   .8845161   .1784654    -0.61   0.543     .5956102    1.313558
     anocracy |   1.079889    .209521     0.40   0.692     .7382922    1.579538
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A10.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.804                           1.645              
                                          (0.408)**                        (0.339)*            
       Territory                            2.557                           2.426              
                                          (0.629)**                       (0.569)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.013                           0.653              
                                           (0.372)                         (0.232)             
       Oil                                  1.008                           1.021              
                                           (0.012)                         (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.056                           1.045              
                                           (0.029)*                        (0.019)*            
       Muslim majority                      0.911                           0.852              
                                           (0.219)                         (0.175)             
       GDP per capita                       1.095                                              
                                           (0.088)                                             
       Population                           1.069                                              
                                           (0.075)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.112              
                                                                           (0.221)             
       GDP pc over time                                                                        
                                                                                               
       Population over time                                                                    
                                                                                               
       Anocracy over time                                                                      
                                                                                               
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.698                           1.768              
                                           (0.366)*                       (0.362)**            
       Territory                            2.193                           2.311              
                                          (0.537)**                       (0.533)**            
       Strong rebels                        0.941                           0.860              
                                           (0.342)                         (0.306)             
       Oil                                  1.013                           1.017              
                                           (0.012)                         (0.010)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.043                           1.040              
                                           (0.026)+                        (0.019)*            
       Muslim majority                      0.897                           0.885              
                                           (0.183)                         (0.178)             
       GDP per capita                                                                          
                                                                                               
       Population                                                                              
                                                                                               
       Anocracy                                                                                
                                                                                               
       GDP pc over time                     1.035                                              
                                           (0.080)                                             
       Population over time                 1.063                                              
                                           (0.072)                                             
       Anocracy over time                                                   1.080              
                                                                           (0.210)             
       N                                    6,194                           6,023              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -643.76036
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -627.0049
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -626.73619
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -626.73597
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -626.73597

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          298             Number of obs    =       6,023
No. of failures      =          147
Time at risk         =  6288.047119
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       45.27
Log pseudolikelihood =   -626.73597             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 298 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5699226   .2048597     2.78   0.005      .168405    .9714402
    territory |   .8375273   .2307673     3.63   0.000     .3852317    1.289823
  strongstart |  -.1503984   .3555156    -0.42   0.672    -.8471963    .5463994
     oilstart |   .0171157   .0099805     1.71   0.086    -.0024457     .036677
 youthstartap |   .0394324   .0181526     2.17   0.030     .0038539    .0750108
muslimajstart |  -.1227145   .2017661    -0.61   0.543    -.5181688    .2727398
     anocracy |   .0768583   .1940208     0.40   0.692    -.3034156    .4571321
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.13012         3.51        1         0.0609
      territory   |     -0.00163         0.00        1         0.9805
      strongstart |      0.12779         3.27        1         0.0705
      oilstart    |      0.00629         0.01        1         0.9350
      youthstartap|     -0.12427         1.47        1         0.2246
      muslimajst~t|      0.06237         0.75        1         0.3857
      anocracy    |      0.08826         1.40        1         0.2364
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.41        7         0.3871
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A11
. ************************************************
. 
. *gdp, population and anocracy*
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          289             Number of obs    =       5,757
No. of failures      =           66
Time at risk         =  5981.127197
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       15.56
Log pseudolikelihood =   -343.60977             Prob > chi2      =      0.0491

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 289 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |    1.68061   .4241693     2.06   0.040     1.024783    2.756143
    territory |   .5131314   .1673098    -2.05   0.041     .2708251    .9722284
  strongstart |   1.102372   .3179024     0.34   0.735     .6264098    1.939983
     oilstart |   .9735325   .0158629    -1.65   0.100      .942933    1.005125
 youthstartap |   .9991501   .0333967    -0.03   0.980     .9357918    1.066798
muslimajstart |   1.014429   .2488696     0.06   0.953     .6271867    1.640766
 lngdppcstart |   1.101548    .134672     0.79   0.429     .8668382    1.399809
   lnpopstart |   1.073075   .1245566     0.61   0.543     .8547266    1.347202
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A11.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A11.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.681              
                                                           (0.424)*            
                       Territory                            0.513              
                                                           (0.167)*            
                       Strong rebels                        1.102              
                                                           (0.318)             
                       Oil                                  0.974              
                                                           (0.016)+            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.999              
                                                           (0.033)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.014              
                                                           (0.249)             
                       GDP per capita                       1.102              
                                                           (0.135)             
                       Population                           1.073              
                                                           (0.125)             
                       N                                    5,757              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppcstart lnpopstart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -349.88933
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -343.76491
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -343.60982
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -343.60977
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -343.60977

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          289             Number of obs    =       5,757
No. of failures      =           66
Time at risk         =  5981.127197
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       15.56
Log pseudolikelihood =   -343.60977             Prob > chi2      =      0.0491

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 289 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5191568   .2523901     2.06   0.040     .0244813    1.013832
    territory |  -.6672234   .3260564    -2.05   0.041    -1.306282   -.0281646
  strongstart |   .0974644   .2883803     0.34   0.735    -.4677506    .6626794
     oilstart |  -.0268241   .0162942    -1.65   0.100    -.0587601    .0051118
 youthstartap |  -.0008503   .0334251    -0.03   0.980    -.0663623    .0646617
muslimajstart |   .0143262   .2453297     0.06   0.953    -.4665111    .4951635
 lngdppcstart |   .0967165   .1222571     0.79   0.429     -.142903    .3363359
   lnpopstart |   .0705281   .1160745     0.61   0.543    -.1569736    .2980299
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.20429         2.04        1         0.1534
      territory   |     -0.03802         0.13        1         0.7230
      strongstart |      0.23212         3.13        1         0.0770
      oilstart    |      0.07418         0.34        1         0.5588
      youthstartap|     -0.13488         0.66        1         0.4149
      muslimajst~t|      0.09739         0.47        1         0.4919
      lngdppcstart|     -0.09449         0.66        1         0.4151
      lnpopstart  |      0.15384         2.05        1         0.1525
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      9.33        8         0.3149
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          292             Number of obs    =       5,905
No. of failures      =           64
Time at risk         =  6166.097168
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       13.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -334.56478             Prob > chi2      =      0.0519

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 292 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.355768     .40341     1.02   0.306     .7566758    2.429189
    territory |   .5776148   .1540847    -2.06   0.040     .3424297     .974328
  strongstart |   .9370561   .2922233    -0.21   0.835     .5085296    1.726692
     oilstart |   .9863434   .0117855    -1.15   0.250     .9635126    1.009715
 youthstartap |   .9772629   .0285087    -0.79   0.430     .9229543    1.034767
muslimajstart |    .908718   .2183104    -0.40   0.690     .5674615    1.455197
     anostart |   1.601992   .3753365     2.01   0.044     1.012114    2.535662
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A11.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.681                           1.356              
                                           (0.424)*                        (0.403)             
       Territory                            0.513                           0.578              
                                           (0.167)*                        (0.154)*            
       Strong rebels                        1.102                           0.937              
                                           (0.318)                         (0.292)             
       Oil                                  0.974                           0.986              
                                           (0.016)+                        (0.012)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.999                           0.977              
                                           (0.033)                         (0.029)             
       Muslim majority                      1.014                           0.909              
                                           (0.249)                         (0.218)             
       GDP per capita                       1.102                                              
                                           (0.135)                                             
       Population                           1.073                                              
                                           (0.125)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.602              
                                                                           (0.375)*            
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anostart, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -339.59611
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -334.60622
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -334.56478
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -334.56478
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -334.56478

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          292             Number of obs    =       5,905
No. of failures      =           64
Time at risk         =  6166.097168
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       13.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -334.56478             Prob > chi2      =      0.0519

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 292 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .3043684   .2975508     1.02   0.306    -.2788204    .8875573
    territory |   -.548848   .2667604    -2.06   0.040    -1.071689   -.0260073
  strongstart |  -.0650121   .3118525    -0.21   0.835    -.6762318    .5462076
     oilstart |  -.0137507   .0119487    -1.15   0.250    -.0371697    .0096684
 youthstartap |  -.0229996    .029172    -0.79   0.430    -.0801755    .0341764
muslimajstart |  -.0957205     .24024    -0.40   0.690    -.5665823    .3751413
     anostart |   .4712478   .2342936     2.01   0.044     .0120408    .9304549
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.10776         0.57        1         0.4507
      territory   |      0.04971         0.09        1         0.7585
      strongstart |      0.22754         2.36        1         0.1245
      oilstart    |      0.08203         0.42        1         0.5160
      youthstartap|     -0.04236         0.09        1         0.7653
      muslimajst~t|      0.01091         0.01        1         0.9414
      anostart    |     -0.13221         1.17        1         0.2791
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.68        7         0.5772
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       14.60
Log pseudolikelihood =   -376.88833             Prob > chi2      =      0.0675

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.704691    .415647     2.19   0.029     1.057063    2.749098
    territory |   .5755202   .1724576    -1.84   0.065     .3198849    1.035446
  strongstart |   1.062357   .3053347     0.21   0.833     .6048173     1.86602
     oilstart |   .9776947   .0148199    -1.49   0.137     .9490756    1.007177
 youthstartap |   .9854479   .0293578    -0.49   0.623     .9295553    1.044701
muslimajstart |   .9970957   .2329344    -0.01   0.990     .6307906    1.576117
      lngdppc |   1.067491   .1186851     0.59   0.557     .8584726    1.327401
        lnpop |   1.005153   .1069916     0.05   0.961     .8158825    1.238331
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A11.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.681                           1.356              
                                           (0.424)*                        (0.403)             
       Territory                            0.513                           0.578              
                                           (0.167)*                        (0.154)*            
       Strong rebels                        1.102                           0.937              
                                           (0.318)                         (0.292)             
       Oil                                  0.974                           0.986              
                                           (0.016)+                        (0.012)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.999                           0.977              
                                           (0.033)                         (0.029)             
       Muslim majority                      1.014                           0.909              
                                           (0.249)                         (0.218)             
       GDP per capita                       1.102                                              
                                           (0.135)                                             
       Population                           1.073                                              
                                           (0.125)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.602              
                                                                           (0.375)*            
       GDP pc over time                                                                        
                                                                                               
       Population over time                                                                    
                                                                                               
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.705              
                                                           (0.416)*            
                       Territory                            0.576              
                                                           (0.172)+            
                       Strong rebels                        1.062              
                                                           (0.305)             
                       Oil                                  0.978              
                                                           (0.015)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.985              
                                                           (0.029)             
                       Muslim majority                      0.997              
                                                           (0.233)             
                       GDP per capita                                          
                                                                               
                       Population                                              
                                                                               
                       Anocracy                                                
                                                                               
                       GDP pc over time                     1.067              
                                                           (0.119)             
                       Population over time                 1.005              
                                                           (0.107)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 lngdppc lnpop, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) noh
> r

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.02463
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -376.88836
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -376.88833
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -376.88833

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       14.60
Log pseudolikelihood =   -376.88833             Prob > chi2      =      0.0675

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5333837   .2438255     2.19   0.029     .0554945    1.011273
    territory |  -.5524809   .2996551    -1.84   0.065    -1.139794    .0348322
  strongstart |   .0604896   .2874127     0.21   0.833    -.5028288    .6238081
     oilstart |  -.0225578    .015158    -1.49   0.137    -.0522669    .0071513
 youthstartap |   -.014659   .0297913    -0.49   0.623     -.073049    .0437309
muslimajstart |  -.0029085   .2336129    -0.01   0.990    -.4607814    .4549644
      lngdppc |    .065311   .1111814     0.59   0.557    -.1526005    .2832225
        lnpop |   .0051397   .1064431     0.05   0.961    -.2034849    .2137643
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.19232         1.78        1         0.1825
      territory   |     -0.06287         0.31        1         0.5785
      strongstart |      0.24009         3.47        1         0.0625
      oilstart    |      0.05317         0.19        1         0.6626
      youthstartap|     -0.11355         0.40        1         0.5255
      muslimajst~t|      0.07918         0.30        1         0.5845
      lngdppc     |     -0.06142         0.29        1         0.5919
      lnpop       |      0.19496         2.97        1         0.0848
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      8.98        8         0.3439
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 4*
. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          298             Number of obs    =       6,023
No. of failures      =           66
Time at risk         =  6288.047119
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       10.44
Log pseudolikelihood =   -348.11702             Prob > chi2      =      0.1650

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 298 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |    1.56683   .4242048     1.66   0.097     .9216516    2.663648
    territory |   .5883168   .1555641    -2.01   0.045     .3503762    .9878429
  strongstart |   1.129274   .3184671     0.43   0.666     .6497576    1.962669
     oilstart |    .984151   .0117723    -1.34   0.182     .9613461    1.007497
 youthstartap |   .9801767    .030071    -0.65   0.514     .9229757    1.040923
muslimajstart |    .919242   .2214609    -0.35   0.727     .5732723    1.474004
     anocracy |   1.121038   .2575841     0.50   0.619     .7145581    1.758747
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A11.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.681                           1.356              
                                           (0.424)*                        (0.403)             
       Territory                            0.513                           0.578              
                                           (0.167)*                        (0.154)*            
       Strong rebels                        1.102                           0.937              
                                           (0.318)                         (0.292)             
       Oil                                  0.974                           0.986              
                                           (0.016)+                        (0.012)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.999                           0.977              
                                           (0.033)                         (0.029)             
       Muslim majority                      1.014                           0.909              
                                           (0.249)                         (0.218)             
       GDP per capita                       1.102                                              
                                           (0.135)                                             
       Population                           1.073                                              
                                           (0.125)                                             
       Anocracy                                                             1.602              
                                                                           (0.375)*            
       GDP pc over time                                                                        
                                                                                               
       Population over time                                                                    
                                                                                               
       Anocracy over time                                                                      
                                                                                               
       N                                    5,757                           5,905              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.705                           1.567              
                                           (0.416)*                        (0.424)+            
       Territory                            0.576                           0.588              
                                           (0.172)+                        (0.156)*            
       Strong rebels                        1.062                           1.129              
                                           (0.305)                         (0.318)             
       Oil                                  0.978                           0.984              
                                           (0.015)                         (0.012)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.985                           0.980              
                                           (0.029)                         (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      0.997                           0.919              
                                           (0.233)                         (0.221)             
       GDP per capita                                                                          
                                                                                               
       Population                                                                              
                                                                                               
       Anocracy                                                                                
                                                                                               
       GDP pc over time                     1.067                                              
                                           (0.119)                                             
       Population over time                 1.005                                              
                                           (0.107)                                             
       Anocracy over time                                                   1.121              
                                                                           (0.258)             
       N                                    6,194                           6,023              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 anocracy, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -352.15092
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.16953
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.11703
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.11702
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -348.11702

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          298             Number of obs    =       6,023
No. of failures      =           66
Time at risk         =  6288.047119
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       10.44
Log pseudolikelihood =   -348.11702             Prob > chi2      =      0.1650

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 298 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .4490543   .2707408     1.66   0.097     -.081588    .9796966
    territory |  -.5304897   .2644223    -2.01   0.045    -1.048748   -.0122316
  strongstart |   .1215746   .2820106     0.43   0.666     -.431156    .6743052
     oilstart |  -.0159759   .0119619    -1.34   0.182    -.0394207    .0074689
 youthstartap |  -.0200224   .0306791    -0.65   0.514    -.0801523    .0401076
muslimajstart |  -.0842059   .2409169    -0.35   0.727    -.5563944    .3879826
     anocracy |   .1142554   .2297728     0.50   0.619    -.3360909    .5646017
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.15212         1.12        1         0.2905
      territory   |      0.07273         0.20        1         0.6546
      strongstart |      0.21913         2.12        1         0.1457
      oilstart    |      0.10127         0.65        1         0.4192
      youthstartap|     -0.05438         0.16        1         0.6895
      muslimajst~t|      0.04829         0.11        1         0.7443
      anocracy    |     -0.15273         1.47        1         0.2261
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      6.30        7         0.5049
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A12
. ************************************************
. 
. //Model 1-3 see do-file on termination//
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 4* leftist
. 
. *violations, leftist interacted with log of time
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.87355
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.82212
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.82211
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.82211

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       26.85
Log pseudolikelihood =   -642.82211             Prob > chi2      =      0.0002

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |    .286867   .1838375     1.56   0.119    -.0734478    .6471818
    territory |   .8800897   .2165759     4.06   0.000     .4556088    1.304571
  strongstart |  -.0804949   .3626109    -0.22   0.824    -.7911991    .6302094
     oilstart |   .0178746   .0100582     1.78   0.076     -.001839    .0375882
 youthstartap |   .0479731   .0197577     2.43   0.015     .0092487    .0866975
muslimajstart |  -.0475154   .1869238    -0.25   0.799    -.4138794    .3188486
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |     -0.19781         5.27        1         0.0217
      territory   |     -0.05223         0.49        1         0.4850
      strongstart |      0.09175         1.59        1         0.2072
      oilstart    |     -0.02101         0.08        1         0.7785
      youthstartap|     -0.09331         0.90        1         0.3436
      muslimajst~t|      0.08711         1.47        1         0.2246
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      8.14        6         0.2278
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist leftistt $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.28399
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.05681
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.05669
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.05669

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       53.86
Log pseudolikelihood =   -638.05669             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   1.618009   .4318536     3.75   0.000     .7715913    2.464426
     leftistt |  -.7598967    .219993    -3.45   0.001    -1.191075   -.3287182
    territory |   .9064046   .2106219     4.30   0.000     .4935932    1.319216
  strongstart |   -.039133   .3611585    -0.11   0.914    -.7469905    .6687246
     oilstart |    .018398   .0098471     1.87   0.062     -.000902    .0376979
 youthstartap |   .0494002   .0197607     2.50   0.012       .01067    .0881304
muslimajstart |   .0072661   .1853399     0.04   0.969    -.3559935    .3705257
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.10571         1.63        1         0.2021
      leftistt    |     -0.10690         1.58        1         0.2091
      territory   |     -0.07026         0.85        1         0.3566
      strongstart |      0.08812         1.45        1         0.2279
      oilstart    |     -0.00224         0.00        1         0.9766
      youthstartap|     -0.09848         0.99        1         0.3195
      muslimajst~t|      0.06090         0.68        1         0.4090
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.89        7         0.7928
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. stcox leftist leftistt $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       53.86
Log pseudolikelihood =   -638.05669             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   5.043039   2.177854     3.75   0.000     2.163206    11.75673
     leftistt |   .4677148    .102894    -3.45   0.001     .3038944    .7198458
    territory |   2.475406   .5213749     4.30   0.000     1.638192    3.740488
  strongstart |   .9616228   .3472982    -0.11   0.914     .4737903    1.951746
     oilstart |   1.018568   .0100299     1.87   0.062     .9990984    1.038417
 youthstartap |   1.050641   .0207614     2.50   0.012     1.010727    1.092131
muslimajstart |   1.007293   .1866915     0.04   0.969     .7004772    1.448496
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A12b.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Leftist                              5.043              
                                                          (2.178)**            
                       leftistt                             0.468              
                                                          (0.103)**            
                       Territory                            2.475              
                                                          (0.521)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.962              
                                                           (0.347)             
                       Oil                                  1.019              
                                                           (0.010)+            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.051              
                                                           (0.021)*            
                       Muslim majority                      1.007              
                                                           (0.187)             
                       N                                    6,193              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. *alternative survial models*
. 
. *Model 1* weibull instead of cox, without strata
. streg leftist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       43.40
Log pseudolikelihood =   -405.08214             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   1.432104   .3243292     1.59   0.113     .9187612    2.232269
    territory |   3.253509   .8294084     4.63   0.000     1.974047    5.362244
  strongstart |   .9514942   .3916708    -0.12   0.904     .4246387    2.132027
     oilstart |   1.035581   .0127231     2.85   0.004     1.010942     1.06082
 youthstartap |   1.065412   .0290944     2.32   0.020     1.009887     1.12399
muslimajstart |   .9179715   .2242901    -0.35   0.726     .5686607    1.481853
        _cons |   .0025451   .0024473    -6.21   0.000     .0003866    .0167572
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_p |  -.3214362   .0493308    -6.52   0.000    -.4181229   -.2247496
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            p |   .7251069   .0357701                      .6582814    .7987162
          1/p |   1.379107   .0680325                      1.252009    1.519107
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. //with strata does not converge//
. 
. *Model 2* exponential instead of cox, without and with strata
. streg leftist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       42.07
Log pseudolikelihood =   -414.85675             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   1.342635   .3052011     1.30   0.195     .8599376    2.096277
    territory |   3.149335    .813834     4.44   0.000     1.897824    5.226149
  strongstart |    .969132   .4002714    -0.08   0.939     .4313395    2.177442
     oilstart |   1.038366   .0129316     3.02   0.003     1.013328    1.064023
 youthstartap |   1.063908   .0291228     2.26   0.024     1.008333    1.122547
muslimajstart |   .8957401   .2211855    -0.45   0.656     .5520704    1.453348
        _cons |   .0011291   .0010753    -7.13   0.000     .0001746    .0073003
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. streg leftist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      461.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -404.93414             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   .1103613   .2332455     0.47   0.636    -.3467914     .567514
    territory |    .942085   .2617897     3.60   0.000     .4289866    1.455184
  strongstart |  -.0718265   .3852309    -0.19   0.852    -.8268651    .6832122
     oilstart |   .0340832   .0118095     2.89   0.004      .010937    .0572294
 youthstartap |   .0540332   .0230975     2.34   0.019      .008763    .0993034
muslimajstart |  -.1051766   .2210697    -0.48   0.634    -.5384652    .3281121
              |
        order |
           2  |   .7051399    .240169     2.94   0.003     .2344172    1.175863
           3  |   .5996638   .3819218     1.57   0.116    -.1488892    1.348217
           4  |   .8727024   .5530513     1.58   0.115    -.2112583    1.956663
           5  |   1.592619   .6116495     2.60   0.009     .3938081     2.79143
           6  |  -.1524048   .9184778    -0.17   0.868    -1.952588    1.647779
           7  |  -10.84556    1.15952    -9.35   0.000    -13.11818   -8.572946
              |
        _cons |  -6.577503   .8024661    -8.20   0.000    -8.150308   -5.004698
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.   
. *Model 5* muslim identity
. stcox islamist muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       44.43
Log pseudolikelihood =   -640.46434             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.826982     .45526     2.42   0.016     1.121052    2.977437
     muslimid |   .8988415   .2286526    -0.42   0.675     .5459457    1.479847
    territory |   2.343399   .5557865     3.59   0.000     1.472197    3.730153
  strongstart |   .9131417   .3278406    -0.25   0.800      .451789    1.845613
     oilstart |   1.018545   .0106581     1.76   0.079     .9978687    1.039651
 youthstartap |   1.041847   .0195171     2.19   0.029     1.004288    1.080811
muslimajstart |   .9331505   .2365003    -0.27   0.785     .5678332    1.533496
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Leftist                              5.043                                              
                                          (2.178)**                                            
       leftistt                             0.468                                              
                                          (0.103)**                                            
       Territory                            2.475                           2.343              
                                          (0.521)**                       (0.556)**            
       Strong rebels                        0.962                           0.913              
                                           (0.347)                         (0.328)             
       Oil                                  1.019                           1.019              
                                           (0.010)+                        (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.051                           1.042              
                                           (0.021)*                        (0.020)*            
       Muslim majority                      1.007                           0.933              
                                           (0.187)                         (0.237)             
       Islamist claim                                                       1.827              
                                                                           (0.455)*            
       Muslim identity                                                      0.899              
                                                                           (0.229)             
       N                                    6,193                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.64456
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.46443
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.46434
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -640.46434

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       44.43
Log pseudolikelihood =   -640.46434             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .6026654   .2491869     2.42   0.016      .114268    1.091063
     muslimid |  -.1066486   .2543859    -0.42   0.675    -.6052358    .3919386
    territory |   .8516024   .2371711     3.59   0.000     .3867556    1.316449
  strongstart |  -.0908642   .3590249    -0.25   0.800      -.79454    .6128116
     oilstart |   .0183756    .010464     1.76   0.079    -.0021335    .0388847
 youthstartap |   .0409949   .0187332     2.19   0.029     .0042786    .0777113
muslimajstart |  -.0691888   .2534428    -0.27   0.785    -.5659276    .4275501
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.09088         1.85        1         0.1742
      muslimid    |      0.00863         0.01        1         0.9151
      territory   |     -0.02356         0.11        1         0.7390
      strongstart |      0.12455         3.37        1         0.0665
      oilstart    |     -0.00353         0.00        1         0.9606
      youthstartap|     -0.11318         1.35        1         0.2457
      muslimajst~t|      0.04133         0.30        1         0.5864
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.89        7         0.5525
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 6* nonislamist
. stcox nonislamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       31.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -642.65428             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |   1.516187     .46094     1.37   0.171      .835558    2.751242
     territory |   2.268323   .4752281     3.91   0.000     1.504433    3.420087
   strongstart |   .9053516    .328895    -0.27   0.784     .4442156    1.845188
      oilstart |   1.020049   .0100274     2.02   0.043     1.000584    1.039893
  youthstartap |   1.044097   .0208791     2.16   0.031     1.003966    1.085832
 muslimajstart |   .9585687   .1819614    -0.22   0.824     .6607588    1.390604
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A12b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Leftist                                     5.043                                              
                                             (2.178)**                                            
   leftistt                                    0.468                                              
                                             (0.103)**                                            
   Territory                                   2.475                           2.343              
                                             (0.521)**                       (0.556)**            
   Strong rebels                               0.962                           0.913              
                                              (0.347)                         (0.328)             
   Oil                                         1.019                           1.019              
                                              (0.010)+                        (0.011)+            
   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      1.051                           1.042              
                                              (0.021)*                        (0.020)*            
   Muslim majority                             1.007                           0.933              
                                              (0.187)                         (0.237)             
   Islamist claim                                                              1.827              
                                                                              (0.455)*            
   Muslim identity                                                             0.899              
                                                                              (0.229)             
   Non-Islamist religious claims                                                                  
                                                                                                  
   N                                           6,193                           6,194              
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   analysis time when record ends 
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                   Leftist                                                        
                                                                                  
                   leftistt                                                       
                                                                                  
                   Territory                                   2.268              
                                                             (0.475)**            
                   Strong rebels                               0.905              
                                                              (0.329)             
                   Oil                                         1.020              
                                                              (0.010)*            
                   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      1.044              
                                                              (0.021)*            
                   Muslim majority                             0.959              
                                                              (0.182)             
                   Islamist claim                                                 
                                                                                  
                   Muslim identity                                                
                                                                                  
                   Non-Islamist religious claims               1.516              
                                                              (0.461)             
                   N                                           6,194              
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox nonislamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.76231
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.65435
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.65428
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.65428

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       31.58
Log pseudolikelihood =   -642.65428             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |   .4161984   .3040127     1.37   0.171    -.1796555    1.012052
     territory |    .819041   .2095063     3.91   0.000     .4084162    1.229666
   strongstart |  -.0994319   .3632788    -0.27   0.784    -.8114451    .6125814
      oilstart |   .0198507   .0098303     2.02   0.043     .0005835    .0391178
  youthstartap |   .0431525   .0199973     2.16   0.031     .0039585    .0823465
 muslimajstart |   -.042314   .1898261    -0.22   0.824    -.4143664    .3297383
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      nonislamis~l|      0.04651         0.48        1         0.4901
      territory   |     -0.02052         0.08        1         0.7816
      strongstart |      0.10090         2.04        1         0.1533
      oilstart    |     -0.01776         0.05        1         0.8202
      youthstartap|     -0.08716         0.77        1         0.3802
      muslimajst~t|      0.08580         1.40        1         0.2359
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.42        6         0.7544
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A13
. ************************************************
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 4*
. stcox leftist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -377.27114             Prob > chi2      =      0.0485

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |    1.58292   .4303988     1.69   0.091     .9290001    2.697132
    territory |   .6252586   .1650121    -1.78   0.075     .3727511    1.048819
  strongstart |   1.129823   .3275494     0.42   0.674      .640084    1.994271
     oilstart |   .9817008   .0110199    -1.65   0.100      .960338    1.003539
 youthstartap |   .9844477   .0313438    -0.49   0.623     .9248925    1.047838
muslimajstart |   1.249085   .2696449     1.03   0.303     .8181631    1.906972
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A13.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A13.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Leftist                              1.583              
                                                           (0.430)+            
                       Territory                            0.625              
                                                           (0.165)+            
                       Strong rebels                        1.130              
                                                           (0.328)             
                       Oil                                  0.982              
                                                           (0.011)+            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.984              
                                                           (0.031)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.249              
                                                           (0.270)             
                       N                                    6,193              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox leftist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.29608
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.30645
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.27115
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.27114
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -377.27114

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.67
Log pseudolikelihood =   -377.27114             Prob > chi2      =      0.0485

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   .4592713   .2719018     1.69   0.091    -.0736465     .992189
    territory |    -.46959   .2639102    -1.78   0.075    -.9868444    .0476644
  strongstart |   .1220613   .2899121     0.42   0.674    -.4461559    .6902785
     oilstart |  -.0184687   .0112254    -1.65   0.100      -.04047    .0035326
 youthstartap |  -.0156745    .031839    -0.49   0.623    -.0780778    .0467287
muslimajstart |   .2224115   .2158739     1.03   0.303    -.2006935    .6455165
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      leftist     |      0.13298         1.14        1         0.2851
      territory   |      0.13428         0.83        1         0.3610
      strongstart |      0.25250         3.13        1         0.0768
      oilstart    |      0.10731         0.61        1         0.4355
      youthstartap|     -0.07057         0.33        1         0.5637
      muslimajst~t|     -0.02134         0.02        1         0.8841
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      5.13        6         0.5275
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *weibull instead of cox, without and with strata
. streg leftist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        7.75
Log pseudolikelihood =   -311.42581             Prob > chi2      =      0.2567

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   1.612073    .450745     1.71   0.088     .9319313    2.788596
    territory |   .7276699   .1909395    -1.21   0.226     .4350913    1.216994
  strongstart |   1.130771   .3381028     0.41   0.681     .6293085    2.031822
     oilstart |   .9883916   .0113894    -1.01   0.311      .966319    1.010968
 youthstartap |   .9928243   .0315606    -0.23   0.821     .9328543    1.056649
muslimajstart |   1.256844   .2704883     1.06   0.288     .8243136    1.916331
        _cons |   .0992115   .1097279    -2.09   0.037     .0113536    .8669429
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        /ln_p |  -1.011601   .0329493   -30.70   0.000    -1.076181    -.947022
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            p |   .3636362   .0119816                       .340895    .3878945
          1/p |   2.750001   .0906106                      2.578021    2.933455
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates are transformed only in the first equation.
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. streg leftist $X1, dist(weibull) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =      555.02
Log pseudolikelihood =   -308.96067             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_t            |
      leftist |    .481314   .2763277     1.74   0.082    -.0602783    1.022906
    territory |   -.357676   .2627496    -1.36   0.173    -.8726557    .1573037
  strongstart |   .1271081    .298717     0.43   0.670    -.4583663    .7125826
     oilstart |  -.0109314   .0115532    -0.95   0.344    -.0335753    .0117124
 youthstartap |  -.0089702   .0315373    -0.28   0.776    -.0707821    .0528418
muslimajstart |   .2406862   .2178591     1.10   0.269    -.1863098    .6676821
              |
        order |
           2  |    1.23744   2.427213     0.51   0.610     -3.51981    5.994689
           3  |  -.9634481   1.796337    -0.54   0.592    -4.484204    2.557308
           4  |  -6.829507   .3496666   -19.53   0.000    -7.514841   -6.144173
           5  |  -1.329832    5.03033    -0.26   0.792     -11.1891    8.529434
           6  |  -6.804661   .5893944   -11.55   0.000    -7.959853   -5.649469
           7  |  -6.839265   1.021198    -6.70   0.000    -8.840776   -4.837754
              |
        _cons |  -2.264683   1.094627    -2.07   0.039    -4.410113   -.1192525
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ln_p          |
        order |
           2  |  -.6089161    1.68374    -0.36   0.718    -3.908987    2.691155
           3  |   .2750661   .7352647     0.37   0.708    -1.166026    1.716158
           4  |  -11.14743   .0432903  -257.50   0.000    -11.23227   -11.06258
           5  |   1.225646   1.123994     1.09   0.276    -.9773428    3.428634
           6  |  -10.99401   .0338614  -324.68   0.000    -11.06037   -10.92764
           7  |  -10.91677   .0170874  -638.88   0.000    -10.95026   -10.88328
              |
        _cons |  -1.028138   .0171183   -60.06   0.000    -1.061689   -.9945864
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *exponential instead of cox, without and with strata
. streg leftist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        5.85
Log pseudolikelihood =   -367.01719             Prob > chi2      =      0.4406

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   1.382651   .3991297     1.12   0.262     .7852292    2.434607
    territory |   .6970161   .1870409    -1.35   0.179     .4119333    1.179393
  strongstart |   1.122479     .34487     0.38   0.707     .6146892    2.049751
     oilstart |   .9948643   .0122904    -0.42   0.677     .9710648    1.019247
 youthstartap |   .9955584   .0331927    -0.13   0.894      .932582    1.062787
muslimajstart |   1.274736    .281174     1.10   0.271     .8273077    1.964145
        _cons |   .0122835   .0141914    -3.81   0.000     .0012762    .1182315
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: _cons estimates baseline hazard.

. streg leftist $X1, dist(exponential) cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Exponential PH regression

No. of subjects      =          305             Number of obs    =       6,193
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6458.967041
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =     1404.25
Log pseudolikelihood =   -363.45064             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 305 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      leftist |   .4500574   .2988589     1.51   0.132    -.1356953     1.03581
    territory |  -.2431349   .2780799    -0.87   0.382    -.7881614    .3018916
  strongstart |   .1404246   .3113771     0.45   0.652    -.4698633    .7507124
     oilstart |  -.0009521   .0122783    -0.08   0.938     -.025017    .0231128
 youthstartap |  -.0009298   .0324918    -0.03   0.977    -.0646125    .0627529
muslimajstart |   .2925771   .2288686     1.28   0.201    -.1559971    .7411513
              |
        order |
           2  |  -.3623777   .3126867    -1.16   0.246    -.9752323     .250477
           3  |  -1.350386   1.021292    -1.32   0.186    -3.352082    .6513105
           4  |  -13.19149   .4475656   -29.47   0.000    -14.06871   -12.31428
           5  |   1.352875   1.065515     1.27   0.204    -.7354957    3.441245
           6  |  -13.21529   .6344834   -20.83   0.000    -14.45885   -11.97172
           7  |  -13.22446   1.033109   -12.80   0.000    -15.24932   -11.19961
              |
        _cons |   -4.54113   1.127024    -4.03   0.000    -6.750057   -2.332203
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Model 5*
. stcox islamist muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       15.36
Log pseudolikelihood =   -375.62121             Prob > chi2      =      0.0316

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.384589   .3751421     1.20   0.230     .8141328    2.354759
     muslimid |   1.946423   .6955095     1.86   0.062     .9662289    3.920979
    territory |   .4780704   .1342077    -2.63   0.009     .2757629    .8287964
  strongstart |   1.037034   .2770486     0.14   0.892     .6143136    1.750635
     oilstart |   .9816754   .0107732    -1.69   0.092     .9607858    1.003019
 youthstartap |   .9821284   .0299552    -0.59   0.554     .9251377     1.04263
muslimajstart |   .6225201   .2039078    -1.45   0.148     .3275975     1.18295
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A13.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Leftist                              1.583                                              
                                           (0.430)+                                            
       Territory                            0.625                           0.478              
                                           (0.165)+                       (0.134)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.130                           1.037              
                                           (0.328)                         (0.277)             
       Oil                                  0.982                           0.982              
                                           (0.011)+                        (0.011)+            
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               0.984                           0.982              
                                           (0.031)                         (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      1.249                           0.623              
                                           (0.270)                         (0.204)             
       Islamist claim                                                       1.385              
                                                                           (0.375)             
       Muslim identity                                                      1.946              
                                                                           (0.696)+            
       N                                    6,193                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist muslimid $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.76819
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.62128
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.62121
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.62121

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       15.36
Log pseudolikelihood =   -375.62121             Prob > chi2      =      0.0316

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .3254032   .2709412     1.20   0.230    -.2056317    .8564382
     muslimid |   .6659934    .357327     1.86   0.062    -.0343545    1.366341
    territory |  -.7379973   .2807279    -2.63   0.009    -1.288214   -.1877807
  strongstart |   .0363643   .2671549     0.14   0.892    -.4872497    .5599783
     oilstart |  -.0184946   .0109743    -1.69   0.092    -.0400038    .0030146
 youthstartap |  -.0180332   .0305003    -0.59   0.554    -.0778127    .0417464
muslimajstart |  -.4739793   .3275521    -1.45   0.148     -1.11597     .168011
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.14729         1.28        1         0.2586
      muslimid    |     -0.05695         0.21        1         0.6479
      territory   |      0.13367         0.73        1         0.3920
      strongstart |      0.20628         1.90        1         0.1681
      oilstart    |      0.18377         1.84        1         0.1751
      youthstartap|     -0.05861         0.18        1         0.6735
      muslimajst~t|      0.08264         0.36        1         0.5488
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      6.28        7         0.5078
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *Model 6*
. stcox nonislamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        9.99
Log pseudolikelihood =   -378.41688             Prob > chi2      =      0.1249

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |   .8155695   .4376111    -0.38   0.704     .2849251    2.334485
     territory |   .5653495   .1457818    -2.21   0.027     .3410555    .9371497
   strongstart |   1.012364   .2857344     0.04   0.965      .582223    1.760288
      oilstart |   .9829405   .0108352    -1.56   0.119     .9619316    1.004408
  youthstartap |   .9822014   .0304864    -0.58   0.563     .9242303    1.043809
 muslimajstart |   1.137454   .2441213     0.60   0.548     .7468751    1.732285
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A13.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Leftist                                     1.583                                              
                                              (0.430)+                                            
   Territory                                   0.625                           0.478              
                                              (0.165)+                       (0.134)**            
   Strong rebels                               1.130                           1.037              
                                              (0.328)                         (0.277)             
   Oil                                         0.982                           0.982              
                                              (0.011)+                        (0.011)+            
   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      0.984                           0.982              
                                              (0.031)                         (0.030)             
   Muslim majority                             1.249                           0.623              
                                              (0.270)                         (0.204)             
   Islamist claim                                                              1.385              
                                                                              (0.375)             
   Muslim identity                                                             1.946              
                                                                              (0.696)+            
   Non-Islamist religious claims                                                                  
                                                                                                  
   N                                           6,193                           6,194              
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   analysis time when record ends 
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                   Leftist                                                        
                                                                                  
                   Territory                                   0.565              
                                                              (0.146)*            
                   Strong rebels                               1.012              
                                                              (0.286)             
                   Oil                                         0.983              
                                                              (0.011)             
                   Youth bulge/adult pop.                      0.982              
                                                              (0.030)             
                   Muslim majority                             1.137              
                                                              (0.244)             
                   Islamist claim                                                 
                                                                                  
                   Muslim identity                                                
                                                                                  
                   Non-Islamist religious claims               0.816              
                                                              (0.438)             
                   N                                           6,194              
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox nonislamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.45185
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.41689
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.41688
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.41688

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =        9.99
Log pseudolikelihood =   -378.41688             Prob > chi2      =      0.1249

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nonislamistrel |  -.2038687   .5365712    -0.38   0.704    -1.255529    .8477915
     territory |  -.5703112   .2578614    -2.21   0.027     -1.07571   -.0649122
   strongstart |   .0122879   .2822448     0.04   0.965    -.5409018    .5654775
      oilstart |  -.0172067   .0110233    -1.56   0.119    -.0388119    .0043985
  youthstartap |  -.0179589   .0310389    -0.58   0.563     -.078794    .0428762
 muslimajstart |    .128792   .2146209     0.60   0.548    -.2918573    .5494413
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      nonislamis~l|      0.06728         0.26        1         0.6117
      territory   |      0.09163         0.34        1         0.5571
      strongstart |      0.21904         2.44        1         0.1185
      oilstart    |      0.14154         0.97        1         0.3250
      youthstartap|     -0.06291         0.24        1         0.6278
      muslimajst~t|     -0.03084         0.05        1         0.8281
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.10        6         0.6638
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A14
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*
. //See do-file on termination//
. 
. *number_group*
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. stcox islamist $X1 number_group, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       51.20
Log pseudolikelihood =   -639.41774             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.795863   .3629127     2.90   0.004     1.208537    2.668617
    territory |   2.237965   .4896036     3.68   0.000     1.457587    3.436151
  strongstart |   .9205021   .3378223    -0.23   0.821      .448369    1.889792
     oilstart |   1.018117   .0101093     1.81   0.071     .9984945    1.038125
 youthstartap |   1.041068   .0193129     2.17   0.030     1.003895    1.079617
muslimajstart |   .8571942   .1741235    -0.76   0.448     .5756692    1.276396
 number_group |   .7848133   .1143579    -1.66   0.096     .5898407    1.044234
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A14b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A14b.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.796              
                                                          (0.363)**            
                       Territory                            2.238              
                                                          (0.490)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.921              
                                                           (0.338)             
                       Oil                                  1.018              
                                                           (0.010)+            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.041              
                                                           (0.019)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.857              
                                                           (0.174)             
                       Number of groups                     0.785              
                                                           (0.114)+            
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox number_group $X1 , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -643.06744
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.96405
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.96402
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -642.96402

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       30.28
Log pseudolikelihood =   -642.96402             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 number_group |  -.1965778   .1446143    -1.36   0.174    -.4800166    .0868611
    territory |   .7925234   .2140571     3.70   0.000     .3729791    1.212068
  strongstart |  -.1467699   .3680309    -0.40   0.690    -.8680971    .5745574
     oilstart |   .0186332   .0098892     1.88   0.060    -.0007492    .0380156
 youthstartap |   .0437041   .0192854     2.27   0.023     .0059054    .0815027
muslimajstart |  -.0721142   .1881879    -0.38   0.702    -.4409558    .2967273
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      number_group|      0.04580         0.27        1         0.6033
      territory   |     -0.01282         0.03        1         0.8602
      strongstart |      0.10121         2.14        1         0.1434
      oilstart    |     -0.01927         0.06        1         0.8032
      youthstartap|     -0.08313         0.67        1         0.4120
      muslimajst~t|      0.07681         1.12        1         0.2894
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.19        6         0.7848
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 number_group, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(7)     =       64.27
Log pseudolikelihood =   -370.25543             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.500361   .3646463     1.67   0.095     .9317952    2.415856
    territory |   .6311877   .1672503    -1.74   0.082     .3754997    1.060981
  strongstart |   1.106627   .2989202     0.38   0.708     .6517426    1.878998
     oilstart |   .9887872   .0112242    -0.99   0.321     .9670311    1.011033
 youthstartap |   .9805568   .0310617    -0.62   0.535     .9215284    1.043366
muslimajstart |   .9772801   .2320675    -0.10   0.923     .6136073    1.556495
 number_group |   1.734452    .162567     5.88   0.000      1.44338    2.084221
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A14b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.796                           1.500              
                                          (0.363)**                        (0.365)+            
       Territory                            2.238                           0.631              
                                          (0.490)**                        (0.167)+            
       Strong rebels                        0.921                           1.107              
                                           (0.338)                         (0.299)             
       Oil                                  1.018                           0.989              
                                           (0.010)+                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.041                           0.981              
                                           (0.019)*                        (0.031)             
       Muslim majority                      0.857                           0.977              
                                           (0.174)                         (0.232)             
       Number of groups                     0.785                           1.734              
                                           (0.114)+                       (0.163)**            
       N                                    6,194                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox number_group $X1 , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood =  -373.9306
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -371.07709
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -371.05029
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -371.05029
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -371.05029

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       53.80
Log pseudolikelihood =   -371.05029             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 number_group |   .5720053   .0929721     6.15   0.000     .3897834    .7542272
    territory |  -.4405181   .2624831    -1.68   0.093    -.9549756    .0739394
  strongstart |   .1083258   .2736376     0.40   0.692    -.4279941    .6446457
     oilstart |  -.0099773     .01132    -0.88   0.378     -.032164    .0122094
 youthstartap |  -.0156674   .0320256    -0.49   0.625    -.0784363    .0471016
muslimajstart |   .0955367   .2097013     0.46   0.649    -.3154702    .5065436
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      number_group|     -0.00945         0.00        1         0.9574
      territory   |      0.04687         0.08        1         0.7721
      strongstart |      0.21413         2.20        1         0.1381
      oilstart    |      0.11474         0.61        1         0.4339
      youthstartap|     -0.05660         0.20        1         0.6529
      muslimajst~t|     -0.08562         0.33        1         0.5656
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.31        6         0.7690
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 number_group govmilsupport foreignfighter, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       68.04
Log pseudolikelihood =   -366.53028             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.130812   .2612063     0.53   0.595     .7190702    1.778318
     territory |   .8077575   .2231873    -0.77   0.440     .4699915    1.388264
   strongstart |   .9517603   .2555302    -0.18   0.854     .5623356    1.610867
      oilstart |   .9896694   .0109637    -0.94   0.349     .9684126    1.011393
  youthstartap |   .9772994   .0309193    -0.73   0.468     .9185393    1.039818
 muslimajstart |   .8759353   .2185388    -0.53   0.595     .5371606    1.428367
  number_group |    1.77549   .1720531     5.92   0.000     1.468361    2.146859
 govmilsupport |   1.842179   .4281548     2.63   0.009     1.168147    2.905133
foreignfighter |   2.088859   .5376161     2.86   0.004     1.261342    3.459278
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox number_group govmilsupport foreignfighter $X1 , cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) 
> schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -368.99438
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -366.60827
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -366.59717
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -366.59717
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -366.59717

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       66.54
Log pseudolikelihood =   -366.59717             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  number_group |   .5823187    .095736     6.08   0.000     .3946795    .7699578
 govmilsupport |   .6312724   .2351274     2.68   0.007     .1704311    1.092114
foreignfighter |   .7676037   .2588436     2.97   0.003     .2602795    1.274928
     territory |  -.1967676   .2771256    -0.71   0.478    -.7399238    .3463886
   strongstart |  -.0572089   .2693828    -0.21   0.832    -.5851895    .4707717
      oilstart |  -.0099388   .0109927    -0.90   0.366    -.0314841    .0116065
  youthstartap |  -.0220382   .0315615    -0.70   0.485    -.0838977    .0398213
 muslimajstart |  -.0983241   .2285147    -0.43   0.667    -.5462046    .3495565
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      number_group|     -0.01816         0.01        1         0.9156
      govmilsupp~t|      0.03188         0.04        1         0.8324
      foreignfig~r|     -0.04885         0.17        1         0.6788
      territory   |      0.04107         0.07        1         0.7917
      strongstart |      0.21586         1.97        1         0.1607
      oilstart    |      0.12661         0.70        1         0.4012
      youthstartap|     -0.05487         0.18        1         0.6720
      muslimajst~t|     -0.04271         0.11        1         0.7366
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      3.23        8         0.9194
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A15
. ************************************************
. 
. *duration and intensity*
. 
. *Model 1*
. //See do-file on termination//
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2*
. *violations, strong interacted with log of time
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.86837
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.68432
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.68423
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.68423

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       50.27
Log pseudolikelihood =   -639.68423             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .5517451   .2041141     2.70   0.007     .1516889    .9518013
     territory |   .8353713    .230753     3.62   0.000     .3831037    1.287639
   strongstart |  -.0927703   .3633402    -0.26   0.798    -.8049039    .6193633
      oilstart |   .0211396   .0103583     2.04   0.041     .0008376    .0414415
  youthstartap |   .0422036   .0190502     2.22   0.027     .0048658    .0795414
 muslimajstart |  -.1553053   .2049055    -0.76   0.448    -.5569127    .2463021
      duration |   .0083463   .0175286     0.48   0.634    -.0260091    .0427018
intensitylevel |    .370918   .2869928     1.29   0.196    -.1915775    .9334134
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.12104         3.12        1         0.0774
      territory   |     -0.03268         0.27        1         0.6046
      strongstart |      0.13933         4.25        1         0.0393
      oilstart    |     -0.02984         0.17        1         0.6809
      youthstartap|     -0.12001         1.52        1         0.2182
      muslimajst~t|      0.05782         0.69        1         0.4046
      duration    |      0.02733         0.18        1         0.6720
      intensityl~l|     -0.08120         1.19        1         0.2752
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.30        8         0.5051
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *gen strongstartt=strongstart*(_t)
. 
. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       51.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -638.99443             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.740352   .3563024     2.71   0.007      1.16512    2.599583
     territory |   2.286616   .5301924     3.57   0.000     1.451534     3.60213
   strongstart |   .5851715   .2722211    -1.15   0.249     .2351285    1.456334
      oilstart |   1.021653   .0105764     2.07   0.039     1.001132    1.042594
  youthstartap |    1.04303    .019873     2.21   0.027     1.004798    1.082717
 muslimajstart |    .848488   .1742258    -0.80   0.424     .5673652    1.268904
      duration |   1.008679   .0177164     0.49   0.623     .9745462    1.044007
intensitylevel |   1.428057   .4177277     1.22   0.223     .8049274     2.53358
  strongstartt |   1.069828   .0625926     1.15   0.249     .9539217    1.199818
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A15b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A15b.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.740              
                                                          (0.356)**            
                       Territory                            2.287              
                                                          (0.530)**            
                       Strong rebels                        0.585              
                                                           (0.272)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.011)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.043              
                                                           (0.020)*            
                       Muslim majority                      0.848              
                                                           (0.174)             
                       Duration                             1.009              
                                                           (0.018)             
                       War                                  1.428              
                                                           (0.418)             
                       strongstartt                         1.070              
                                                           (0.063)             
                       N                                    6,194              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca
> *) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.95923
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -639.20641
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.99455
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.99443
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -638.99443

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(9)     =       51.96
Log pseudolikelihood =   -638.99443             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .5540874   .2047301     2.71   0.007     .1528238     .955351
     territory |   .8270731   .2318677     3.57   0.000     .3726208    1.281525
   strongstart |  -.5358502   .4651987    -1.15   0.249    -1.447623    .3759225
      oilstart |   .0214218   .0103523     2.07   0.039     .0011318    .0417119
  youthstartap |   .0421297   .0190531     2.21   0.027     .0047862    .0794732
 muslimajstart |  -.1642993   .2053368    -0.80   0.424    -.5667521    .2381534
      duration |   .0086415    .017564     0.49   0.623    -.0257833    .0430663
intensitylevel |    .356315   .2925147     1.22   0.223    -.2170032    .9296332
  strongstartt |   .0674982   .0585071     1.15   0.249    -.0471737    .1821701
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.09530         2.04        1         0.1536
      territory   |     -0.02696         0.20        1         0.6555
      strongstart |      0.04292         0.25        1         0.6203
      oilstart    |     -0.01963         0.07        1         0.7876
      youthstartap|     -0.10124         1.06        1         0.3040
      muslimajst~t|      0.03732         0.29        1         0.5878
      duration    |      0.02322         0.14        1         0.7062
      intensityl~l|     -0.07506         1.12        1         0.2889
      strongstartt|      0.02629         0.17        1         0.6779
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      4.29        9         0.8912
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 3*
. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       23.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -374.76876             Prob > chi2      =      0.0024

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   1.737934   .4387852     2.19   0.029     1.059561    2.850628
     territory |   .5786604   .1538652    -2.06   0.040     .3436292    .9744452
   strongstart |   1.027188   .2862479     0.10   0.923     .5949003    1.773599
      oilstart |   .9835936   .0110025    -1.48   0.139     .9622637    1.005396
  youthstartap |   .9744993   .0295735    -0.85   0.395     .9182264    1.034221
 muslimajstart |   .9397488   .2183561    -0.27   0.789     .5959778    1.481813
      duration |   .9898123   .0242697    -0.42   0.676     .9433695    1.038542
intensitylevel |   1.988139    .495233     2.76   0.006     1.220163    3.239483
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A15b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standar
> d errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.740                           1.738              
                                          (0.356)**                        (0.439)*            
       Territory                            2.287                           0.579              
                                          (0.530)**                        (0.154)*            
       Strong rebels                        0.585                           1.027              
                                           (0.272)                         (0.286)             
       Oil                                  1.022                           0.984              
                                           (0.011)*                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.043                           0.974              
                                           (0.020)*                        (0.030)             
       Muslim majority                      0.848                           0.940              
                                           (0.174)                         (0.218)             
       Duration                             1.009                           0.990              
                                           (0.018)                         (0.024)             
       War                                  1.428                           1.988              
                                           (0.418)                        (0.495)**            
       strongstartt                         1.070                                              
                                           (0.063)                                             
       N                                    6,194                           6,194              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 duration intensitylevel, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld
> (sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -382.49707
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -375.36205
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.77068
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.76876
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.76876
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.76876

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          306             Number of obs    =       6,194
No. of failures      =           71
Time at risk         =  6459.957031
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       23.83
Log pseudolikelihood =   -374.76876             Prob > chi2      =      0.0024

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 306 clusters in dyadid)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
            _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      islamist |   .5526969   .2524752     2.19   0.029     .0578546    1.047539
     territory |  -.5470396   .2658991    -2.06   0.040    -1.068192    -.025887
   strongstart |   .0268246   .2786715     0.10   0.923    -.5193615    .5730107
      oilstart |  -.0165424   .0111861    -1.48   0.139    -.0384667    .0053818
  youthstartap |  -.0258315   .0303474    -0.85   0.395    -.0853113    .0336483
 muslimajstart |  -.0621427   .2323559    -0.27   0.789    -.5175518    .3932664
      duration |  -.0102399   .0245195    -0.42   0.676    -.0582973    .0378174
intensitylevel |    .687199   .2490938     2.76   0.006     .1989842    1.175414
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.15047         1.21        1         0.2715
      territory   |      0.08681         0.30        1         0.5847
      strongstart |      0.18507         1.76        1         0.1851
      oilstart    |      0.19690         2.09        1         0.1482
      youthstartap|     -0.03713         0.08        1         0.7829
      muslimajst~t|      0.01852         0.02        1         0.8982
      duration    |      0.03839         0.09        1         0.7589
      intensityl~l|      0.15353         1.31        1         0.2530
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      6.07        8         0.6390
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. *high-intensity and low-intensity conflicts*
. unique dyadid if intensity==2 & islamist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  6
Number of records is  93

. unique dyadid if islamist==1
Number of unique values of dyadid is  53
Number of records is  724

. *6 out of 53, 11%
. 
. unique dyadid if intensity==2 & islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  41
Number of records is  740

. unique dyadid if islamist==0
Number of unique values of dyadid is  314
Number of records is  6203

. *41 out of 314, 13%
. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A16
. ************************************************
. 
. *different forms of peace agreements
. *termination type and PKO*
. 
. *Recurrence*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
        172  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 1* PKO
. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca panotfull pafull rebv lowcease if outcome !=., cluster(dyadid) strata(orde
> r) nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       73.15
Log pseudolikelihood =   -629.11974             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.655513   .3353499     2.49   0.013     1.113034    2.462389
    territory |   2.060095   .4623183     3.22   0.001     1.326979    3.198236
  strongstart |   1.206202   .4829669     0.47   0.640     .5502957    2.643892
     oilstart |    1.02214   .0108175     2.07   0.039     1.001156    1.043563
 youthstartap |   1.035225   .0197163     1.82   0.069     .9972941    1.074599
muslimajstart |   .8485246   .1776243    -0.78   0.433     .5629629    1.278937
          pko |   .7360634   .1171281    -1.93   0.054      .538847     1.00546
           ca |   2.851493   1.167424     2.56   0.010     1.278155    6.361523
    panotfull |   1.837654   .9354497     1.20   0.232     .6775846    4.983841
       pafull |   1.917247   1.052595     1.19   0.236     .6536673    5.623404
         rebv |    .950882   .6794379    -0.07   0.944     .2343764    3.857797
     lowcease |   3.479869   1.195502     3.63   0.000     1.774737    6.823255
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A16.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A16.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       1.656              
                                                           (0.335)*            
                       Territory                            2.060              
                                                          (0.462)**            
                       Strong rebels                        1.206              
                                                           (0.483)             
                       Oil                                  1.022              
                                                           (0.011)*            
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.035              
                                                           (0.020)+            
                       Muslim majority                      0.849              
                                                           (0.178)             
                       Peacekeeping presence                0.736              
                                                           (0.117)+            
                       Ceasefire agreement                  2.851              
                                                           (1.167)*            
                       panotfull                            1.838              
                                                           (0.935)             
                       pafull                               1.917              
                                                           (1.053)             
                       Rebel victory                        0.951              
                                                           (0.679)             
                       Low activity                         3.480              
                                                          (1.196)**            
                       N                                    6,144              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca panotfull pafull rebv lowcease if outcome !=., cluster(dyadid) strata(orde
> r) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -657.32354
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.90399
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.12692
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.11975
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.11974
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -629.11974

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =          149
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       73.15
Log pseudolikelihood =   -629.11974             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5041109   .2025656     2.49   0.013     .1070896    .9011321
    territory |   .7227521    .224416     3.22   0.001     .2829047    1.162599
  strongstart |   .1874762   .4004031     0.47   0.640    -.5972995    .9722519
     oilstart |    .021898   .0105832     2.07   0.039     .0011554    .0426406
 youthstartap |   .0346188   .0190454     1.82   0.069    -.0027096    .0719472
muslimajstart |  -.1642562   .2093331    -0.78   0.433    -.5745416    .2460292
          pko |  -.3064391   .1591277    -1.93   0.054    -.6183237    .0054455
           ca |   1.047843   .4094081     2.56   0.010     .2454178    1.850268
    panotfull |   .6084899   .5090455     1.20   0.232    -.3892209    1.606201
       pafull |   .6508902   .5490137     1.19   0.236    -.4251568    1.726937
         rebv |  -.0503653   .7145343    -0.07   0.944    -1.450827    1.350096
     lowcease |   1.246995   .3435482     3.63   0.000     .5736525    1.920337
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.10579         2.36        1         0.1241
      territory   |      0.00819         0.01        1         0.9089
      strongstart |      0.09822         2.27        1         0.1322
      oilstart    |      0.01597         0.05        1         0.8247
      youthstartap|     -0.11115         1.26        1         0.2625
      muslimajst~t|      0.06687         0.95        1         0.3296
      pko         |      0.01670         0.03        1         0.8587
      ca          |     -0.07718         1.04        1         0.3085
      panotfull   |     -0.04571         0.26        1         0.6108
      pafull      |      0.00269         0.00        1         0.9726
      rebv        |     -0.02004         0.07        1         0.7911
      lowcease    |     -0.06057         0.51        1         0.4761
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      7.24       12         0.8414
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. *Recurrence-new*
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,927  observations remaining, representing
        367  subjects
         80  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  7,215.326  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. *Model 2* PKO
. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca panotfull pafull rebv lowcease if outcome !=., cluster(dyadid) strata(orde
> r) nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =           69
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       30.85
Log pseudolikelihood =   -357.78617             Prob > chi2      =      0.0021

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.667706   .4067757     2.10   0.036     1.033951    2.689917
    territory |   .4711661   .1288665    -2.75   0.006     .2756549    .8053457
  strongstart |   1.152288   .3615788     0.45   0.651     .6229605    2.131382
     oilstart |   .9831964   .0105058    -1.59   0.113     .9628196    1.004004
 youthstartap |   .9869576   .0305257    -0.42   0.671     .9289056    1.048638
muslimajstart |   .8597754   .2040843    -0.64   0.524     .5399281    1.369097
          pko |   1.617729   .3434242     2.27   0.023     1.067102     2.45248
           ca |   1.845227   1.174459     0.96   0.336     .5299959    6.424316
    panotfull |    2.84012   1.743675     1.70   0.089     .8526027    9.460777
       pafull |   1.229309   .8956694     0.28   0.777     .2947671     5.12676
         rebv |   2.820349   1.757002     1.66   0.096      .831816    9.562657
     lowcease |   3.803864   1.945083     2.61   0.009     1.396266    10.36291
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A16.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Islamist claim                       1.656                           1.668              
                                           (0.335)*                        (0.407)*            
       Territory                            2.060                           0.471              
                                          (0.462)**                       (0.129)**            
       Strong rebels                        1.206                           1.152              
                                           (0.483)                         (0.362)             
       Oil                                  1.022                           0.983              
                                           (0.011)*                        (0.011)             
       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.035                           0.987              
                                           (0.020)+                        (0.031)             
       Muslim majority                      0.849                           0.860              
                                           (0.178)                         (0.204)             
       Peacekeeping presence                0.736                           1.618              
                                           (0.117)+                        (0.343)*            
       Ceasefire agreement                  2.851                           1.845              
                                           (1.167)*                        (1.174)             
       panotfull                            1.838                           2.840              
                                           (0.935)                         (1.744)+            
       pafull                               1.917                           1.229              
                                           (1.053)                         (0.896)             
       Rebel victory                        0.951                           2.820              
                                           (0.679)                         (1.757)+            
       Low activity                         3.480                           3.804              
                                          (1.196)**                       (1.945)**            
       N                                    6,144                           6,144              
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 pko ca panotfull pafull rebv lowcease if outcome !=., cluster(dyadid) strata(orde
> r) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -370.67357
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.17733
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.78873
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.78617
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.78617
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -357.78617

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          304             Number of obs    =       6,144
No. of failures      =           69
Time at risk         =  6409.977051
                                                Wald chi2(12)    =       30.85
Log pseudolikelihood =   -357.78617             Prob > chi2      =      0.0021

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 304 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5114491   .2439133     2.10   0.036     .0333879    .9895104
    territory |  -.7525445   .2735055    -2.75   0.006    -1.288605   -.2164836
  strongstart |   .1417492   .3137922     0.45   0.651    -.4732722    .7567705
     oilstart |  -.0169464   .0106853    -1.59   0.113    -.0378892    .0039964
 youthstartap |  -.0131282   .0309291    -0.42   0.671    -.0737482    .0474918
muslimajstart |  -.1510841   .2373693    -0.64   0.524    -.6163193    .3141511
          pko |   .4810231   .2122879     2.27   0.023     .0649465    .8970997
           ca |   .6126021   .6364852     0.96   0.336     -.634886     1.86009
    panotfull |   1.043846   .6139439     1.70   0.089    -.1594616    2.247154
       pafull |   .2064521   .7285959     0.28   0.777     -1.22157    1.634474
         rebv |   1.036861   .6229731     1.66   0.096    -.1841441    2.257866
     lowcease |   1.336017    .511344     2.61   0.009     .3338015    2.338233
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.11192         0.77        1         0.3817
      territory   |      0.10077         0.40        1         0.5283
      strongstart |      0.10694         0.64        1         0.4248
      oilstart    |      0.14697         1.07        1         0.3014
      youthstartap|     -0.02485         0.03        1         0.8560
      muslimajst~t|      0.04838         0.12        1         0.7264
      pko         |      0.13898         1.02        1         0.3126
      ca          |      0.06782         0.35        1         0.5553
      panotfull   |      0.03891         0.10        1         0.7487
      pafull      |     -0.02363         0.04        1         0.8429
      rebv        |      0.07332         0.39        1         0.5316
      lowcease    |      0.02269         0.04        1         0.8420
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      6.08       12         0.9120
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
end of do-file

. do "/Users/desinils/Desirée's PCR team Dropbox/Desirée Nilsson/2012-2014/Forskningsprojekt/Jihadis
> t Peace/Negotiation and religion/Islamist Claims & Recurrence/Submission-ISQ/Resubmission-ISQ/Intrac
> tability_final_submitted/Replication files-Intractability-ISQ/Intractability-replication-zip-files/T
> woyeargap_replication.do"

. /***************************************************************************************************
> *
>                 
> Replication file 3 out of 3 for:
> "The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies: Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War"
> Desirée Nilsson & Isak Svensson
> International Studies Quarterly
> Last updated: 20 April 2021
> 
> ***************************************************************************************************/
. 
. **Termination: two-year gap instead of 1-year gap**
. 
. clear all

. use "Termination-data-2years-ISQ.dta"

. sort dyadid year

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
. ************************************************
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_con) enter(time start_of_segment) failure
> (term==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  term == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_con

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      1,995  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      1,995  observations remaining, representing
        386  subjects
        447  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  2,393.136  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CONTROL VARIABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. global X1 territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A6
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 1*     
. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) nolog

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,725
No. of failures      =          365
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.98
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1638.0308             Prob > chi2      =      0.0433

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .6608503   .0915986    -2.99   0.003     .5036404     .867133
    territory |   .8293898   .1060511    -1.46   0.143     .6455332    1.065611
  strongstart |   1.154573   .1586682     1.05   0.296     .8819509    1.511467
     oilstart |   1.003464     .00507     0.68   0.494     .9935755     1.01345
 youthstartap |   1.000176   .0127829     0.01   0.989      .975433    1.025546
muslimajstart |   1.140874   .1155435     1.30   0.193     .9354728    1.391375
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A6a.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A6a.doc not found)
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                analysis time when record ends 
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                       Islamist claim                       0.661              
                                                          (0.092)**            
                       Territory                            0.829              
                                                           (0.106)             
                       Strong rebels                        1.155              
                                                           (0.159)             
                       Oil                                  1.003              
                                                           (0.005)             
                       Youth bulge/adult pop.               1.000              
                                                           (0.013)             
                       Muslim majority                      1.141              
                                                           (0.116)             
                       N                                    1,725              
                      ----------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  term == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_con
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1643.4365
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -1638.0609
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -1638.0308
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -1638.0308
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -1638.0308

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          309             Number of obs    =       1,725
No. of failures      =          365
Time at risk         =  2060.906982
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.98
Log pseudolikelihood =   -1638.0308             Prob > chi2      =      0.0433

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 309 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |  -.4142279   .1386071    -2.99   0.003    -.6858928   -.1425629
    territory |   -.187065   .1278664    -1.46   0.143    -.4376786    .0635486
  strongstart |   .1437308   .1374259     1.05   0.296    -.1256189    .4130806
     oilstart |   .0034575   .0050525     0.68   0.494    -.0064452    .0133603
 youthstartap |   .0001759   .0127807     0.01   0.989    -.0248738    .0252255
muslimajstart |   .1317947   .1012763     1.30   0.193    -.0667032    .3302925
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.03301         0.33        1         0.5666
      territory   |      0.01139         0.04        1         0.8334
      strongstart |     -0.02542         0.14        1         0.7055
      oilstart    |     -0.02679         0.21        1         0.6478
      youthstartap|      0.02152         0.13        1         0.7168
      muslimajst~t|      0.03673         0.38        1         0.5402
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      1.74        6         0.9422
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. **Recurrence: two-year gap instead of 1-year gap**
. 
. clear all

. use "Recurrence-data-2years-ISQ.dta"

. sort dyadid year

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS - RECURRENCE
. ************************************************
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(firstrecur==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  firstrecur == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,783  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,783  observations remaining, representing
        361  subjects
        100  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  6,984.386  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * CONTROL VARIABELS
. ************************************************
. 
. global X1 territory strongstart oilstart youthstartap muslimajstart

. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A6
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model 2*
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -391.42117
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.69054
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.33496
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.33447
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -372.33447

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       6,056
No. of failures      =           80
Time at risk         =   6238.00708
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       54.49
Log pseudolikelihood =   -372.33447             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .7566638   .2828558     2.68   0.007     .2022765    1.311051
    territory |   .9958404   .2744705     3.63   0.000     .4578882    1.533793
  strongstart |   .0629724   .5100631     0.12   0.902    -.9367329    1.062678
     oilstart |   .0381913   .0125086     3.05   0.002      .013675    .0627077
 youthstartap |   .0202735   .0278272     0.73   0.466    -.0342669    .0748139
muslimajstart |  -.0503499   .2739081    -0.18   0.854    -.5871999    .4865001
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.05429         0.43        1         0.5099
      territory   |     -0.06814         0.35        1         0.5552
      strongstart |      0.23417         5.80        1         0.0161
      oilstart    |     -0.03901         0.17        1         0.6832
      youthstartap|     -0.31365         7.25        1         0.0071
      muslimajst~t|      0.04581         0.24        1         0.6231
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                     13.94        6         0.0303
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. gen strongstartt=strongstart*ln(_t)
(190 missing values generated)

. gen youthstartapt=youthstartap*ln(_t)
(500 missing values generated)

. 
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1 youthstartapt strongstartt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenf
> eld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -391.42117
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -361.25105
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.50958
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.35376
Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.35325
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -358.35325

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       6,056
No. of failures      =           80
Time at risk         =   6238.00708
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       77.28
Log pseudolikelihood =   -358.35325             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .8683837   .2884543     3.01   0.003     .3030237    1.433744
    territory |   1.179838   .2888379     4.08   0.000     .6137266     1.74595
  strongstart |   -3.31392   1.172989    -2.83   0.005    -5.612936   -1.014903
     oilstart |   .0379206    .012486     3.04   0.002     .0134485    .0623927
 youthstartap |   .3278426   .0786907     4.17   0.000     .1736117    .4820735
muslimajstart |  -.1060297   .2802314    -0.38   0.705    -.6552732    .4432139
youthstartapt |  -.1568268   .0356266    -4.40   0.000    -.2266536   -.0869999
 strongstartt |   1.813876   .5423076     3.34   0.001     .7509724    2.876779
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |      0.07178         0.77        1         0.3796
      territory   |     -0.04574         0.21        1         0.6503
      strongstart |      0.13977         0.66        1         0.4167
      oilstart    |      0.00064         0.00        1         0.9948
      youthstartap|      0.06017         0.26        1         0.6083
      muslimajst~t|     -0.02871         0.10        1         0.7484
      youthstart~t|     -0.03996         0.13        1         0.7223
      strongstartt|     -0.10299         0.43        1         0.5139
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      2.46        8         0.9636
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. stcox islamist $X1 strongstartt youthstartapt, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  firstrecur == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       6,056
No. of failures      =           80
Time at risk         =   6238.00708
                                                Wald chi2(8)     =       77.28
Log pseudolikelihood =   -358.35325             Prob > chi2      =      0.0000

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   2.383056   .6874027     3.01   0.003     1.353947    4.194372
    territory |   3.253848   .9398346     4.08   0.000     1.847303    5.731345
  strongstart |   .0363733   .0426655    -2.83   0.005     .0036503    .3624376
     oilstart |   1.038649   .0129686     3.04   0.002     1.013539     1.06438
 youthstartap |   1.387971   .1092203     4.17   0.000     1.189594    1.619429
muslimajstart |    .899398   .2520396    -0.38   0.705     .5193002    1.557705
 strongstartt |   6.134177   3.326611     3.34   0.001      2.11906    17.75699
youthstartapt |   .8548521   .0304555    -4.40   0.000     .7971969    .9166771
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A6b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) replace
(note: file appendix-A6b.doc not found)
                          -------------------------------------------------
                                           analysis time when record ends 
                          -------------------------------------------------
                           islamist                    2.383              
                                                     (0.687)**            
                           territory                   3.254              
                                                     (0.940)**            
                           strongstart                 0.036              
                                                     (0.043)**            
                           oilstart                    1.039              
                                                     (0.013)**            
                           youthstartap                1.388              
                                                     (0.109)**            
                           muslimajstart               0.899              
                                                      (0.252)             
                           strongstartt                6.134              
                                                     (3.327)**            
                           youthstartapt               0.855              
                                                     (0.030)**            
                           N                           6,056              
                          -------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. 
. ************************************************
. * STSET FOR SURVIVAL ANALYSIS - RECURRENCE-NEW
. ************************************************
. 
. stset end_of_segment, id(dyadid) origin(time first_year_of_peace) enter(time start_of_segment) failu
> re(newrecur1==1) exit(time .)

                id:  dyadid
     failure event:  newrecur1 == 1
obs. time interval:  (end_of_segment[_n-1], end_of_segment]
 enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
 exit on or before:  time .
    t for analysis:  (time-origin)
            origin:  time first_year_of_peace

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,783  total observations
          0  exclusions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      6,783  observations remaining, representing
        361  subjects
         76  failures in multiple-failure-per-subject data
  6,984.386  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t =         0
                                     earliest observed entry t =         0
                                          last observed exit t =  38.98999

. 
. ************************************************
. * TABLE A6
. ************************************************
. 
. *Model3*
. capture drop sch* sca*

. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order) scaledsch(sca*) schoenfeld(sch*) nohr

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -378.71941
Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.25701
Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.14159
Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.14152
Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = -374.14152

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       6,056
No. of failures      =           68
Time at risk         =   6238.00708
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.94
Log pseudolikelihood =   -374.14152             Prob > chi2      =      0.0440

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   .5951728   .2651378     2.24   0.025     .0755122    1.114833
    territory |  -.4724002   .2583309    -1.83   0.067    -.9787194    .0339191
  strongstart |   .1037712   .2808159     0.37   0.712    -.4466179    .6541602
     oilstart |  -.0169833   .0112519    -1.51   0.131    -.0390367    .0050701
 youthstartap |  -.0143049   .0315368    -0.45   0.650    -.0761159    .0475062
muslimajstart |  -.0606271   .2398905    -0.25   0.800    -.5308039    .4095496
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. stphtest, rank detail

      Test of proportional-hazards assumption

      Time:  Rank(t)
      ----------------------------------------------------------------
                  |       rho            chi2       df       Prob>chi2
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      islamist    |     -0.00731         0.00        1         0.9572
      territory   |      0.20231         1.43        1         0.2312
      strongstart |      0.13548         0.85        1         0.3560
      oilstart    |      0.08041         0.31        1         0.5779
      youthstartap|     -0.02345         0.03        1         0.8615
      muslimajst~t|     -0.00042         0.00        1         0.9976
      ------------+---------------------------------------------------
      global test |                      2.69        6         0.8461
      ----------------------------------------------------------------

note: robust variance-covariance matrix used.

. 
. stcox islamist $X1, cluster(dyadid) strata(order)  nolog

         failure _d:  newrecur1 == 1
   analysis time _t:  (end_of_segment-origin)
             origin:  time first_year_of_peace
  enter on or after:  time start_of_segment
  exit on or before:  time .
                 id:  dyadid

Stratified Cox regr. -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      =          301             Number of obs    =       6,056
No. of failures      =           68
Time at risk         =   6238.00708
                                                Wald chi2(6)     =       12.94
Log pseudolikelihood =   -374.14152             Prob > chi2      =      0.0440

                                (Std. Err. adjusted for 301 clusters in dyadid)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
           _t | Haz. Ratio   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     islamist |   1.813344   .4807862     2.24   0.025     1.078436     3.04906
    territory |    .623504   .1610703    -1.83   0.067      .375792    1.034501
  strongstart |   1.109347   .3115221     0.37   0.712     .6397884    1.923526
     oilstart |   .9831601   .0110625    -1.51   0.131     .9617154    1.005083
 youthstartap |   .9857969   .0310889    -0.45   0.650     .9267088    1.048653
muslimajstart |   .9411741   .2257787    -0.25   0.800      .588132    1.506139
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Stratified by order

. outreg using appendix-A6b.doc, se var hr starlevels(10 5 1) sigsymbols(+,*,**) note (Robust standard
>  errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.) merge

          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           analysis time when record ends  analysis time when record ends 
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           islamist                    2.383                           1.813              
                                     (0.687)**                        (0.481)*            
           territory                   3.254                           0.624              
                                     (0.940)**                        (0.161)+            
           strongstart                 0.036                           1.109              
                                     (0.043)**                        (0.312)             
           oilstart                    1.039                           0.983              
                                     (0.013)**                        (0.011)             
           youthstartap                1.388                           0.986              
                                     (0.109)**                        (0.031)             
           muslimajstart               0.899                           0.941              
                                      (0.252)                         (0.226)             
           strongstartt                6.134                                              
                                     (3.327)**                                            
           youthstartapt               0.855                                              
                                     (0.030)**                                            
           N                           6,056                           6,056              
          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered on dyad.


. 
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
. ****************************************************************************************************
> ********************************************************************************
. 
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/desinils/Desirée's PCR team Dropbox/Desirée Nilsson/2012-2014/Forskningsprojekt/
> Jihadist Peace/Negotiation and religion/Islamist Claims & Recurrence/Submission-ISQ/Resubmission-ISQ
> /Intractability_final_submitted/Replication files-Intractability-ISQ/Intractability-replication-zip-
> files/Log-Intractability-ISQ.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  22 Jun 2021, 10:52:13
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